Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

Comment from one of my sister's Facebook friends on the travel ban: "The UK is exempt, because they left the EU and are controlling their own borders. Something the EU is incapable of."

[Sheilbh]

I think a deceased VP needs to be confirmed by the House and Senate. Practically, no one will be confirmed this close to an election with one controlled by the Ds and the other the Rs.

Welcome, President Merrick Garland.

It will be interesting to see what happens. At an emotional level I like what our government is doing; would maybe advise people to avoid pubs and restaurants if I was in charge. On a more objective level it would seem that Johnson is listening to the scientists; which is good.

Yes. I agree and I think politically easy, some might say populist, thing to do would be to impose lots of restrictions. But if that isn't what the scientists are saying then I don't think we should do it.

Hopefully the message is getting through (they've updated their guidance which I'm seeing being circulated widely online) and people will be sensible. As I say I think I'll adjust my behaviour a bit because of it.

I wonder if this is the wrong approach. But I'm not an epidemiologist however much I might want them to do more, I kind of have to trust that they're listening to the advice of experts and taking it.

[Syt]

The ski resorts in Tirol are the hardest hit area in Austria. And while the resorts will all close now, this was what they looked like today.

[The Larch]

Comment from one of my sister's Facebook friends on the travel ban: "The UK is exempt, because they left the EU and are controlling their own borders. Something the EU is incapable of."

Will you bother pointing out that Ireland is also exempt?

[Tamas]

I think a deceased VP needs to be confirmed by the House and Senate. Practically, no one will be confirmed this close to an election with one controlled by the Ds and the other the Rs.

Welcome, President Merrick Garland.

It will be interesting to see what happens. At an emotional level I like what our government is doing; would maybe advise people to avoid pubs and restaurants if I was in charge. On a more objective level it would seem that Johnson is listening to the scientists; which is good.

Yes. I agree and I think politically easy, some might say populist, thing to do would be to impose lots of restrictions. But if that isn't what the scientists are saying then I don't think we should do it.

Hopefully the message is getting through (they've updated their guidance which I'm seeing being circulated widely online) and people will be sensible. As I say I think I'll adjust my behaviour a bit because of it.

I wonder if this is the wrong approach. But I'm not an epidemiologist however much I might want them to do more, I kind of have to trust that they're listening to the advice of experts and taking it.

Are we to think that all other countries are ignoring epidemiologists and instead aim to score cheap political points by... turning all people's lives upside down, instead of the wise UK who fight the pandemic by continuing life as if there wasn't one?

I am sorry to be negative. But if they treat it as a certainty that we reach Italy level of numbers in a mere 4 weeks, why are we not trying to prevent that?

[celedhring]

Largest boardgame and fantasy book/comic store in Barcelona (and all of Spain) has shut down indefinitely 

[Tamas]

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

In 1918, the city of Philadelphia threw a parade that killed thousands of people. Ignoring warnings of influenza among soldiers preparing for World War I, the march to support the war effort drew 200,000 people who crammed together to watch the procession. Three days later, every bed in Philadelphia's 31 hospitals was filled with sick and dying patients, infected by the Spanish flu.

A different story played out in St. Louis, just 900 miles away. Within two days of detecting its first cases among civilians, the city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, and even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited. Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.

The extreme measures—now known as social distancing, which is being called for by global health agencies to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus—kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia, according to a 2007 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[crazy canuck]

I think a deceased VP needs to be confirmed by the House and Senate. Practically, no one will be confirmed this close to an election with one controlled by the Ds and the other the Rs.

Welcome, President Merrick Garland.

It will be interesting to see what happens. At an emotional level I like what our government is doing; would maybe advise people to avoid pubs and restaurants if I was in charge. On a more objective level it would seem that Johnson is listening to the scientists; which is good.

Yes. I agree and I think politically easy, some might say populist, thing to do would be to impose lots of restrictions. But if that isn't what the scientists are saying then I don't think we should do it.

Hopefully the message is getting through (they've updated their guidance which I'm seeing being circulated widely online) and people will be sensible. As I say I think I'll adjust my behaviour a bit because of it.

I wonder if this is the wrong approach. But I'm not an epidemiologist however much I might want them to do more, I kind of have to trust that they're listening to the advice of experts and taking it.

Are we to think that all other countries are ignoring epidemiologists and instead aim to score cheap political points by... turning all people's lives upside down, instead of the wise UK who fight the pandemic by continuing life as if there wasn't one?

I am sorry to be negative. But if they treat it as a certainty that we reach Italy level of numbers in a mere 4 weeks, why are we not trying to prevent that?

Not all other countries.  The countries who are not following the advice of their health professionals might actually be in the minority.

[crazy canuck]

And actually a good article in the NYTimes regarding nations who are not following the advice of the health professionals - including the US.

The most obvious examples are the global flouting of international travel restrictions. More than 70 countries have instituted the restrictions, according to the W.H.O., including the United States, where President Trump announced on Wednesday night restrictions to travel from the European continent.

