Terror attack in Iran.

[Razgovory]

Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.

I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.

Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.

Their plans never make any damn sense.  They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia.  My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.

[Jacob]

Their plans never make any damn sense.  They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia.  My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.

I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.

[CountDeMoney]

I would think there's a substantial order of ballsy magnitude to pull something like this off in Iran rather than, say, European countries.  I suspect the Revolutionary Guard is a bit more...extreme...when it comes to dealing with the follow-up investigation, suspected associates, family members, etc., as opposed to western police agencies.

[Razgovory]

Their plans never make any damn sense.  They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia.  My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.

I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.

I wonder if any increase in volunteers and money is offset by having more people drop bombs on you, try and cut your funding sources, arm your enemies and land ground troops to fight you.

[Tamas]

Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.

I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.

Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.

Their plans never make any damn sense.  They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia.  My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.

Those were PR actions to increase the number of recruits.

[AnchorClanker]

Their plans never make any damn sense.  They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia.  My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.

I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.

[AnchorClanker]

I would think there's a substantial order of ballsy magnitude to pull something like this off in Iran rather than, say, European countries.  I suspect the Revolutionary Guard is a bit more...extreme...when it comes to dealing with the follow-up investigation, suspected associates, family members, etc., as opposed to western police agencies.

Almost certainly true, but they feel the need to hit Iran due to the massive support given to the Syrian government (and Hizbollah...)

Part of the ISIS DNA, and what made them split from AQ in the first place - Zarqawi engaged in inter-confessional killings in Iraq AGAINST THE EXPLICIT ORDERS of AQ Leadership.  Zarqawi and his gang (literally, gang) were engaging in violence on a level that even AQ couldn't stomach... and that's why they eventually split off (totally) from their nominal association to AQ.

[AnchorClanker]

PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else?  I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.

[mongers]

PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else?  I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.

One was definitely a native Baluchi for the SE. Not sure if he was the ring leader, but his origin was reported as Iranian born.

[AnchorClanker]

PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else?  I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.

One was definitely a native Baluchi for the SE. Not sure if he was the ring leader, but his origin was reported as Iranian born.

Ah, interesting.  There's been a long-running, low-level insurgency down there for quite some time.  It almost sounds like ISIS managed to get one of those guys to 'pledge' to ISIS so they could claim 'actions' as their own.

[Tonitrus]

Iranian Kurds have been implicated as well.  Dunno how legit that is.

[Tonitrus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/middleeast/iran-attack-isis-terrorism.html?_r=0

The men who made their way through the Parliament building on Wednesday, shooting assault rifles, throwing grenades and searching for a way into the main hall, were probably Iranian Kurds, security sources say, though only one has been identified. One of the two assailants at a shrine is understood to be an Iranian Kurd, the security sources said.

The Ministry of Intelligence identified one gunman, Serias Sadeghi, as an Iranian Kurd from the city of Paveh in the country's west near the Iraqi border. In 2014, the Democratic Party of Kurdistan Iran, an opposition party, published a report about increasing Islamic State activities in Iranian Kurdistan that singled him out as a prominent recruiter who, at times, held sessions in a local mosque.

[Zanza]

So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.

[AnchorClanker]

So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.

Few do.    

That's why I love it when people pontificate on things they don't really spend that much time studying.  It's amusing.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.

there are kurds that vote for ergdogan too and there are indeed kurds that are pro-IS. Most of them are, after all, still muslim and as such not above emulating their so-called prophet.