What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[DGuller]

That kind of attitude is what enables conspiracies.  If every talk of conspiracy is crazy nonsense, then how is anyone supposed to blow the whistle on the real conspiracy?  Just because some claims of false flag operations are clearly crazed ravings doesn't mean that all are.

The key for me is that conspiracies require a significant amount of evidence to take seriously.  It's too easy to throw around the claim with little to back it up so the burden of proof is much higher.  In the case of the second tanker attack there isn't enough evidence to claim a false flag, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand because there's little indication atm who perpetrated it.  Without more evidence I'd guess the most likely culprit is Iranian hardliners trying to disrupt the Japanese attempt at negotiation.

I didn't intend to opine on this particular issue, it was just a general statement in response to Raz's general statement.

[Tonitrus]

Tough to pin shooting down the drone on the UAE.

Especially as Iran has proudly said they shot it down.

It's just the limpet-mining of the tankers that is still an open question.

In my own opinion...I think its probably that this is the IRGC trying to pick a fight (they have certainly shown not to be very rational actors).  The gain in that would be in believing the U.S. would at most commit to a very limited war/strikes, and it would pull attention away from a fast-sinking economic situation. 

[Razgovory]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

That kind of attitude is what enables conspiracies.  If every talk of conspiracy is crazy nonsense, then how is anyone supposed to blow the whistle on the real conspiracy?  Just because some claims of false flag operations are clearly crazed ravings doesn't mean that all are.

Believing in conspiracy theories allows bad actors to not be held responsible for their actions cause it might be a "False Flag".  It's choose your own reality.

[Tamas]

I was talking about the ships not the drone. The drone seems more like a natural consequence of what happens when you raise tensions and prepare for war.

[DGuller]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

That kind of attitude is what enables conspiracies.  If every talk of conspiracy is crazy nonsense, then how is anyone supposed to blow the whistle on the real conspiracy?  Just because some claims of false flag operations are clearly crazed ravings doesn't mean that all are.

Believing in conspiracy theories allows bad actors to not be held responsible for their actions cause it might be a "False Flag".  It's choose your own reality.

Yes, blanket beliefs when careful consideration of individual facts is required can be bad in both directions.  Another example is that believing that all accused are guilty is bad, and so is believing that all accused are framed.

[Malthus]

I guess the better question is this: is there any evidence to show this particular attack was or was not a "false flag"? I mean, other than simply assuming that everything the Trump administration says is a lie?

To my mind, the Trump administration is completely indifferent to truth, but not so easily predictable as telling the 180 degree opposite of the truth in each and every instance ...   

On the one hand, there is the Trump administration; on the other, the Iranians are no strangers to attacking shipping in the Gulf for various reasons.

The Internet 'experts' are all unanimous that this is cooked up by Trump etc., but they have a raging hate boner for Trump (fully deserved, but it clouds the collective judgment something fierce). I simply haven't seen enough actual evidence to have an opinion. 

[Maximus]

Trumps MO his entire presidency has been creating crises and then "solving" them.

[Sophie Scholl]

So... we're taking Trump and Friends at their word now?  Huh.  That's a magical new development.

[Malthus]

So... we're taking Trump and Friends at their word now?  Huh.  That's a magical new development.

I don't think anyone is saying that. 

Assuming whatever Trump and Friends say is always the exact opposite of the truth makes them, ironically, just as reliable a source as if Trump and Friends always knew what the truth was and always told the truth; it seems a large percentage of the Internet world does just that.

[Razgovory]

Trumps MO his entire presidency has been creating crises and then "solving" them.

And that somehow proves that they clandestinely attacked shipping for the last two months?

[Razgovory]

To all the mini Alex Jones who are operating on the Cui Bono model of speculating without proof, what is the point of Trump attacking international shipping?  To demonstrate to the world that he's indecisive?  So he can make order an punitive attack and then call it off at the last minute? So he can request talks with Iran that the Iranians ignore?  To start a war he can't actually fight?  To further alienate the internal community and get sympathy for Iran?  Is Trump so devoted to projecting his weakness that he would come up with weird plots to prove it?

[Tamas]

Maybe it's the Saudis, knowing that parts of the US government would love to start a shooting war

[jimmy olsen]

Maybe it's the Saudis, knowing that parts of the US government would love to start a shooting war

The Saudis want to fight Iran to the last American.

[Sophie Scholl]

So he can request talks with Iran that the Iranians ignore?

You might want to reconsider your view on this.  He tweeted that he was open to it amidst a whole bunch of shit talking and then contradictory statements from Bolton and Pompeo.  Both of whom would looooove to see a war with Iran occur.  Trump may want to talk to them.  Maybe.  Depending on who he has talked to last.  He may legitimately want to avoid war.  I actually think he personally does.  However, his random actions, random words, and most importantly the consistent actions and words of those he has appointed, condoned, and not condemned speak much louder than an occasional inconsistent tweet.

[Tamas]

Maybe it's the Saudis, knowing that parts of the US government would love to start a shooting war

The Saudis want to fight Iran to the last American.

well yeah precisely my point. There are a lot of parties with genuine interest in provoking a US-Iran war with ridiculous BS like the ship "attacks". Pretty much the only party in the region with interest contrary to this is Iran.