The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[chipwich]

Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.

[Drakken]

Spanish Interior Minister just declared a few moments ago that the Catalan government was "inciting rebellion". Article 155 invocation is around the corner.

Oh boy.

[celedhring]

Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.

It's intimidating the non-separatists in Barcelona.

[Tamas]

Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.

It's intimidating the non-separatists in Barcelona.

I think you need to decide if independent Catalonia is a desirable outcome or not. If yes, stay and actively back and help the separatists, but if not, I'd be in a hurry trying to move my family out to other parts of Spain, temporarily. Sounds like things are going to get far worse before they normalise. I'd guess that even if the majority wants to de-escalate, the separatists have been radicalised too much for them to give up without some form of a fight.

[celedhring]

I think you need to decide if independent Catalonia is a desirable outcome or not. If yes, stay and actively back and help the separatists, but if not, I'd be in a hurry trying to move my family out to other parts of Spain, temporarily. Sounds like things are going to get far worse before they normalise. I'd guess that even if the majority wants to de-escalate, the separatists have been radicalised too much for them to give up without some form of a fight.

It's true that the majority wants to de-escalate. Moderate nationalist papers are running like headless chickens screaming in panic, but the street has taken over, mobs are setting the political agenda now. What could go wrong?

It's damn obvious now that the nationalist establishment DOESN'T want an UDI, they'd probably like to issue some pompous declaration that manages to kick the can down the road, but the radicals would eat them alive if it looks like they may be backing down. Yes, they won a huge PR victory this Sunday due to Madrid's utter idiocy, but they have backed themselves into a corner too.

And yeah, independent Catalonia would be an economic and social disaster, so I'm trying to secure a Plan B if it comes to pass. And I really don't see how we can return to a peaceful status quo in the short term.

[Tamas]

Yeah that's what I mean, it looks like an extreme, violent variant on the Brexit theme: the mob was given a chance to rule and they would not let that slip without a fight, which forces the hand of the leaders who are terrified of them and what they'd do with the country if the leaders tried to force through a sensible course of action.

It's the same here except the EU did not send in riot police.

[Drakken]

It's damn obvious now that the nationalist establishment DOESN'T want an UDI, they'd probably like to issue some pompous declaration that manages to kick the can down the road, but the radicals would eat them alive if it looks like they may be backing down. Yes, they won a huge PR victory this Sunday due to Madrid's utter idiocy, but they have backed themselves into a corner too.

Well, duh. Like all moderates in secessionist movements, they naively expected their adversary to just roll down, bow to "popular will", admit defeat, and start negotiating terms under their enlightened, rational leadership.

Now they have lost all control of the agenda. No UDI now will mean the de-facto end of Catalonia autonomy. Madrid is not only refusing to back down, they are actually upping the ante calling them rebels now - a code word for "we will be using force to utterly crush you if you do not back down". They know no one in the EU will come to their help because many of their partners have their own nationalist movements to deal with, so they are starting to see the writing on the wall and that they are risking to lose everything.

[celedhring]

My fear is that they will see an UDI as the only gamble for survival, seeking to provoke the suspension of the autonomy and with that launch more mobs into the streets. Then the only way for Madrid to re-assert control is through violence, and with that violence will come more calls for international intervention.

Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.

[Valmy]

They should have been cool all along and only given the secessionists air to punch at. Their system seemed ideal to do just that. I guess it was that rather rash judge that set them off. Now Catalonia is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor.

[Drakken]

Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.

This same misconception would be happening on Madrid's side: They'd expect the separatists to turn on their backs and surrender just because the money would not be entering anymore.

Problem is that if Madrid simply closes the money flow, UDI becomes unavoidable because Catalonia will have no other option but to repatriate their taxation points and start doing their own taxation, and this means independence since by the Constitution autonomous regions have no power of taxation. Or, they could borrow money on international markets waging on international recognition of their independence (good luck with that).

They are now on illegal grounds, why not go full way? In for the rope for a penny...

[celedhring]

They should have been cool all along and only given the secessionists air to punch at. Their system seemed ideal to do just that. I guess it was that rather rash judge that set them off. Now Catalonia is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor.

President Rajoy did just that during the previous secession vote in 2014 (really, this is just fucking Groundhog Day sometimes), allowing it to happen without sending in the police, and letting judges dish out the appropriate punishments afterwards (the previous nationalist government was all fined and disqualified from office). And... it worked, the vote produced the same numbers as this one and it was ignored by everybody. But he came under big pressure from hardcore conservative quarters for allowing the vote to happen at all.

[celedhring]

Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.

This same misconception would be happening on Madrid's side: They'd expect the separatists to turn on their backs and surrender just because the money would not be entering anymore.

Problem is that if Madrid simply closes the money flow, UDI becomes unavoidable because Catalonia will have no other option but to repatriate their taxation points and start doing their own taxation, and this means independence - or borrow money.

They are now on illegal grounds, why not go full way? In for the rope for a penny...

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.

[Drakken]

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.

If they go for UDI, they can - Constitution would no longer apply in Catalonia. The government will self-attribute the mandate to tax its citizens and establish its tax collection structure. In the short term, this means seize all state Spanish assets on the Catalonian soil - including tax collection structures.

I am not saying they will succeed. But if they proclaim an UDI they either go all the way or it remains empty words. Sovereignty - and recognition - requires control and assertion of power over a given territory.

[celedhring]

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.

If they go for UDI, they can - Constitution would no longer apply in Catalonia. The government will self-attribute the mandate to tax its citizens and establish its tax collection structure. In the short term, this means seize all state Spanish assets on the Catalonian soil - including tax collection structures.

This implies violence starting on the separatist side - these buildings are protected by Spanish police -, which renders the "I'm oppressed please help!" angle moot. The only way out for separatists is to provoke an international intervention that imposes a solution favorable to them. To me, that only happens if they bait Madrid into overreacting again.

[Drakken]

This implies violence starting on the separatist side - these buildings are protected by Spanish police -, which renders the "I'm oppressed please help!" angle moot. The only way out for separatists is to provoke an international intervention that imposes a solution favorable to them.

Oh, I agree with you on this. But then, there is no UDI and the separatists know that. UDI means booting the Spanish out of Catalonia.

International intervention will not come and Madrid knows that. Madrid's position is that states have the inherent right to protect their territorial integrity. I am sure Rajoy has had plenty of conversations with other members of the EU following Sunday. If he puffs his chest like this, it is because he is sure that no one will dare to condemn Spain to the point of intervening in its domestic affairs. The current silence of other EU countries over the whole issue is well damning enough.

What the separatists do not realize, is that international law does not recognize UDIs except in cases of extreme circumstances or gross human rights violation. UDIs are not permitted by international law, except backed by force or a consensus of international powers. While "violently" repressed, everyone except Catalonian separatists agrees that Sunday's referendum was a worthless sham. No one will come to their aid unless they become willing partners to a civil war party.