The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[celedhring]

So, after 3 months of acrimonious talks between the two main proindy parties we'll have a new Catalan government, just one week before a new election was triggered. ERC blinked first after trying to set up a solo government and they are now giving up the most valuable departments to JxCAT in exchange for the presidency. JxCAT and its predecessor party are undoubtly the best in Catalonia at doing politics. Even in defeat, they rule.

What they'll do about independence has been left really vague. An older draft of the pact included a 2 year window where they'd explore the negotation group set up with the Spanish gov, and if they can't get a lawful referendum (which the Spanish gov has already said it's off the table, while they are willing to talk about further devolution) they'd go ahead with "preparing another clash with the state", which was understood as a referendum. But when announcing the current pact they have just gone with "we'll work to get independence as soon as possible".

I suspect they need some kind of indy-related carrot or ultimately the coalition will implode (like the last one did). The independence drive is the only thing that ties those parties together.

[Admiral Yi]

So...I want to join this organisation.... just how little racism can I get away with?

Elbows are way too pointy.

[celedhring]

Spain has been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis with Morocco (these happen regularly), after it transpired that one of the heads of the Polisario Front was receiving medical treatment for Covid in Spain, after travelling from Argelia and receiving permission from our government. Dude's a nasty piece of work whatever you think of that conflict, and Spanish courts also want him for lots of gruesome stuff (and they are expecting his hospital release before proceeding). As a reprisal, Morocco has stopped policing the land border with Ceuta & Melilla which has resulted in several thousand immigrants crossing over in a single evening. The army has been deployed, and those cities don't have the capacity to handle this influx of people.



Let's hope this doesn't end badly...

[The Larch]

Add to that having the Moroccan PM doing an interview in TV talking about "finally opening the discussions with Spain regarding the status of Ceuta and Melilla".

[The Brain]

How important are the places to Spain?

[celedhring]

They are more trouble than anything else, given the illegal immigration issues and the drug trade. I don't care much about our suzerainty of those places, but I *do* care about hypotetically surrendering them to an ultraconservative authoritarian monarchy (and I don't think the people living in them would like it very much either) 

[The Larch]

While they might be more trouble than they're worth, they're still integral parts of the country (no wishy washy post-colonial status here), and you just don't give those kind of places away, with almost 200 thousand compatriots living there who would not really enjoy the idea of leaving a democratic country for an absolute monarchy. No Spanish government would (or should) even entertain that idea.

Unless you're a firm believer of domino theory (if you give them something then they'll want even more), a dialogue could be had about the "Plazas de soberanía", pointless military garrisons and deserted islands in the area, of which Perejil island, the one that caused the 2002 incident between Spain and Morocco, is part of.

The relationship between Spain and Morocco has always been somehow tense since the 70s. When Franco was in his deathbed Morocco undertook the "Green March", through which they occupied the Western Sahara, a Spanish territory at that time that has been occupied by Morocco since then (which Trump recognized as part of Morocco last year, in exchange for Morocco normalizing relations with Israel). Besides those territorial frictions, Morocco is also the "enforcer" of migration (as well as drug traficking) vigilance, and whenever relations between Spain and Morocco go sour, they "relax" their policing standards so there's an influx of migrants for Spain to deal with, as right now.

[Legbiter]

Ceuta's been rightful Portugese/Spanish clay since 1415. The Reconquista wasn't even done by then. Morocco will have to conquer it in a war if they want it back.

[celedhring]

Looks like Puigdemont is already losing control of the party he himself created. Most of his closest allies won't be in the new Catalan government, and his party has instead chosen a bunch of relative moderates. 

I can't see this bunch doing anything weird in the next couple years. We can certainly use that, the pandemic has been devastating for our economy.

[celedhring]

Celia Villalobos, former Health Minister under the conservative governments of the 2000s has started an e-sports team. This is utterly bizarre 

[celedhring]

Ok, yesterday the Spanish president pretty much confirmed he intends to pardon the jailed the Catalan politicians in the coming weeks. This will raise a political shitstorm, when the socdems were already not doing too well in the polls.

The sentencing tribunal's opinion on the pardons (last part of the process before they can be granted) is coming this week, and it is expected to be extremely negative. This doesn't prevent the government from giving them, but makes them vulnerable to an appeal (yes, pardons can be appealed over here), as over the years the Supreme Court has tended to give itself a bigger oversight on pardons.

I know the goal is to reduce tensions, but I can easily see an outcome where this fuels the right, who comes to power in a couple years and given their proven tactfulness and care when managing this issue, separatists find a good target to coalesce around another unilateral attempt. But I'm always a pessimist.

[The Larch]

While I think that at least a partial indult is going to be necessary sooner or later, it's something that will be extremely difficult to handle PR-wise and it's not going to give them any goodwill at all, let alone votes. I really wish that they know what they're doing putting it forward at this time. I guess it's something they want settled well in advance of the next general elections.

[celedhring]

Yeah, they want to get it done ASAP, and hope everybody forgets in two years. However, the released dudes will spend the next two years reminding everybody that "we will do it again", because that's the stage where at in Catalonia. Anyway, I'll begin stockin loo paper.

EDIT: the Supreme Court just released its opinion and its overwhelmingly negative.

[The Larch]

Yeah, they want to get it done ASAP, and hope everybody forgets in two years. However, the released dudes will spend the next two years reminding everybody that "we will do it again", because that's the stage where at in Catalonia. Anyway, I'll begin stockin loo paper.

Thing is, it's going to be impossible to make people forget it. PP and Vox will hammer the government with it day in day out (Ciudadanos too, but nobody is going to care about them). Only chance is if something even bigger happens.

I wonder if some conditional indult is possible, attaching stirngs in a "you can get out of jail but the moment you start rumbling about doing another referendum you go back in ASAP" way. I also wonder if they should apply the indult only to the "political" crimes, but not to the administrative ones, so their jail time is greatly reduced, but not completely eliminated.

EDIT: the Supreme Court just released its opinion and its overwhelmingly negative.

It's not as if anything different was expected.

[celedhring]

The "don't flout the law again or you're back in the slammer" clause is apparently rather common, so I guess that will go in.

I suspect they won't get pardoned for the non-jail penalties of their sentences, too (so they'll still be barred from holding office).