Yet in four advisories it has issued since early January, the W.H.O. has consistently advised against them, cautioning that limits on international movement during public health emergencies are unlikely to stop the pathogen's spread.

The rules do not apply to domestic travel restrictions or to decisions made by private airlines, but the W.H.O. has repeatedly warned that international bans can block needed resources, or delay aid and technical support. Such restrictions are only justified at the beginning of an outbreak to buy nations time to prepare, the agency said. Beyond that, they are more likely to cause significant economic and social harm.

Meanwhile, only 45 of the more than 70 countries who have adopted international travel restrictions have fulfilled the requirement to report their actions to the agency, a spokesman said.

Restricting travel "is a good political placebo. It's going to make people feel safe," said Clare Wenham at the London School of Economics, a scholar who has studied the health regulations for more than a decade. "Why are we not learning that this doesn't work?" Dr. Wenham asked about travel restrictions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/coronavirus-world-health-organization.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[Sheilbh]

Are we to think that all other countries are ignoring epidemiologists and instead aim to score cheap political points by... turning all people's lives upside down, instead of the wise UK who fight the pandemic by continuing life as if there wasn't one?

No - the advice may be different and the UK's advice or approach may be wrong. But I don't think the government's taking the politically easy option, which makes me think it must be because of the scientific advice they're receiving. A science journalist I've seen on this said the CMO and Chief Science Advisor would allow political considerations to influence their advice - so if they're stood there saying this is based on their scientific opinion, I can only trust them.

They could be wrong. You know, I buy Johnson's line, that this is the worst public health crisis in a generation - or more. So I think lots of experts could come to different conclusions. All I can do is hope that my government's following our experts' advice and, hopefully, they're getting it right. But they might not be. I don't think change.org petitions calling for school closures or Cesc Fabregas tweeting that the UK needs to do more adds anything to the sum of human knowledge on this and is just noise.

So from today's press conference:

Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance:

'Schools, it's true there's some effect in closing schools, but it's minimal, and you'd need to do it for 13 to 16 weeks or longer.'
England's CMO Chris Whitty:

'Closing schools has big knock-on effects across all of society'

Says the evidence is not there that it has a significant impact on delaying spread of virus.

(And my thought on that is the NHS is the countries biggest employer - how many nurses and doctors have childcare arrangements for four months? And how many of those would actually just be loads of kids mingling together which is the same issue as schools, or relying on grandparents who are at risk?

England's Chief Medical Office Chris Whitty:

'This is going to be a long haul, it's very important we don't do things in advance of need.'
'It is no longer needed for us to identify every case. We will move from testing... to a situation where people are remaining at home do not need testing. We will pivot testing towards people in hospital who have symptoms.'
'Testing will be based on symptoms and severity. Irrespective of travel history.'

Sir Patrick Vallance:

'On average one person infects two or three others. You therefore have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium.

Most of the transmission tends to take place with friends and colleagues. Not in big environments.'
'You'd expect it to follow a similar trajectory in terms of the numbers...'

Says the measures being advised today are designed to deflect that trajectory.

They added that the "delay" stage is critical and will be regularly updated because their understanding of the virus extends week-by-week.

I have criticisms of the bits of the government's management of this. I think they could be wrong, I hope they're not but I trust they're taking the decisions in the right way (even if they're wrong).

I am sorry to be negative. But if they treat it as a certainty that we reach Italy level of numbers in a mere 4 weeks, why are we not trying to prevent that?

I mean they think we're higher than Italy - 5-10,000 non-detected cases with only 590 confirmed cases. But I think they are changing their advice and ways to manage it e.g. this new advice:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

And part of it is the sort-of starting point with a pandemic, from that Influenza Pandemic Strategy Preparedness document which seems to be starting point (and should be - they need to be nimble but I don't want government to wing it):

Summary of planning assumptions for pandemic preparedness4

A pandemic is most likely to be caused by a new subtype of the Influenza A virus but the plans could  be  adapted  and  deployed  for  scenarios  such  as  an  outbreak  of  another  infectious disease,  eg  Severe  Acute  Respiratory  Syndrome  (SARS)  in  health  care  settings,  with  an altogether different pattern of infectivity.

An influenza pandemic could emerge at any time, anywhere in the world, including in the UK. It could  emerge  at  any  time of  the  year.  Regardless  of  where  or  when  it  emerges,  it  is  likely  to reach the UK very quickly.

It will not be possible to stop the spread of, or to eradicate, the pandemic influenza virus, either in the country of origin or in the UK, as it will spread too rapidly and too widely.

From arrival in the UK, it will probably be a further one to two weeks until sporadic cases and small clusters of disease are occurring across the country. 

Initially, pandemic influenza activity in the UK may last for three to five months, depending on the  season. There  may  be  subsequent  substantial activity  weeks  or  months  apart,  even after the WHO has declared the pandemic to be over.

