What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[HVC]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

I think you're right and hope you're right. I always assumed Biden was one and done. I don't think he even really wanted to serve the single term.

It's finally time for Hillary to shine

[Eddie Teach]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

I think you're right and hope you're right. I always assumed Biden was one and done. I don't think he even really wanted to serve the single term.

It's finally time for Hillary to shine

Sorry, you have to be a natural born citizen.

[HVC]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

I think you're right and hope you're right. I always assumed Biden was one and done. I don't think he even really wanted to serve the single term.

It's finally time for Hillary to shine

Sorry, you have to be a natural born citizen.

I figured Yi would be the one to make that joke

[grumbler]

Reading now that Ivanka and Jared Kushner are refusing to get involved in Trump's new election campaign.  Both were missing from the podium when he announced, and now it appears that it wasn't because Trump didn't bother to invite them.

[Barrister]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

I dunno man.

Biden wasn't exactly the picture of health in 2020, but in the end there was no other obvious candidate.  The same holds true no 2024.  Bernie is even older than Biden.  Harris has singularly failed to impress on the national stage.  We can talk all we like about Buttigieg but he still is very young with very little political clout.

I very much see Biden kind-of wishing to retire, but feeling like there's nobody else and running again.

I also very much disagree with the "well anybody can beat Trump" kind of thinking.  Trump is very beatable, but 2016 showed us that the candidate matters.

[alfred russel]

It would be nice if Biden decided to retire for the good of the country, but he spent most of his career in the senate. Where people don't retire in their 90s when they need to wear diapers. Grassley just got reelected to a term that ends when he is 95. Biden's mentor Bob Byrd famously died at 92 just days after pooping his pants while giving a speech on the senate floor, and tragically didn't even notice he pooped himself so kept talking, despite the poop running down his leg onto the floor to the horror of the galleries and television audience.

I'm not counting on it.

[Jacob]

Historically, how many presidents declined to run after their first term?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Polk--he promised as much when he was elected and lived up to it, he died shortly after leaving office.

LBJ--while he definitely left "under pressure" from a viable primary challenger in '68, he was not technically forced out and many think that while it would have been ugly, he probably would have held on to win the nomination (remember in this cycle the party still had a lot of power regardless of who won a couple early primaries.)

I think most of the rest of the single termers who didn't run again were explicitly rejected by their party, not necessarily in a primary battle (no sitting President has failed to secure renomination in the era in which primaries actually determined the nominee), but in the party conventions.

[Barrister]

Historically, how many presidents declined to run after their first term?

LBJ?  He started running but then dropped out when the nomination battle appeared rocky.

Calvin Coolidge.  Became President in 1923 on the death of Harding, won election in his own right in 1924, did not stand for re-election in 1928.

When it comes to Biden though it's worth noting he's already the oldest US President ever, so historical comparisons start to lose relevance.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Calvin was technically finishing up his second term when he declined to run, though--obviously not his second full term. He remarked that if he ran for yet another term it would mean his total time as President would be over 10 years, which he said was "too long for any one man."

[Sheilbh]

I'm not so sure he is running on fumes.

As I say I think it would be better if he only did one term.

But I think he's been more effective than expected, especially given the state of Congress. Infrastructure, student loans, climate, response on Ukraine, the democracy argument in the midterms (and the results themselves) and, I'd argue, China policy - I genuinely think he's doing a good job (I think there's a case that he'll have more solid achievements than most other recent presidents).

My suspicion is that's how he sees it too - he looks more chipper and like he's enjoying it right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks, based on the last two years, that he's the best person for the job and should keep going.

[Barrister]

Calvin was technically finishing up his second term when he declined to run, though--obviously not his second full term. He remarked that if he ran for yet another term it would mean his total time as President would be over 10 years, which he said was "too long for any one man."

Because I am not exactly an expert on Calvin Coolidge I had to google him.

He became President in August 1923. He wouldn't have been President for 10 years.  Rather because had had already been Vice-President since 1921 he said "Ten years in Washington is longer than any other man has had it – too long".



Obviously Biden doesn't feel that way since he's been in the executive for 10 years already, and his total time in Washington goes back decades.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I generally don't want someone as old as Biden to be President--nor do I want someone as old as Trump. I think Trump was at the absolute upper limit of age I would really want to see at his swearing in in 2017, but that being said this is the world we live in.

I generally think the Democrats should stay the course with Biden--for the simple reason that there is no strong evidence they have anyone who will do better in 2024, and decent evidence that Biden will be a very effective foil to Trump's chances.

My belief is that Trump is quite beatable in '24, and Biden is probably as well positioned to beat him as any Democrat who could conceivably win a nomination.

I think a non-Trump Republican, particularly one who can at least "act less insane" would present a very difficult challenge for Biden, maybe an insurmountable one. However, there is nothing that leads me to think Trump will fail to secure the nomination.

[Barrister]

I'm not so sure he is running on fumes.

Because the GOP likes to present Joe Biden as being a near gibbering idiot, there's a counter-narrative that Biden is absolutely fine and healthy.

From where I sit though, while Biden is still certainly competent, he's not the man he was even back when he was Obama's VP.  Age is definitely taking its toll.  Whether that counts as "running on fumes" or not I'll leave to you.

[Gups]

It would be nice if Biden decided to retire for the good of the country, but he spent most of his career in the senate. Where people don't retire in their 90s when they need to wear diapers. Grassley just got reelected to a term that ends when he is 95. Biden's mentor Bob Byrd famously died at 92 just days after pooping his pants while giving a speech on the senate floor, and tragically didn't even notice he pooped himself so kept talking, despite the poop running down his leg onto the floor to the horror of the galleries and television audience.

I'm not counting on it.

Ugh. Not heard that story