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What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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11B4V

Quote from: DGuller on December 10, 2017, 05:09:23 PM
If you have something to say, by all means feel free to elucidate your position.  Firing off sarcastic potshots nonstop, while never committing yourself by fully expressing your own opinion, is chickenshit.

GOP is a bunch of retards.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

jimmy olsen

Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 03:13:31 PM
Quote from: Berkut on December 08, 2017, 04:12:54 PM
AR, you are confusing race with income.

The tendencies of the wealthy to skew Republican and the poor Dem hasn't been true for a very long time.

Which is no real surprise, really. Populism requires low intelligence and a healthy amount of ignorance, and low intelligence, ignorance, and lack of education very much correlate with the current Republican Party.

As Tim's chart shows, the lower incomes still skew democrat and the upper incomes republican. As I mentioned the effect is less than before, but it is still the case.
Skew implies a gap a lot larger than 1-2%
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Oexmelin

Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 10, 2017, 12:10:21 PM
Dude, this isn't a pendulum.  This is a 4G tailspin blackout.  There's no epiphanic "coming to their senses" scene.  There are no happy endings here.

A thousand times this. The hardest point to convey to students, in US history, is that there is no magic system that keeps everything right and proper, in wait for the automatic recentering that will inevitably happen once people simply reveal the good that was buried in there all along. Even RBG on the Supreme Court recently used hat vocabulary of the magic pendulum - it's mind boggling.
Que le grand cric me croque !

alfred russel

Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 10, 2017, 06:18:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 03:13:31 PM
Quote from: Berkut on December 08, 2017, 04:12:54 PM
AR, you are confusing race with income.

The tendencies of the wealthy to skew Republican and the poor Dem hasn't been true for a very long time.

Which is no real surprise, really. Populism requires low intelligence and a healthy amount of ignorance, and low intelligence, ignorance, and lack of education very much correlate with the current Republican Party.

As Tim's chart shows, the lower incomes still skew democrat and the upper incomes republican. As I mentioned the effect is less than before, but it is still the case.
Skew implies a gap a lot larger than 1-2%

It is a crime that you are involved in the education of young people.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

jimmy olsen

Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 06:46:10 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 10, 2017, 06:18:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 03:13:31 PM
Quote from: Berkut on December 08, 2017, 04:12:54 PM
AR, you are confusing race with income.

The tendencies of the wealthy to skew Republican and the poor Dem hasn't been true for a very long time.

Which is no real surprise, really. Populism requires low intelligence and a healthy amount of ignorance, and low intelligence, ignorance, and lack of education very much correlate with the current Republican Party.

As Tim's chart shows, the lower incomes still skew democrat and the upper incomes republican. As I mentioned the effect is less than before, but it is still the case.
Skew implies a gap a lot larger than 1-2%

It is a crime that you are involved in the education of young people.

Look, in math it simply means non parrallel lines, but it's use in everday conversation is not the same. It implies a greater deviation, and often bias as well.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

DGuller

In math skew implies a non-zero third moment.  :smarty:

Razgovory

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 10, 2017, 04:35:38 AM
I predict Moore wins and that's when the Republican pushback starts, when they realize they've gone absolutely fucking mental.  The end of the pendulum.


God, I hope so.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Razgovory

Quote from: Oexmelin on December 10, 2017, 06:26:33 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 10, 2017, 12:10:21 PM
Dude, this isn't a pendulum.  This is a 4G tailspin blackout.  There's no epiphanic "coming to their senses" scene.  There are no happy endings here.

A thousand times this. The hardest point to convey to students, in US history, is that there is no magic system that keeps everything right and proper, in wait for the automatic recentering that will inevitably happen once people simply reveal the good that was buried in there all along. Even RBG on the Supreme Court recently used hat vocabulary of the magic pendulum - it's mind boggling.


What's hat vocabulary?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

mongers

Quote from: Razgovory on December 10, 2017, 08:20:48 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 10, 2017, 06:26:33 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 10, 2017, 12:10:21 PM
Dude, this isn't a pendulum.  This is a 4G tailspin blackout.  There's no epiphanic "coming to their senses" scene.  There are no happy endings here.

A thousand times this. The hardest point to convey to students, in US history, is that there is no magic system that keeps everything right and proper, in wait for the automatic recentering that will inevitably happen once people simply reveal the good that was buried in there all along. Even RBG on the Supreme Court recently used hat vocabulary of the magic pendulum - it's mind boggling.


What's hat vocabulary?

Off the top of my head, it's a bald claim.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

DGuller

Quote from: Oexmelin on December 10, 2017, 06:26:33 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 10, 2017, 12:10:21 PM
Dude, this isn't a pendulum.  This is a 4G tailspin blackout.  There's no epiphanic "coming to their senses" scene.  There are no happy endings here.

A thousand times this. The hardest point to convey to students, in US history, is that there is no magic system that keeps everything right and proper, in wait for the automatic recentering that will inevitably happen once people simply reveal the good that was buried in there all along. Even RBG on the Supreme Court recently used hat vocabulary of the magic pendulum - it's mind boggling.
Could be as simple as survivorship bias.  Our democracy has weathered all political maladies before, therefore there must be some magical force behind it.  Maybe we've just been lucky with our prior rounds of playing Russian roulette with democracy, and confused luck with skill.

What's sad is that this myth in magic pendulum actually does influence people's behavior.  I've heard someone actually justify supporting Trump by going:  "Come on, American system is too strong to let someone like Trump turn it into a dictatorship, but he says things that need to be said."  Obviously pointing out that this system relies on voters not voting in openly authoritarian politicians would be futile.

alfred russel

Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 10, 2017, 07:04:14 PM
Look, in math it simply means non parrallel lines, but it's use in everday conversation is not the same. It implies a greater deviation, and often bias as well.

Relative to the population at large, the wealthy are biased toward republicans and the poor toward democrats. The exit polls you posted show that!

Had the top 1/3 of the wealth in the country voted like the bottom 1/3, the polling indicates we would have a president clinton right now. Had the bottom 1/3 voted like the top 1/3, Trump would be bragging about a big popular vote win as well.

So the differences are not only reflective of the biases of the income groups, but those biases were decisive in the election.

If you want to trivialize decisive differences as not big enough to warrant the word "skew"...

They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

jimmy olsen

Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 09:06:20 PM

Relative to the population at large, the wealthy are biased toward republicans and the poor toward democrats. The exit polls you posted show that!


That's not what I meant by bias. If someone says the test/poll results were skewed, they mean someone put there thumb on the scale to change the result.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Razgovory

Seems Roy Moore has a problem with every amendment of the US Constitution after the 10th.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

alfred russel

Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 10, 2017, 10:08:19 PM
If someone says the test/poll results were skewed, they mean someone put there thumb on the scale to change the result.

You are an idiot. There is no point to a discussion with you, because you are just dumb.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Razgovory

Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2017, 10:48:15 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 10, 2017, 10:08:19 PM
If someone says the test/poll results were skewed, they mean someone put there thumb on the scale to change the result.

You are an idiot. There is no point to a discussion with you, because you are just dumb.


You can talk to me.  I'm also an idiot, but not quite as dumb.  What's Hat Vocabulary?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017