And you thought 2016 was bad? 2017 says "Challenge accepted"

[celedhring]

Just a thread to record all the things that can go horribly wrong in 2017, outside of the Trump threads.

First stop of the tour is the French April/May election, with a prelude in the Dutch March election.

My question is: can Le Pen win that? Tell me she can't. My nightmare scenario involves a terror attack in spring that drives up her vote - and ISIS will probably try, since it's in their best interests to get Le Pen elected.

[LaCroix]

I'm hoping the DOW plummets so my justifying not learning how to create a roth account becomes more than an excuse for laziness

[Oexmelin]

Things have changed considerably in the last week or so, with the crashing and burning of the right wing candidate, Fillon. I am not sure that any prediction can hold now, and that includes Le Pen's performance. It was clearer, in my sense, that with Fillon and Le Pen at the second round of voting, Le Pen Could have made it (could, not would) But if the centrist candidate, Macron, makes it, I think he would be in a better position to win against Le Pen. If worst came to pass, Le Pen's problem would be to find a parliamentary majority with which to govern, in the subsequent legislative Election. But then again, so would Macron.

[celedhring]

Also, I wonder if hitching herself to an American president is going to be *that* helpful for a French right-wing presidential candidate. 

[Oexmelin]

Honestly, I have no idea. I didn't think a US president being best buddy with a Russian autocrat would have gone well with the Americans, but I have been proven otherwise.

[11B4V]

Honestly, I have no idea. I didn't think a US president being best buddy with a Russian autocrat would have gone well with the Americans, but I have been proven otherwise.

DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T TRUST THEM,..........

[grumbler]

Honestly, I have no idea. I didn't think a US president being best buddy with a Russian autocrat would have gone well with the Americans, but I have been proven otherwise.

DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T TRUST THEM,..........

....FAILING MAINSTREAM MEDIA LIES AGAIN. SAD.

[Ed Anger]

I like the Le Pen niece.

[viper37]

My question is: can Le Pen win that?

Yes she can.  But as Oex said, there's a lot of uncertainty right now.

I thought Brexit wouldn't pass.  I hoped Americans would smarten up and not let Trump win the election.  I never thought there was enough racism in my nation to provoke the shooting of innocents during their prayers.  Really, I know nothing.

So I'm not making any predictions on LePen.

[Valmy]

My question is: can Le Pen win that?

Yes she can.  But as Oex said, there's a lot of uncertainty right now.

I thought Brexit wouldn't pass.  I hoped Americans would smarten up and not let Trump win the election.  I never thought there was enough racism in my nation to provoke the shooting of innocents during their prayers.  Really, I know nothing.

So I'm not making any predictions on LePen.

Yeah.

Anytime cooler heads want to start prevailing would be great.

[Zoupa]

My guesstimation on Le Pen: high 20s, low 30s in the 1st round. Most likely high 20s % and she comes out of the first round on top.

Depending on who she faces in the 2nd round, I would say her ceiling is 35%, no more. Which is still insanely high, but these are the times we're living in.

[garbon]

My guesstimation on Le Pen: high 20s, low 30s in the 1st round. Most likely high 20s % and she comes out of the first round on top.

Depending on who she faces in the 2nd round, I would say her ceiling is 35%, no more. Which is still insanely high, but these are the times we're living in.

Here's to hoping.

[Duque de Bragança]

To be honest, I don't think Mélenchon (former PS apparachik no posing as true left and losing weight thanks to a quinoa diet) or Hamon a.k.a Mr "There are too many whites in Brest" + plus 750 € per month for free to all (universal income without any clue in how to finance it) winning is really that much better that a Le Pen victory.
http://www.letelegramme.fr/ar/viewarticle1024.php?aaaammjj=20070930&article=20070930-1669882&type=ar

I suppose Bayrou could come back in the race, or maybe this is Macron's chance (yay Rotschild banker for the left!).
Juppé has repeated he won't come back. At least for now.

Le Pen will make it to the second round, or so it seems. Anyone opposed to her should be winning. So here is your hope. 

[Duque de Bragança]

I like the Le Pen niece.

Wrong Le Pen (if only...). Sorry.