Trump's first war?

[Jacob]

Trump has four years, has a record of wanting to push people around and establish he's the top dog, and seems enamoured with US military might.

As well, military conflict tends to cause the US to rally around their president, at least to some extent, so it may well seem politically expedient for the president to fight a war.

What, in you view, is the most likely place Trump's first war* will happen?

Please feel free to elaborate on the where and why.

*by war I mean any military conflict where ground troops are committed in numbers greater than a few thousand and continually engaged in combat for more than a few weeks, rather than a purely air based campaign (i.e. Panama, Grenada, Desrt Storm 1 and 2, Afghanistan qualify but the bombing runs in Syria and Libya do not f. ex.)

[11B4V]

None

[Grey Fox]

Wild Card vote - Civil War.

[Jacob]

None

Why do you think that?

[celedhring]

I can't see any war with boots on the ground involved, unless there's another 9/11-like event involved. The political cost is way too heavy.

[grumbler]

None

Agreed.  All hat, no cattle.  He'll launch some air raid someplace in retaliation for an attack, then announce that it was a total, overwhelming success, declare complete victory, and that will be the end of it.  This may happen three or four times.  Trump has no interest in fighting wars.  They would cramp his style.

[Jacob]

None

Agreed.  All hat, no cattle.  He'll launch some air raid someplace in retaliation for an attack, then announce that it was a total, overwhelming success, declare complete victory, and that will be the end of it.  This may happen three or four times.  Trump has no interest in fighting wars.  They would cramp his style.

I hope you are right.

[Berkut]

The danger however is that he tries that with someone who isn't willing to just call it a day after a couple rounds of bombing. Like China. Or North Korea.

[FunkMonk]

I think, ultimately, Trump is a massive pussy. He would back down if the Chinese or the Russians or whatever made a serious stand against him.

I can see Bannon pushing for massive nuclear exchange though, so it's 50-50.

[Eddie Teach]

Wild Card vote - Civil War.

Like I said, if we get in a civil war, we're taking you all with us. 

[derspiess]

California!

[viper37]

I voted middle-east, because I thought it would include airstrikes&such.  But if we exclude airstrikes and special forces operations against government targets, than it would be China.

He will push China until they retaliate, and I think they understand his policies as good as he does.  It might even play in Putin's favour that the US and China engage in a warmer war together.  It'll give him lots of leeway to pursue some interests toward the Baltic States.

[The Brain]

None. He sucks the cocks of foreign leaders, he doesn't fight them.

[Eddie Teach]

None. He sucks the cocks of foreign leaders, he doesn't fight them.

Don't let him hear you say that, or he might go to war with Sweden.

[Zanza]

I think he could escalate the war against ISIS in a repetition of The Surge. So I voted the first option.