Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

I'd say he's more of a Littlefinger personally

[Tamas]

Dom now has corona virus symptoms.

Wish him well for me, please. And you take care, too. Neither of you are high risk though, no?

I think he meant Dominic Cummings. At least that's how I interpreted it when I said it was a silver lining

[Caliga]

I was afraid you meant Dom DeLuise, but then I remembered he had already died.

[mongers]

Dom now has corona virus symptoms.

Wish him well for me, please. And you take care, too. Neither of you are high risk though, no?

Yes, my best wishes to you both, Gabby.

Umm, I don't personally know anyone named Dom (nor would I refer to my husband as my Dom).

That's Dominic Cummings that I meant, the would be Varys of the UK.

Well that's a relief.

I was just following Meri's lead, assuming she knew your domestic setup.

Also now I see it was referring to Cummings, when I first saw the text allert on the news I read it as ".... Cummings has symptoms and is self-loathing."

[Fate]

1.6 million to 2 million seems quite high--that is 0.5% of the US population. There is no guarantee that many would die even if every single person in the country was infected--which is implausible.

The US may be the leader in the number of confirmed cases but at this point testing has ramped up. For example, France and the US have about the same number of deaths (2,606 versus 2,608), but the US has significantly more confirmed cases (145,131 versus 40,174). It would seem we are doing a much better job of testing than France (alternatively covid19 patients in the US could be getting superior healthcare, or the patients may be healthier coming into treatment).

In any event, adjusted for per capita numbers, at least right now, Canada should be thankful they have the US as a neighbor versus most countries in Western Europe.

Every single person being infected is implausible, but 60-80% of the population is projected to get it.  Combine that with an estimated fatality rate of 1% and there you have your 1.6 to 2 million.

US certainly is ramping up testing efforts.  You also have a much larger population.

Maybe we're lucky to have the US as a neighbour.  Or maybe you're just 2 weeks behind Italy.

When people say 60-80% they're usually referencing models that have three cycles of seasonal infections. 20-30% may be closer to what could happen in this first season. Hopefully there's a vaccine in 18 months.

[Syt]

That's Dominic Cummings that I meant, the would be Varys of the UK.

I thought this might be about Dominic Raab.

[Sheilbh]

That's Dominic Cummings that I meant, the would be Varys of the UK.

I thought this might be about Dominic Raab.

I assume our, God help us, designated survivor is well cocooned

[alfred russel]

Every single person being infected is implausible, but 60-80% of the population is projected to get it.  Combine that with an estimated fatality rate of 1% and there you have your 1.6 to 2 million.

US certainly is ramping up testing efforts.  You also have a much larger population.

Maybe we're lucky to have the US as a neighbour.  Or maybe you're just 2 weeks behind Italy.

I just want to go on record again as saying that when this all shakes out, the mortality rate for all infected people will be less than 1%.

[Syt]

[Iormlund]

I can manage as long as they don't poke inside my pee-pee again.

[Tamas]

I'd say he's more of a Littlefinger personally

Goebbels is more apt.

[mongers]

Good grief a genuinely useful twitter post by someone. :gasp:

Though if people are paying close attention to the tv news footage you can see it's along swab and nearly all people wince/jump as it goes in further than expected.

[crazy canuck]

And don't generalize US results to the rest of the world.  Your nation has become the world leader for infections.

You need to take a chill pill already.

Ironic that I have to tell you to look at the stats.

[Sheilbh]

The government slides have been unleashed. Interesting comment from the Chief Scientific Advisor that the hospitalisation rate is continuing at about 1,000 a day but not accelerating though there may be minor fluctuations but they're not seeing a "rapid increase" current expectation is that it will stay at that level for around 2-3 weeks and then hopefully start to decline. That's in the top slide of these two - also public transport usage down to about 10% of normal which shows effect of distancing:


Sadiq Khan seemed to echo that by saying that London should peak in 2-4 weeks.

And Sir Patrick Vallance doesn't expect the "new" ONS numbers to be particularly large.

[Tamas]

John Prine is in critical condition.