Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Just a random thought that occurred to me - and God willing it doesn't happen - but it's a lovely sunny day today.

This social isolation/distancing phase is going to last for at least 3 months. Would any of our states have the capacity to deal with another crisis? Say if there was a heatwave, or flooding, or wildfires - or would it all just fall over?

[Legbiter]

Just a random thought that occurred to me - and God willing it doesn't happen - but it's a lovely sunny day today.

This social isolation/distancing phase is going to last for at least 3 months. Would any of our states have the capacity to deal with another crisis? Say if there was a heatwave, or flooding, or wildfires - or would it all just fall over?

We already have our hands full with this one I'd say.

Right now here people are scared and complying with public health measures. Once the fear subsides and the devastating economic consequences kick in that will turn to anger. The next 3 months will be excruciatingly painful as the Great Depression kicks in.

[Hamilcar]

Just a random thought that occurred to me - and God willing it doesn't happen - but it's a lovely sunny day today.

This social isolation/distancing phase is going to last for at least 3 months. Would any of our states have the capacity to deal with another crisis? Say if there was a heatwave, or flooding, or wildfires - or would it all just fall over?

It will be a couple of weeks at most. The economy can't take more.

[Fate]

What the economy can take now will change once we see NYTimes headlines of 2,000 dead in a day in New York City for a week straight. We're still fighting a war in Afghanistan and Iraq over a one time event where 2,996 people who died in one day.

[Sheilbh]

Today's ministerial breifing is from Department of Environment, Food and Retail Affairs with the head of the British Retail Consortium and NHS Director. Really hammering home the message that people need to stop being dicks.

Also I've seen loads about people being abusive towards supermarket staff and deliver people. That's never okay, but especially at the moment make me very, very angry.

For fuck's sake Brits
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/20/brits-ignore-governments-plea-go-one-last-pint-pubs-shut-12433313/

Edit: Also cases in Scotland have gone up by about 50% in the last day - I wonder if there's maybe a couple of areas there that are, like London, a little ahead of the curve. Maybe Glasgow (strong links to Italy - so could see people being on holiday in February) or Edinburgh?

[Monoriu]

Britain is a nation of gentlemen 

[Iormlund]

It will be a couple of weeks at most. The economy can't take more.

A couple weeks will do nothing. You can infect other people for a long ass time. Since before you present symptoms to more than a week after those disappear. And then you're back to exponential growth.

Unless you can isolate and provide for those at risk you need to reset the entire country. That's going to take at least a couple months, going by China's example.

[Sheilbh]

It will be a couple of weeks at most. The economy can't take more.

A couple weeks will do nothing. You can infect other people for a long ass time. Since before you present symptoms to more than a week after those disappear. And then you're back to exponential growth.

Unless you can isolate and provide for those at risk you need to reset the entire country. That's going to take at least a couple months, going by China's example.

Yeah - and it takes about two weeks for the lockdown to show an effect and start to "flatten the curve".

Plus I think China will be interesting because they are beginning to lift the restrictions and we'll see if there's a bounceback - and if what we're moving to is a long period of "adaptive suppression" where there's a base level of restrictions on what people can do, with stricter measures implemented whenever there's an indication of a pick-up in cases.

[Eddie Teach]

Britain is a nation of gentlemen 

Not when soccer is involved.

[crazy canuck]

Just a random thought that occurred to me - and God willing it doesn't happen - but it's a lovely sunny day today.

This social isolation/distancing phase is going to last for at least 3 months. Would any of our states have the capacity to deal with another crisis? Say if there was a heatwave, or flooding, or wildfires - or would it all just fall over?

It will be a couple of weeks at most. The economy can't take more.

We are long past the economy being the predominant concern

[mongers]

More boring impressions on the travel front.

Got into town early enough to risk getting a Mother's Day card; lots of people around, very few of them trying to zigzag to keep distances open. Friends obviously seeing each other and stopping to chat at normal distances. Not very encouraging.

At the station all of the few travellers trying to keep their distance from each other in the booking hall and on the platforms and when boarding the train. Much more encouraging.

Now it's quite useful and interesting. 

Given what you've said about normal shopping, I'm not now going up the town to buy a card.

[mongers]

1326 dead (+32%), and a staggering +41% increase of UCI patients (1,600). 

Damn, that's bad.

I reckon the UK is about a week off that.

[DGuller]

There are no healthy obese people, DG.

Obesity is a medical condition. There's a direct correlation with life expectancy.

To be fair, that's not a sufficient argument.  If 90% of obese people were as healthy as non-obese, all else being equal, and 10% of obese people developed diabetes and cardiovascular issues that they wouldn't have at normal weight, you would still have this direct correlation between obesity and life expectancy.  However, even with that you would have 9 out of 10 obese people being healthy obese.

[Tamas]

Dguller and Meri might be missing a distinction between overwheigt and obese that I am pretty sure is there.

[DGuller]

Dguller and Meri might be missing a distinction between overwheigt and obese that I am pretty sure is there.

I am not.  I am talking about BMI >= 30, highly hypothetically in this case.

You can be a healthy smoker, and you can be a healthy obese person.  Neither is a good idea, because we know about the risk factors associated with these that make it more likely for you to cease being a healthy person one day.  However, until the risk factors catch up to you, for the purposes of having prior medical history, you do not have it, as far as I understand it.