What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

I want to believe that the GOP majority is narrow enough that Dems can still pass Ukraine bills with enough bipartisan support.

Yeah I think so. But I think in terms of propaganda climate we're going to see an increase in profile of "Ukraine skeptics" and associated activity.

[alfred russel]

Looks like Taylor Green is going all in on "auditing funds to the Ukraine" and generally pushing a Putinist line in Congress.

I want to believe that the GOP majority is narrow enough that Dems can still pass Ukraine bills with enough bipartisan support.

There is no hope of the Dems passing anything without the agreement of the GOP leadership. The GOP controls the house & its committees. Now if GOP house leadership wants to bring bills to the floor that a portion of its membership hates but can get offsetting democratic support, that will work.

Historically when there is divided government, each side gets some of what they want through compromise, and that can work. Also the president can do stuff without explicit authorization in lots of cases.

[Barrister]

I rather suspect that the House is going to pass a lot of Ukraine aid in the lame-duck session.  Enough to last a year or more.

[Admiral Yi]

Also the president can do stuff without explicit authorization in lots of cases.

But not new spending.

[The Minsky Moment]

I want to believe that the GOP majority is narrow enough that Dems can still pass Ukraine bills with enough bipartisan support.

Yeah I think so. But I think in terms of propaganda climate we're going to see an increase in profile of "Ukraine skeptics" and associated activity.

The question is how long it will take before Putin's top bitch starts ripping Ukraine, now that he has kicked off his Presidential campaign. 

[Jacob]

The question is how long it will take before Putin's top bitch starts ripping Ukraine, now that he has kicked off his Presidential campaign. 

Yeah, I'm guessing we'll see more co-ordinated activity from Trump, Carlson, Taylor-Green and their whole faction.

[alfred russel]

Also the president can do stuff without explicit authorization in lots of cases.

But not new spending.

Someone can read through all the defense authorizations and come up with ways to get support to Ukraine.

[OttoVonBismarck]

You can actually spend money without congressional authorization in a few contexts--Trump used the national emergencies act to divert DoD money to his border wall, I believe to the tune of a few billion dollars, which isn't big potatoes but isn't nothing either.

You also can get a Ukraine funding bill on the floor of the House against McCarthy's wishes via a discharge petition--there have been like 5 successful ones since 1985, so it is very rare (but a House majority this narrow is also quite rare.) Unlike a lot of votes which can be based on quorums, a discharge petition cannot succeed unless it receives an absolute majority of the total membership of the House (219), so it isn't something where it can pass with a bunch of abstentions, the Democrats would have to get ~7-10 (whatever the final # is) Republicans to sign onto it.

There are certainly many more Republicans in the House who would support a Ukraine aid bill, but it is very questionable if you get even 1 Republican to support a discharge petition, at least not if McCarthy is willing to actually pass some form of aid bill. If McCarthy truly refuses to pass any Ukraine funding, he could face a successful discharge petition from national security Republicans, but my guess is his intention is to continue to pass funding for Ukraine just with more scrutiny and hearings held on the matter than we currently see.

[alfred russel]

You can actually spend money without congressional authorization in a few contexts--Trump used the national emergencies act to divert DoD money to his border wall, I believe to the tune of a few billion dollars, which isn't big potatoes but isn't nothing either.

You also can get a Ukraine funding bill on the floor of the House against McCarthy's wishes via a discharge petition--there have been like 5 successful ones since 1985, so it is very rare (but a House majority this narrow is also quite rare.) Unlike a lot of votes which can be based on quorums, a discharge petition cannot succeed unless it receives an absolute majority of the total membership of the House (219), so it isn't something where it can pass with a bunch of abstentions, the Democrats would have to get ~7-10 (whatever the final # is) Republicans to sign onto it.

There are certainly many more Republicans in the House who would support a Ukraine aid bill, but it is very questionable if you get even 1 Republican to support a discharge petition, at least not if McCarthy is willing to actually pass some form of aid bill. If McCarthy truly refuses to pass any Ukraine funding, he could face a successful discharge petition from national security Republicans, but my guess is his intention is to continue to pass funding for Ukraine just with more scrutiny and hearings held on the matter than we currently see.

My guess is that the republicans end up with something like 220-224 seats which is where the democrats were last term. There was speculation the problem democrats would have with such a majority and they didn't have any...should be an interesting comparative of republican vs. democratic congressional cohesion.

[Admiral Yi]

If I were the QAnon wing of the GOP Ukraine is not the very first fight I would pick.

[Razgovory]

They believe that Ukrainian funding it somehow being kicked back to Joe Biden through his son Hunter.

[Grey Fox]

The Trump Kushner strategy. Of course, they think all president do that.

[Admiral Yi]

If McCarthy truly refuses to pass any Ukraine funding, he could face a successful discharge petition from national security Republicans, but my guess is his intention is to continue to pass funding for Ukraine just with more scrutiny and hearings held on the matter than we currently see.

McCarthy is on record as saying Ukraine funding will drop with a Republican House.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If McCarthy truly refuses to pass any Ukraine funding, he could face a successful discharge petition from national security Republicans, but my guess is his intention is to continue to pass funding for Ukraine just with more scrutiny and hearings held on the matter than we currently see.

McCarthy is on record as saying Ukraine funding will drop with a Republican House.

He isn't. He's on record saying it won't be a blank check.

I feel like that's been repeatedly said here for weeks? I guess the narrative is just better when you believe the GOP will gut Ukraine funding.

[Admiral Yi]

He isn't. He's on record saying it won't be a blank check.

My bad.