The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[celedhring]

So, the Catalan parliament has passed the law governing an independence referendum, as I write this, the Catalan government is signing the decree calling for the referendum to be held this coming October 1st. The non-nationalist opposition (roughly half of parliament, separatists have a slim majority) have walked out during the vote.

Tomorrow they will pass the law governing the transitional period should the "yes" win (and it will win, since there's no participation threshold in the law, 50%+1 is enough, and the opposition has called to boycott the referendum).

All of this is obviously illegal, and the Spanish Constitutional court will void it all tomorrow. The Catalan government has already said that it will ignore the ruling and proceed with the vote, putting itself in open revolt.

This is not going to end nicely.

[Iormlund]

Meh.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to money, and unlike Basques Catalonian politicians have no real control over taxes (which is why they've orchestrated this charade). All the central government has to do is freeze transfers and they are fucked. What are they going to do, create new taxes? Issue IOUs?

[celedhring]

That might've been true if it was still the previous guys (Mas & Co.). But the guys now running the government? They are true believers. Nope, they are going all the way.

It's not like cutting cash transfers is going to make much of a difference in just a few weeks, anyway. Too late for that. It's full head-on crash.

[Iormlund]

Just wait until the police, nurses, doctors, teachers and all the rest stop receiving a salary and cannot afford to pay their mortgages.

[HVC]

The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.

[The Brain]

Will the traitors hang?

[Iormlund]

The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.

It doesn't really need to. Accession is a matter where all countries have veto.

If Catalonia is ever going to be independent and join the EU, it needs to acquire independence not using confrontation, but by reaching an agreement with the rest of Spain.

[celedhring]

Just wait until the police, nurses, doctors, teachers and all the rest stop receiving a salary and cannot afford to pay their mortgages.

That's fine, but they'll declare independence before the next salary is due 

I'm only half-joking. Part of the separatist strategy is playing with dates very tightly (it's not like they care that there's a proper campaign or debate), so that the Spanish gov doesn't have actual time to do some of the stuff that they could do. For example there's no material time to approve the suspension of the Catalan autonomy before the referendum, and if they cut cash transfers it will take at least 3 months before the Catalan government has liquidity problems.

[Iormlund]

So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

[Zanza]

Arrest them for treason?

[Iormlund]

Arrest them for treason?

It's not a crime to call for a referendum, illegal or otherwise. To use public funds to pay for it though ...

[celedhring]

So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

When you have 40-50% of the population voting for parties willing to run roughshod through constitutional and democratic principles in order to achieve MUH FREEDOM, you can bet that unilateral independence is going to have an effect. Sure, long term or even mid term, unilateral independence is not viable, but you can bet that lots of damage can be done in the interim. And I don't mean just metaphorical damage.

[Zanza]

Arrest them for treason?

It's not a crime to call for a referendum, illegal or otherwise. To use public funds to pay for it though ...

Declaring independence might be a crime though? It would be a crime here as soon as there was any force behind it.

[HVC]

The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.

It doesn't really need to. Accession is a matter where all countries have veto.

If Catalonia is ever going to be independent and join the EU, it needs to acquire independence not using confrontation, but by reaching an agreement with the rest of Spain.

Yeah, but make it explicit. People are delusional (look at brexit).

[Jacob]

Well that's going to be a bit of a cluster fuck. Good thing it's happening now. 2017 was shaping up to be pretty uneventful until now, politically speaking....