The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[celedhring]

It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.

There are no bilateral agreements anymore. That whole slew of piecemeal devolved powers were incorporated into the Statute of 2006, which itself is part of the Constitutional order - the separatists have flouted it too - but subordinated to the Constitution. These devolved powers were not originally written in the Constitution, but the approach used was "if the Constitution doesn't say it's exclusive of the central government, then it can be devolved".

But as you say, Article 155 was the kind of thing written expecting never to be used. So we're in legal Terra Incognita. It's actually copied verbatim from the German Constitution - but they have never applied it either.

[celedhring]

Strong rumours that the Catalan President will ask to appear in front of the Spanish Senate to argue the Generalitat's side in the application of Article 155 - but it's not fully confirmed yet. This would go against everything he's done so far (he's always refused to appear in the Spanish Congress or Senate, always arguing for "bilateral" negotiations), and would certainly preclude an UDI this week (you don't go to the Spanish Senate after declaring yourself independent surely).

I've been disappointed too many times to hope for a deescalation, but...

[crazy canuck]

It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.

There are no bilateral agreements anymore. That whole slew of piecemeal devolved powers were incorporated into the Statute of 2006, which itself is part of the Constitutional order - the separatists have flouted it too - but subordinated to the Constitution. These devolved powers were not originally written in the Constitution, but the approach used was "if the Constitution doesn't say it's exclusive of the central government, then it can be devolved".

But as you say, Article 155 was the kind of thing written expecting never to be used. So we're in legal Terra Incognita. It's actually copied verbatim from the German Constitution - but they have never applied it either.

Ah, thanks for setting me straight 

[Zanza]

The German article 37 is indeed very similar to Spain's article 155. It's called "Federal Execution" and allows the federal government to appoint a commissar who has absolute authority to enforce federal law with all necessary means.

It goes back to the Holy Roman Empire and was the way the emperor could enforce princely obligations and decisions of the Reichstag and has been a feature of every German constitution since the Middle Ages. It was last used in the Weimar Republic, infamously in the Preußenschlag of 1932, which paved the road for Hitler.

Modern Germany being ruled by law most likely means that it cannot be enacted before there was a case between the federal government and the state in the constitutional court first and there is a decision in favor of the federal government and the federal state is in contempt of the court order.

[celedhring]

Modern Germany being ruled by law most likely means that it cannot be enacted before there was a case between the federal government and the state in the constitutional court first and there is a decision in favor of the federal government and the federal state is in contempt of the court order.

Well, that's certainly the case here. The Catalan government has been in contempt of the Constitutional Court for well over a month.

[celedhring]

The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan. 

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

[Oexmelin]

The difficulty stems from that gray zone where political issues are being asked to be solved constitutionally. It can never truly be, unless one political side is already so weak as to make the legal conclusion almost foreordained.

[Valmy]

The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan. 

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

Nous sommes trahis!!

[crazy canuck]

The difficulty stems from that gray zone where political issues are being asked to be solved constitutionally. It can never truly be, unless one political side is already so weak as to make the legal conclusion almost foreordained.

Isn't that the purpose of a constitution - to regulate how political issues will be determined within the jurisdiction governed by the constitution.  The alternative is to set aside the constitution and make new rules.

[CountDeMoney]

The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan. 

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

That's just being French hipster about things.

[grumbler]

The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan. 

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

If they hosted it in Avignon, they could use the infrastructure that's already there.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpinyà. 

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

Didn't you get the memo? 

As for French "Catalan nationalist parties", does it mean there is more than one?  It's not like they have mass support (hundreds of supporters), probably less support than Rugby League (though sometimes matching), very popular in the Roussillon Rosselló.

As for Avignon, I am waiting for Pope Francis statement on the matter.

PS: about the "parties"...

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/catalogne-puigdemont-et-ses-ministres-bientot-en-exil-a-perpignan_1954882.html

So it's two parties or associations, offering a 400 sq. metre villa for Puigdemont, plus 25 flats for the government.

À Perpignan, deux mouvements catalanistes s'organisent pour trouver des logements destinés à accueillir le gouvernement de Carles Puigdemont en cas d'exil forcé.

Le département français des Pyrénées-Orientales sera-t-il une zone de repli pour Carles Puigdemont? Vendredi, l'application de l'article 155 de la constitution est mise au vote au Sénat espagnol. Si une majorité de parlementaires vote "oui", Madrid prendra le contrôle de l'exécutif catalan, l'autonomie de la Catalogne sera donc suspendue, et son gouvernement destitué. Alors, pour certains militants indépendantistes catalans français, il faut faire vite et se préparer à toute éventualité. Dont celle d'une fuite forcée du chef du gouvernement vers la France, en cas de menace d'arrestation pour sédition.

"Nous avons pour l'instant 25 appartements mis à dispositions par nos sympathisants prêts à les accueillir, explique à L'Express Robert Casanovas, président du Comité d'autodétermination de la Catalogne Nord. Et une villa de 400 m² pour Puigdemont. Ils pourront y rester le temps qu'ils voudront." Selon lui, le risque d'une arrestation du chef du gouvernement régional est "élevé", c'est pourquoi son mouvement, associé au parti régionaliste Unitat Catalana, se devait de réagir. "Par solidarité avec nos frères du sud", dit-il.

