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What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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Admiral Yi

Quote from: Zoupa on October 23, 2025, 07:05:57 PMConsidering the US signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving less per capita than Slovakia is definitely glass 99% empty.

What a weird thing to argue about.

Zoupa

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2025, 08:09:26 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 23, 2025, 07:05:57 PMConsidering the US signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving less per capita than Slovakia is definitely glass 99% empty.

What a weird thing to argue about.

Reality bites.

Admiral Yi


Tonitrus

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2025, 08:09:26 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 23, 2025, 07:05:57 PMConsidering the US signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving less per capita than Slovakia is definitely glass 99% empty.

What a weird thing to argue about.

I would contend at most half-weird.  If we were to really honor the spirit (probably utopian to think the Russians ever would...but 1994 was those heady days not long after the fall of the SU) of the Budapest Memorandum, we'd have US/NATO forces fighting in support of Ukraine right now.  The lesson of the BM is that no future country will ever sign away their nuclear weapons for a flimsy security guarantee.

The other half..."...giving less per capita than..." I would concede.  Per capita contributions are not always a good measuring stick, and I would agree this is one of those.  That being said, I'd have been much more hawk-ish than either Trump or Biden were.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Tonitrus on October 23, 2025, 09:18:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2025, 08:09:26 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 23, 2025, 07:05:57 PMConsidering the US signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving less per capita than Slovakia is definitely glass 99% empty.

What a weird thing to argue about.

I would contend at most half-weird.  If we were to really honor the spirit (probably utopian to think the Russians ever would...but 1994 was those heady days not long after the fall of the SU) of the Budapest Memorandum, we'd have US/NATO forces fighting in support of Ukraine right now.  The lesson of the BM is that no future country will ever sign away their nuclear weapons for a flimsy security guarantee.

The other half..."...giving less per capita than..." I would concede.  Per capita contributions are not always a good measuring stick, and I would agree this is one of those.  That being said, I'd have been much more hawk-ish than either Trump or Biden were.

But that's the half empty part.  My expectation when Trump entered office was aid would be cut to zero.  I am pleasantly surprised it is not.  That's the half full part.

Tonitrus

Of course, I am arguing from my POV.  Zoupa would likely still disagree with you.

And depending on the numbers...might be 1/8 - 1/4 full.  :P

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Tonitrus on October 23, 2025, 09:25:09 PMOf course, I am arguing from my POV.  Zoupa would likely still disagree with you.

And depending on the numbers...might be 1/8 - 1/4 full.  :P

Show me your calculations. :nerd:



Syt

We are born dying, but we are compelled to fancy our chances.
- hbomberguy

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

HVC

Technically it for Doug Ford's government, so Ontario,  not Canada. Wasn't fake as far as I know, just Reagan quote about tariffs.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Tamas

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2025, 09:08:16 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 23, 2025, 08:30:43 PMReality bites.

Sometimes it does not bite as much as you expected it to.

The thing is, because of the Budapest Memorandum (guaranteeing Ukraine's borders), the UK, the USA etc. should by now be at war with Russia. I understand why they are not in war with Russia, but they did break their treaty obligations almost as much as Russia did.

The Brain

If Canada didn't border the US they could join the EU.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Syt

Quote from: HVC on October 24, 2025, 02:43:45 AMTechnically it for Doug Ford's government, so Ontario,  not Canada. Wasn't fake as far as I know, just Reagan quote about tariffs.

Like any of that matters. :D
We are born dying, but we are compelled to fancy our chances.
- hbomberguy

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Baron von Schtinkenbutt

Quote from: Tonitrus on October 23, 2025, 09:18:05 PMThe lesson of the BM is that no future country will ever sign away their nuclear weapons for a flimsy security guarantee.

Part of the reason Ukraine did that was they didn't think, and were likely correct in this assessment, that they could properly rehabilitate and maintain the ex-Soviet weapons they possessed.  Thus, they would "have" nuclear weapons, but would not actually have a credible nuclear deterrent.  They would have had a financial and security burden they couldn't afford at the time, though.

What they should have done, after the assurances were shown to be weaksauce in 2014, is withdraw from the NPT and start developing a credible, home-grown deterrent.  I don't think it would have been difficult for Ukraine to build and maintain low-yield tactical weapons then.  However, for various reasons Ukrainian leadership actively rejected the idea even after the assurances of the Memorandum were proving hollow.