What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Brain]

I think it's certain that the administration is preparing for a coup (if one proves necessary). They've already launched a coup attempt once, in less favorable circumstances.

[Admiral Yi]

My suggestion is to shape this discussion with reference to the ample available data on homelessness. eg:

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/who-is-homeless-in-the-united-states-a-2025-update
https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/08/22/how-housing-costs-drive-levels-of-homelessness
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/institute-working-papers/homelessness

The "scary" mentally ill homeless can be very visible but are not necessarily representative.  The fastest growing segment of homeless consists of children under 18.  There is a very strong correlation between rising housing costs and homelessness and many studies concluding there is a causal linkage.  Higher real incomes would definitely have a significant and material impact on reducing homelessness.

The Pew people do not seem to have considered the possibility that some of the homeless in a given city are not locals.

[Jacob]

The Pew people do not seem to have considered the possibility that some of the homeless in a given city are not locals.

If that is the case - that homeless in a given city are not locals - that undermines the argument that it is the Democratic policies of the cities that cause homelessness.

If a significant number of homeless originate from outside the city, it is possible that it is Republican policies in their area of origin that lead to homelessness.

[Admiral Yi]

If that is the case - that homeless in a given city are not locals - that undermines the argument that it is the Democratic policies of the cities that cause homelessness.

If a significant number of homeless originate from outside the city, it is possible that it is Republican policies in their area of origin that lead to homelessness.

It's the foundation of the argument that making life as a homeless person easier attracts more homeless people.

[HVC]

If that is the case - that homeless in a given city are not locals - that undermines the argument that it is the Democratic policies of the cities that cause homelessness.

If a significant number of homeless originate from outside the city, it is possible that it is Republican policies in their area of origin that lead to homelessness.

It's the foundation of the argument that making life as a homeless person easier attracts more homeless people.

To what end though? If you you make it difficult for them everywhere they go where?

[Zoupa]

Out of sight. The main complaint seems to be they bother the very fine people of New Jersey.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Pew people do not seem to have considered the possibility that some of the homeless in a given city are not locals.

How would that explain homelessness rates rising in say Fresno and Raleigh, while falling in Chicago and Houston?  Is the claim that masses of homeless in Houston are picking up stakes for Raleigh, because ?

[Admiral Yi]

How would that explain homelessness rates rising in say Fresno and Raleigh, while falling in Chicago and Houston?  Is the claim that masses of homeless in Houston are picking up stakes for Raleigh, because ?

Good year round weather, plenty of generous yuppies.

[Jacob]

It's the foundation of the argument that making life as a homeless person easier attracts more homeless people.

For sure, that makes sense. If homeless people have some level of mobility, then presumably they'll move towards jurisdictions where policies make their lives less miserable rather than more miserable.

[Jacob]

To develop the thought a bit more, then...

Democratic cities have policies (and infrastructure) that makes existence as a homeless person less miserable. Therefore we see more homeless people in those places - not because the Democratic cities create homelessness, but because MAGA policies increase the homeless population and ensure that it's more attractive to leave MAGA jurisdictions.

Makes sense.

Trump then deploys the military to Democratic cities to control the "warzone" (created by MAGA policies that increases homelessness and makes it hard for them to live outside of the cities). Coincidentally, it also sets him up for deploying the military against political opponents in those cities.

That also makes sense, from a MAGA perspective.

I'm still not convinced that the important thing here is that urban Democrat policies failing to inflict sufficient misery on the homeless is the key issue here, but I guess by now we're all getting used to agreeing to differ.

[The Minsky Moment]

How would that explain homelessness rates rising in say Fresno and Raleigh, while falling in Chicago and Houston?  Is the claim that masses of homeless in Houston are picking up stakes for Raleigh, because ?

Good year round weather, plenty of generous yuppies.

Fresno doesn't have great weather in the winter, better off in Houston.  Don't think it's too yuppie heavy either. 

[Razgovory]

A large amount of MAGA areas are rural, which isn't the greatest place if you want to panhandle.  So if people want to panhandle they go to more urban areas.  I don't know if "MAGA" policies are driving homelessness.  Certainly property prices have increased dramatically since 2008, but I don't what MAGA has anything to do with it.  If Property prices are what is driving homeless then you'd expect the homeless going to small towns where the price of housing is lower.

[Valmy]

A large amount of MAGA areas are rural, which isn't the greatest place if you want to panhandle.  So if people want to panhandle they go to more urban areas.  I don't know if "MAGA" policies are driving homelessness.  Certainly property prices have increased dramatically since 2008, but I don't what MAGA has anything to do with it.  If Property prices are what is driving homeless then you'd expect the homeless going to small towns where the price of housing is lower.

Those are certainly some thoughts.

I have certainly seen tons of rural poverty with people scrapping by in absolutely atrocious living conditions. I don't know if living in atrocious third world conditions count as homelessness. But in rural areas the homeless and destitute did tend to congregate at the county seat. Why? Because that is where they could collect benefits. So, you know, there is something to the notion that the impoverished might travel to some place they can eek out an existence.

[Razgovory]

The homeless have been traveling in the US for a long time.  Hobo's jumping the rails and such.

[Tamas]

So anyways, I was thinking that if your opponent's (should be called the enemy by this stage) key strategy is to create chaos, conflict and division so they can dismantle the remnants of democratic institutions, then perhaps shutting down the federal government is not the right counter-strategy to pursue.

But of course this is where the trap is. The fascists shut down the government when you are in power so either you follow suit when they are in, or you make it look like they can govern better.