Following  an  influenza  pandemic,  the  new  virus  is  likely  to  re-emerge  as  one  of  a  number  of seasonal  influenza  viruses  and  based  on  observations  of  previous  pandemics,  subsequent winters  are  likely  to  see  a  different  level  of  seasonal  flu  activity  compared  to  pre-pandemic winters.

Although it is not possible to predict in advance what proportion of the population will become infected  with  the  new  virus,  previous  studies  suggest  that  roughly  one  half  of  all  people  may display symptoms of some kind (ranging from mild to severe).

The  transmissibility  of  the  pandemic  virus  and  the proportion  of  people  in  which  severe symptoms are produced will not be known in advance.

Edit: Also Tamas, I found this helpful which collects the view of different experts. We maybe should be doing more but it's a difficult balancing act and there's a lot of opinions, among experts. Personally I'd like us to be looking more at Singapore and South Korea - so wider testing and tracing because that seems effective:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-the-uks-response-to-covid-19-so-far/

expert comments about the UK's response to COVID-19 so far

Comments on the UK's response to COVID-19 so far.

Dr Mike Turner, Director of Science, Wellcome Trust, said:
"There is an incredibly difficult balancing act going on.  Being too slow to react has potentially dangerous consequences.  Over-reacting is also potentially dangerous, though for different reasons.  And the core difficulty is that we are still learning about this virus and what is similar to things we know about other coronaviruses and things that are different.

"There is limited evidence that closing schools and postponing sporting fixtures makes much material difference.  Each country is making the best call they can on such issues with limited information and there is no 'correct' answer here.  Even if there were, a 'correct' answer today may not be tomorrow because events are changing so rapidly."

Prof Jimmy Whitworth, Professor of International Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:
"I think what the government should be doing is introducing the strongest social distancing measures that they believe will be acceptable to the British public.  If you don't have public support, your control measures will not work.

"It is a justifiable strategy to try to slow down transmission and spread it out."

Dr Thomas House, Reader in Mathematical Statistics, University of Manchester, said:
"At this stage, there is a diversity of opinion, but I would argue for a focus on quality over quantity of measures – ensuring that people are able to take adequate sick leave, and are supported in whatever ways are needed to make interventions effective and safe, for example."

Prof Martin Hibberd, Professor of Emerging Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:
"The UK response has clearly not been sufficient, as numbers are continuing to climb and we are at risk of following the trajectory of other European countries.

"If the aim is simply to delay the peak of the outbreak till the summer, then perhaps the UK response is enough.  However, WHO is challenging the world to do more and we know from China that aggressive curtailment policies can work to reduce numbers.

"But following China, as Italy is moving towards, is not an easy path for many reasons. I would advocate for the UK to follow a more nuanced approach, such as that being adopted by Singapore; which appears to be effective to at least contain numbers of COVID-19 cases.

"In this approach, extensive contact tracing and SARS-CoV-2 testing is able to rapidly identify new cases and fully isolate them.  When put together with other social distancing measures (that do not include 'lock down' of areas – even the schools are open), some confidence is gained that the pandemic can be more controllable and shops can remain open.

"To do this, the UK would need to rapidly increase its testing facilities and target to test every possible case, together with other social distancing tools to make this work.  They could start by testing everyone in parliament to understand the nature of any cases there."

Prof Devi Sridhar, Professor of Global Public Health, University of Edinburgh, said:
"Now is the time for the UK government to ban large gatherings, ask people to stop non-essential travel, recommend employers shift to home working and ramp up the response.  The curve can be shifted (like South Korea and Singapore) but only with government action."

[merithyn]

Largest boardgame and fantasy book/comic store in Barcelona (and all of Spain) has shut down indefinitely 

Wait, what? Why didn't you take me here?

[celedhring]

Largest boardgame and fantasy book/comic store in Barcelona (and all of Spain) has shut down indefinitely 

Wait, what? Why didn't you take me here?

Oh, it still doesn't hold a candle to the ones in the US. But honestly I didn't think of it! We were actually just a block away when we visited the Arc de Triomf. That area is known as the "geek triangle" because of all the comic/memorabilia/game stores

[merithyn]

Largest boardgame and fantasy book/comic store in Barcelona (and all of Spain) has shut down indefinitely 

Wait, what? Why didn't you take me here?

Oh, it still doesn't hold a candle to the ones in the US. But honestly I didn't think of it! We were actually just a block away when we visited the Arc de Triomf. That area is known as the "geek triangle" because of all the comic/memorabilia/game stores

[merithyn]

The big March SCA war in Hattiesburg, MS, has been cancelled. It usually brings in 3000+ people, so I'm not surprised. I wasn't going anyway. However, i was going to Illinois for a week to go to back-to-back events for friends' knightings. The first has been officially cancelled. The second is now questionable. So I'll be cancelling that trip, and navigating the refund through the airlines' overburdened phone lines.

[Syt]

The Austrian foreign ministry has now issued a travel warning for *checks notes* the entire world. All Austrians are requested to return to Austria.

Foreign flights will apparently be suspended.