Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Agelastus]

One other thought on that which is scary is that the health system has sort of deep pools of expertise it can pull on. So the NHS is looking at getting support from military medics if staff become ill and have to self-isolate, they're also looking at retired doctors and nurses being used which I can see happening.

Yes, and my aunt (an ex-Ward Sister IIRC) wondered yesterday if the government had thought about how these ex-doctors and nurses are going to be re-insured (which is a major expense for doctors and nurses and one which retired individuals coming in to work for a couple of months would not want to pay) as they can't treat patients without it.

When they retired their existing insurance would have lapsed.

You tend to be better informed than myself concerning the government's measures - have you seen any mention of this?

[Sheilbh]

So are we not getting a British numbers update today as per the new policy of waiting 24 hours because of... reasons?

The 24 hour delay is only about geographic spread (same as the weekly update). They were still doing a daily numbers update - apparently the Health Department spokesman's told the media there's a delay with today's numbers but they'll be released shortly.

[Tamas]

UK up to 115, so 30 new cases.

[Sheilbh]

UK up to 115, so 30 new cases.

And here's your geographic spread


Of the English cases, 17 had recently been to a high-risk country. 8 don't have a clear link and they're investigating.

Also PM's spokesman on move to "delay" following latest updates:

We will continue to try to contain this virus. However it's now highly likely that the virus is going to spread in a significant way.

Officials will therefore accelerate work on preparations for the delay phase of the Government's plan focusing on steps we can take to seek to delay the spread of the virus.

This will include detailed work on the optimum time to introduce further measures.

[crazy canuck]

US universities are starting to call back their students who are doing terms abroad - even from universities in Scotland where, as I understand it, the rates of infection are lower than in the US - fear of law suits over reason?

[Sheilbh]

US universities are starting to call back their students who are doing terms abroad - even from universities in Scotland where, as I understand it, the rates of infection are lower than in the US - fear of law suits over reason?

Also if Meri's test thing is still true and the CDC is working up to 1,000 tests a day - how confident are they the rate of infection is low?

The UK's doing a few thousand tests a day (with a lower population) and has tested over 18,000 people - which is nowhere near South Korean levels. The "total tested" figure has been removed from the CDC website, but as of 1 March, the US had done under 500. This is a little old, but I query having much confidence in the US level of infection
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

[HisMajestyBOB]

Why? The President has said that the death rate is < 1%, that people with the virus can continue going to work, and the whole thing is really a Democrat hoax to make him look bad. So really there's no need for any precautions.

[Agelastus]

First UK death confirmed at the Royal Berkshire.

Second Briton, presumably.

[Iormlund]

Interesting because the UK Chief Medical Officer repeated the 1% today. He said the WHO number doesn't include people who got only mild cases of coronavirus and he has a "reasonably high degree of confidence" that the overall mortality rate is 1% or lower.

This is correct as long as the number of critical care patients is low enough not to overwhelm ICU resources. That's when mortality rate spikes big time.

The problem is [outside China] we're seeing exponential growth. For instance it took just 11 days for Italy to see a hundredfold increase in cases. We're merely weeks away from millions of infected, unless severe measures are adopted.

[Zanza]

Germany currently has higher daily growth than Italy, but so far no fatalities.  500+ confirmed cases, thousands in quarantine. 

[celedhring]

Germany currently has higher daily growth than Italy, but so far no fatalities.  500+ confirmed cases, thousands in quarantine.

The Italians have decided you're not having this one and announced a 500+ increase in infections in the last 24h.

Looking grim.

[Josephus]

so is this bigger than SARS?

Planning a visit to the homeland in May, flight goes through Rome. Wonder if it will get cancelled.

[Zanza]

Germany currently has higher daily growth than Italy, but so far no fatalities.  500+ confirmed cases, thousands in quarantine.

The Italians have decided you're not having this one and announced a 500+ increase in infections in the last 24h.

Looking grim.

Italy is a week ahead of the rest of Europe, but exponential growth everywhere.

[Barrister]

so is this bigger than SARS?

Planning a visit to the homeland in May, flight goes through Rome. Wonder if it will get cancelled.

SARS was ultimately confined within China, and had only 9,000 cases.  So it's much bigger than SARS.

SARS however had a death rate of 9.6% - Covid-19 appears to be under 1%.

[Grey Fox]

so is this bigger than SARS?

Planning a visit to the homeland in May, flight goes through Rome. Wonder if it will get cancelled.

In May? Millions will be infected & you will be quarantined home, so yeah, cancel.