"Nous sommes le même peuple"
"Cela s'inscrit dans la continuité des actions que nous avons mené jusqu'à présent, poursuit-il. Avant le référendum, nous avons fait venir les urnes et nous les avons caché chez nous. Nous avons également fait imprimer, par des entreprises amies, de nombreux bulletins pour que ce vote puisse avoir lieu. C'est normal, nous sommes le même peuple." En tout, six millions de bulletins ont été imprimés depuis la France, en coopération avec d'autres groupes tels que le parti politique Oui au Pays Catalan.

Des revendications catalanistes qui ne sont pas nées avec le référendum du 1er octobre. Formé en 2014, le Comité a mené plusieurs campagnes pour que la Catalogne espagnole et celle française puisse se réunir "comme avant le traité des Pyrénées" datant du 17e siècle.

Référendum d'autodétermination... en France
Elle a même tenté, en 2016, d'organiser une consultation dans le département avec deux questions simples: "êtes-vous favorable à une grande Catalogne regroupant la Catalogne Sud et la Catalogne Nord dans un seul État indépendant et souverain?" et "êtes-vous favorable à ce que la Catalogne Nord devienne seule un État indépendant et souverain?" Une démarche empêchée par la préfecture, par un recours en justice.

Ce combat remis à plus tard, les deux structures et leurs "centaines d'adhérents" mettent désormais toutes leurs forces dans l'aide qu'elles peuvent apporter à Barcelone. Depuis que cette chasse aux logements a été rendue publique, et reprise par France Bleu Roussillon, ils recevraient de "nombreux appels" de personnes proposant leur logement pour que les gouvernants catalans puissent y trouver refuge, d'après Robert Casanovas. Pour autant, l'initiative ne fait pas l'unanimité dans les rangs catalanistes.

Chez le parti Oui au Pays Catalan, on ne voit pas cette initiative d'un bon oeil. Le premier parti régionaliste du département, qui présente des candidats à chaque élection locale, dénonce "des gens qui vivent dans un rêve". "Ce n'est pas sérieux, réagi son président, Jordi Vera, joint par L'Express. Imprimer des bulletins et cacher des urnes faisaient partie de notre devoir de solidarité, nous y avons pris notre part. Mais anticiper un exil du gouvernement catalan, c'est ridicule."

A Barcelone, menaces de désobéissance
D'après lui, ce serait même une stratégie perdante pour la cause indépendantiste. "Vous imaginez un président fuir et laisser son peuple?", demande-t-il. Si une vague d'arrestations pour sédition de ministres catalans est ordonnée, comme ça a pu être le cas la semaine dernière pour Jordi Sanchez et Jordi Cuixart, deux dirigeants d'associations indépendantistes (ANC et Omnium), il leur faudrait l'accepter d'après Vera. Même si le délit de sédition est passible de 15 ans de prison en Espagne.

En référence, il cite le cas de Lluís Companys, ex-président de Catalogne qui avait été emprisonné en 1934 pour avoir proclamé l'indépendance de la région. "Aujourd'hui nous ne sommes pas en 1939, personne n'est menacé de mort, lance-t-il. Le combat doit être démocratique et dans les assemblées plutôt que dans la clandestinité."

À Barcelone, les événements semblent prendre cette direction. La majorité séparatiste du parlement régional catalan a annoncé la tenue d'une séance parlementaire jeudi. Le but: analyser "l'agression institutionnelle" du gouvernement conservateur de Mariano Rajoy, selon les précisions du chef de la coalition sécessionniste "Ensemble pour le oui" au parlement, Lluis Corominas. 

En cas de mise en oeuvre de mesures drastiques de la part de Madrid, les séparatistes ont menacé de faire voter une déclaration unilatérale d'indépendance au parlement catalan. Dans le même temps, l'aile la plus radicale des indépendantistes a promis d'orchestrer une campagne de "désobéissance massive" si Madrid persiste dans sa volonté de suspendre l'autonomie de la Catalogne. La lutte d'abord, donc. Si fuite il y a, ce sera pour plus tard.

[Eddie Teach]

Tf;dr

[celedhring]

Looks like the Catalan president will appear tomorrow in front of the Senate commission transacting the intervention to argue the regional government's side (that's part of the process but most assumed he wouldn't care). That's progress - he's refused consistently to appear in the national Congress or Senate to argue his position - although I don't expect any kind of compromise. I'm still looking at an UDI tomorrow afternoon or friday. And then pandemonium.

I hope to be wrong.

EDIT: The Catalan government saying that he won't go to that hearing. Last chance of de-escalation, gone.

[celedhring]

There's also a very persistent rumor that the most moderate members of the Catalan cabinet will quit before an UDI - if anything to avoid the 30 years in the slammer for open rebellion -, so if that happens in the next few hours it will be a sign of things to come.