US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[Sheilbh]

Kind of weird sitting around for the shoe to drop.

I think it'll be a while. Nothing too immediate or dramatic, not least because they're likely to be less impulsive than Trump so will try and choose things that hurt him and US interests but are unlikely to threaten the regime's survival.

Trump's legacy will be a nuclear armed Iran. An utter strategic defeat of American interest in the Middle East.

In the Middle East. In Asia it might well be a nuclear armed North Korea.

[Tamas]

Can't really fault the Iranians for rushing for the bomb, I guess. North Korea has it and they have The Donald groveling to their Dear Leader. Iran doesn't have it yet and they get slapped around.

It was already a bit of an issue with American foreign policy, as in NK was paid tribute to stay quiet, but at least they made this deal with Iran in '15. Now that's all fucked.

[Maladict]

Talking about fucked, so are my travel plans. Again. Thanks Obama.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51001167

Iran rolls back nuclear deal commitments

Iran has declared it will no longer abide by any of the restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal.

In a statement it said it would no longer observe limitations on its capacity for enrichment, the level of enrichment, the stock of enriched material, or research and development.

The statement came after a meeting of the Iranian cabinet in Tehran.

Tensions have been high over the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the US in Baghdad.

Two loud blasts were heard in the Iraqi capital on Sunday evening. Initial reports quoting witnesses say rockets landed near the US embassy there.

Hundreds of thousands turned out in Iran on Sunday to give Soleimani a hero's welcome ahead of his funeral on Tuesday.

Under the 2015 accord, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions.

US President Donald Trump abandoned it in 2018, saying he wanted to force Iran to negotiate a new deal that would place indefinite curbs on its nuclear programme and also halt its development of ballistic missiles.

Iran refused and had since been gradually rolling back its commitments under the agreement.

Earlier on Sunday, Iraqi MPs passed a non-binding resolution calling for foreign troops to leave the country after the killing of Soleimani in a drone strike at Baghdad airport on Friday.

About 5,000 US soldiers are in Iraq as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State (IS) group.

The coalition paused operations against IS in Iraq just before Sunday's vote.

What did Iran say?

Iran had been expected to announce its latest stance on the nuclear agreement this weekend, before news of Soleimani's death.

A statement broadcast on state TV said the country would no longer respect any limits laid down in the 2015 deal.

"Iran will continue its nuclear enrichment with no limitations and based on its technical needs," the statement said.

Enriched uranium can be used in nuclear weapons.

The statement did not, however, say that Iran was withdrawing from the agreement and it added that Iran would continue to co-operate with the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

The statement added that Iran was ready to return to its commitments once it enjoyed the benefits of the agreement.

Correspondents say this is a reference to its inability to sell oil and have access to its income under US sanctions.

Iran has always insisted that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.

Sanctions have caused Iran's oil exports to collapse and the value of its currency to plummet, and sent its inflation rate soaring.

How has the international community reacted?
The other parties to the 2015 deal - the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia - tried to keep the agreement alive after the US withdrew in 2018.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has invited Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to visit Brussels to discuss both the nuclear deal and how to defuse the crisis over the Soleimani assassination.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to work towards de-escalation in the Middle East, a German government spokesman was quoted as saying by AFP news agency.

Mr Johnson said "we will not lament" the death of Soleimani, describing him as "a threat to all our interests".

[Syt]

[Hamilcar]

If there are any adults left in Washington, this is the time to step in.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Keep in mind in the last 40 years, any time America has gotten riled up enough to actually threaten Iran, Iran has generally not responded at all, at least not directly.

Iran and its leadership are pretty well aware of their limitations. What's more likely to happen is they try to leverage this towards political wins, for example Iranian society has been really divided lately due to all the sanctions and terrible economy. A common question has been "why are we sending money to fight proxy wars in countries like Syria and Lebanon when Iranians in Tehran can't afford basic necessities? And why is our fuel subsidy getting cut?" By many reports the recent large scale protests, particularly due to the breadth of their support, really had the regime rattled. But the country is now rallying powerfully around the death of Suleimani.

We've also done a good job of significantly undermining our influence in Iraq. It could simply be that Khamenei will use this to solidify Iranian nationalism at home and further enhance his ties with Iraq abroad. He doesn't even need to order an "attack" which at this point almost definitely will result in Iran itself getting bombed, he has already gotten more out of Suleimani's death than he could've gotten any other way. If anything this is already a great outcome for the ruling mullahs.

[Zanza]

So the war powers resolution was replaced by Twitter now?

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iraq/three-rockets-fall-in-baghdad-s-green-zone-police-sources-say-1.8356241

3 Kaytushas land near US embassy.

[The Brain]

Good night, Iranian World Heritage sites. Good night, Armenian Monastic Ensembles of Iran. Good night Bam and its Cultural Landscape. Good night Bisotun. Good night Cultural Landscape of Maymand...

[Tamas]

I guess the "is Trump willing to start a war to try and wiggle out of impeachment?" question has been answered.

[Sheilbh]

From one of the pool journalists:

President Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One -- saying he won't leave Iraq unless they pay the U.S. billions, threatened sanctions on Iraq otherwise, while doubling down on a threat to strike cultural sites in Iran.
On Iraq: "We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it," Trump said.
More on Iraq: "If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis. We will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame."
Trump also reiterated a threat to target Iranian cultural sites in retaliation for any strike.

"If they do anything there will be major retaliation," he said.
"They're allowed to kill our people. They're allowed to torture and maim our people. they're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn't work that way," Trump said.

[mongers]

From one of the pool journalists:

President Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One -- saying he won't leave Iraq unless they pay the U.S. billions, threatened sanctions on Iraq otherwise, while doubling down on a threat to strike cultural sites in Iran.
On Iraq: "We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it," Trump said.
More on Iraq: "If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis. We will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame."
Trump also reiterated a threat to target Iranian cultural sites in retaliation for any strike.

"If they do anything there will be major retaliation," he said.
"They're allowed to kill our people. They're allowed to torture and maim our people. they're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn't work that way," Trump said.

Don't worry there's always people ready to step in and restrain him. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

From one of the pool journalists:

President Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One -- saying he won't leave Iraq unless they pay the U.S. billions, threatened sanctions on Iraq otherwise, while doubling down on a threat to strike cultural sites in Iran.
On Iraq: "We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it," Trump said.
More on Iraq: "If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis. We will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame."
Trump also reiterated a threat to target Iranian cultural sites in retaliation for any strike.

"If they do anything there will be major retaliation," he said.
"They're allowed to kill our people. They're allowed to torture and maim our people. they're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn't work that way," Trump said.

I'm sure he would give Putin a good price.

[jimmy olsen]

From one of the pool journalists:

President Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One -- saying he won't leave Iraq unless they pay the U.S. billions, threatened sanctions on Iraq otherwise, while doubling down on a threat to strike cultural sites in Iran.
On Iraq: "We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it," Trump said.
More on Iraq: "If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis. We will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame."
Trump also reiterated a threat to target Iranian cultural sites in retaliation for any strike.

"If they do anything there will be major retaliation," he said.
"They're allowed to kill our people. They're allowed to torture and maim our people. they're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn't work that way," Trump said.

Don't worry there's always people ready to step in and restrain him.

Like all these guys resigning in the last week? Don't think they'll do much to stop him outside the pentagon, and those that didn't leave...don't think they're going to be stopping him either.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/475205-fifth-pentagon-official-announces-resignation-in-seven-days#.XhJCcafVhSQ.twitter