Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[bogh]

Is it true that contact with a carrier who is asymptomatic is low risk?

Transfer is via bodily fluids, so coughing and sneezing increases your "blast radius" significantly.

[Syt]

The US president is a true rolemodel in this time of crisis

I genuinely think the White House and Mar-a-Lago could be infection vectors given the number of infected people who've been in and around it

It would be a real tragedy if the elderly elite that has gathered around Trump would be struck with the virus.

[mongers]

The world is closing down; welcome to the pre-railway* era.

People's horizons are contracting rather dramatically.



* Lots of people still have cars, but where is there to go with nearly everything shutting?

[Sheilbh]

Some good news - apparently there are some very positive early signs on treating it with existing drugs (including anti-malarial, anti-HIV and anti-ebola drugs), which is good news until there's specific treatment.

Also one of the academics in the Scientific Pandemic Influenza - Modelling group, whose modelling is guiding UK policy has done a little thread:

I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing 'herd immunity' as the main COVID-19 strategy. Our group's scenario modelling has focused on reducing two main things: peak healthcare demand and deaths... 1/
For me, herd immunity has never been the outright aim, it's been a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK. 2/
Sadly, even large-scale changes (like those other European countries are making, and we may very soon) may not control COVID for long. We must flatten the curve as much as possible, but there could still be many infections (and hence immunity). 3/
The communication about COVID science has generally been clear in the UK, but talk of 'herd immunity as the aim' is totally wide of the mark. Having large numbers infected isn't the aim here, even if it may be the outcome. 4/
A lot of modellers around the world are working flat out to find best way to minimise impact on population and healthcare. A side effect may end up being herd immunity, but this is merely a consequence of a very tough option - albeit one that may help prevent another outbreak. 5/
Clearly we cannot finely tune the path of this outbreak. The best we can do is identify actions that have highest chance of effectively and sustainably reducing impact on the population and burden on NHS. 6/
To be clear: we have to reduce impact on UK as much as we can. But we are in this for the long term. A couple of weeks of closed schools and cancelled events won't solve this - we will have to fundamentally change our lifestyles. 7/
Given the seriousness of the situation, we are obviously working to get our latest modelling analysis out in the public domain as soon as we can. 8/8

I generally favour transparency, but I am slightly concerned in this case because models basically means lots of data and lots of assumptions. I'm not sure we're ready for that from a media or political sense. I fully expect a lot of plausible, viral tweet threads and medium posts about the data/assumptions. Needless to say most of the responses to his thread appear to be people accusing him of lying/covering up for the government.

Latest tracker:


Edit: The US and Spanish track on that look quite concerning.

[DGuller]

Ugh, Spain and US do look bad.  Pure exponential growth for now with no sign of abatement.

[Fate]

Some good news - apparently there are some very positive early signs on treating it with existing drugs (including anti-malarial, anti-HIV and anti-ebola drugs), which is good news until there's specific treatment.

None of those reports are from randomized controlled trials. Most people naturally get better from COVID-19 on their own or with suppostive care. I could give you arsenic in this scenario and you'd get better afteward, but it's not because of the arsenic. It's happy talk and dangerous. We want HIV patients to get HIV drugs. We want people with malaria to get malaria drugs. We don't want to cause shortages of those treatments for their real indications because of rank speculation until there's more evidence.

There's one specific anti-coronavirus therapy that I think needs to be explored more - remdesivir. NIH is conducting clinical trials now.

[fromtia]

Well the restaurant has gone pretty quiet, following Mango Mussolinis remarkably ham fisted speech on Wednesday all the local events and shows that drive our business have been cancelled. TPC was cancelled, heck they cancelled Hamilton!

Our leadership team is doing the best they can , there's pamphlets from the WHO and CDC in every service station and lots of sanitizer everywhere, but they are very committed to not closing the doors and are putting a strong "this is an internet panic" spin on things.

Better than my girlfriends restaurant where she works part time, which is run by conspiracy theorists who are flatly refusing to respond in any way and have suggested that their employees wear copper bracelets as a response to events.

My mother and father are fine and holed up in their lovely home in Cambridge UK. Family is on stand by to deliver supplies, and some of the neighbors have formed an informal support group and offered assistance for the older people in the community. Very touching.

I am still working alongside a significant number of people who insist this is an internet panic and a very angry about it. Those people are very active on social media.

[garbon]

And now UK to get hit with American travel ban.

[crazy canuck]

Is it true that contact with a carrier who is asymptomatic is low risk?

My understanding is that it doesn't make much of a difference and that actually this is most contagious during the incubation stage when you're not showing symptoms (unlike SARS). But could be wrong that's just stuff I remember reading.

Other way around when people are symptomatic they have more of the virus

[garbon]

The US president is a true rolemodel in this time of crisis.

Apparently he has now announced that he was tested.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487583-trump-says-he-has-been-tested-for-coronavirus

President Trump announced Saturday that he took the test for the coronavirus and would soon have the results.

"I also took the test last night," Trump told reporters during a news conference in the White House briefing room. He said he took the test because reporters were asking why he hadn't taken it.

"They sent it to a lab," Trump said, noting that the results would be available in a few days.

Trump had said during a press conference in the White House Rose Garden on Friday afternoon that he was "likely" to take the test after interacting with two people who had since tested positive for the virus.

[crazy canuck]

And now UK to get hit with American travel ban.

We are not far away from restricting Americans from coming north

[crazy canuck]

A good step on the research front


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-two-canadian-teams-of-scientists-isolate-coronavirus-to-speed-research/

[The Brain]

He said he took the test because reporters were asking why he hadn't taken it.

He's such a leader.

[Liep]

Italy reports 3,497 new cases of coronavirus and 175 new deaths, raising total to 21,157 cases and 1,441 dead.

Doesn't really seem to slow down.

[Sheilbh]

None of those reports are from randomized controlled trials. Most people naturally get better from COVID-19 on their own or with suppostive care. I could give you arsenic in this scenario and you'd get better afteward, but it's not because of the arsenic. It's happy talk and dangerous. We want HIV patients to get HIV drugs. We want people with malaria to get malaria drugs. We don't want to cause shortages of those treatments for their real indications because of rank speculation until there's more evidence.

There's one specific anti-coronavirus therapy that I think needs to be explored more - remdesivir. NIH is conducting clinical trials now.

I'm not a scientist but that's the anti-ebola drug. The anti-HIV ones are combo Ritonavir/Lopinavir, the others are anti-inflammatories to protect the lungs. These are being properly tested now.

We are rich countries - I don't think there is any need for there to be a shortage of any type of drug for this.

We are not far away from restricting Americans from coming north

As is Mexico ().

Italy reports 3,497 new cases of coronavirus and 175 new deaths, raising total to 21,157 cases and 1,441 dead.

Doesn't really seem to slow down.

Grim

How long did it take in China before there was a downward trend?