News:

And we're back!

Main Menu

Casualties of the Three Kingdoms War

Started by Syt, March 24, 2019, 02:19:27 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Syt

According to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

During the Three Kingdoms War 184-280 AD the site claims 36-40 million dead in China, plus 3-7 million from the Yellow Turban Rebellion.

I know that China had a high population at the time, but those numbers seem very high for the time period. Does anyone know any good sources for this, and whether this is (broadly) accurate?
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Valmy

Even for a period of 100 years that seems ridiculous. But then I am not too familiar with that war, was there mass civilian genocide going on?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Syt

That's the only explanation I could think of, besides plagues/starvation.

By comparison, the Punic Wars had < 2M dead, and I presume that includes destroying the city of Carthage.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

garbon

The page on that war suggests that will many were killed as casualties of warfare, many of the deaths are attributable to famine and plaque due to the collapse of effective government.

It also says a bunch about the lack of reliability of Chinese population figures.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Monoriu

From what I have read in Chinese, there was very drastic decline in population from the end of the Han dynasty to the Three Kingdoms period.  The sources that I have read generally cite declines in the range of 80-90%.  So yes, only 10-20% of the pre-war population is left.  First, Han is one of the most successful and prosperous dynasties in Chinese history.  So population reached a peak then, resulting in a high base figure.  The collapse of Han resulted not just in warlordism, but also in widespread famine and loss of most government functions.  The warlords engaged in mass killing and forced movement of millions, further adding to the death toll.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: garbon on March 24, 2019, 02:37:25 AM
many of the deaths are attributable to famine and plaque

Don't forget the gingivitis.

Barrister

Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

grumbler

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2019, 02:51:09 AM
Quote from: garbon on March 24, 2019, 02:37:25 AM
many of the deaths are attributable to famine and plaque

Don't forget the gingivitis.

Killed all the redheads in China, so there are none today.  :(
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

HisMajestyBOB

Quote from: Monoriu on March 24, 2019, 02:45:33 AM
From what I have read in Chinese, there was very drastic decline in population from the end of the Han dynasty to the Three Kingdoms period.  The sources that I have read generally cite declines in the range of 80-90%.  So yes, only 10-20% of the pre-war population is left.  First, Han is one of the most successful and prosperous dynasties in Chinese history.  So population reached a peak then, resulting in a high base figure.  The collapse of Han resulted not just in warlordism, but also in widespread famine and loss of most government functions.  The warlords engaged in mass killing and forced movement of millions, further adding to the death toll.

My understanding is that the population numbers come from the censuses, and at least some of the drop is due to some territories no longer being under central control and differences in how population was counted. Not all, but some.
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

PDH

Quote from: grumbler on March 24, 2019, 11:40:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2019, 02:51:09 AM
Quote from: garbon on March 24, 2019, 02:37:25 AM
many of the deaths are attributable to famine and plaque

Don't forget the gingivitis.

Killed all the redheads in China, so there are none today.  :(

And that is why, as George Carlin said, you don't meet too many Chinese guys named Rusty.
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

citizen k

Quote from: garbon on March 24, 2019, 02:37:25 AM
It also says a bunch about the lack of reliability of Chinese population figures.

"Their numbers are vast!"



The Minsky Moment

The Han Dynasty registries indicate a peak population of 50-60 million, which is also consistent with the official numbers from the Tang through Ming dynasties.  (Pop started climbing significantly under the Qing).

I think it's reasonable to believe that China was capable of supporting a pre-industrial population in the 50-60 million range, if not more, and hence that is a reasonable number for the Han Dyansty at its height.

On that basis 36-40 million dead in Three Kingdom War seems very high and I would agree what is likely being captured here is a sharp reduction in the number of settled areas recording population in an official way. 
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Razgovory

80-90% seems awfully high.  The Thirty years war killed 30-40% of the population of Germany and it's considered one of the most devastating wars in European history.  Killed the 80-90% of the population seems like it would be hard to do.  Most people in a pre-modern world were farmers and don't rely that much on central government.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Josquius

Quote from: Razgovory on March 25, 2019, 02:53:00 PM
80-90% seems awfully high.  The Thirty years war killed 30-40% of the population of Germany and it's considered one of the most devastating wars in European history.  Killed the 80-90% of the population seems like it would be hard to do.  Most people in a pre-modern world were farmers and don't rely that much on central government.

I guess though with Germany you still had surrounding countries which were relatively unaffected, and though Germany may have had armies marching across it tearing it apart every other year, food could still get in from overseas.
First millenium China pretty much stood alone.
██████
██████
██████

Razgovory

Quote from: Tyr on March 25, 2019, 04:59:02 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 25, 2019, 02:53:00 PM
80-90% seems awfully high.  The Thirty years war killed 30-40% of the population of Germany and it's considered one of the most devastating wars in European history.  Killed the 80-90% of the population seems like it would be hard to do.  Most people in a pre-modern world were farmers and don't rely that much on central government.

I guess though with Germany you still had surrounding countries which were relatively unaffected, and though Germany may have had armies marching across it tearing it apart every other year, food could still get in from overseas.
First millenium China pretty much stood alone.


How much food do you think that destitute rural peasants were importing?  If anything, the fact that surrounding countries were relatively unaffected would indicate more damage.  Armies were less affected by the decline in resources in Germany since they were payed and supplied by outside entities.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017