What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm saying they responded to inflation by ratchetting up wage demands, which prevented the labor market from clearing, and which then led the Fed to increase money supply in an effort to sustain full employment. Rinse and repeat.  Nor am I saying unions were the only ones responding to inflation in this way.  But they did possess more power than non-unionized labor to impose their wishes.

As for your last comment: of course.  Pent-up demand, booming economy, no foreign competition.

Assuming that framework of analysis applies, the problem in the 70s was not the unions per se, it was that the disruption of inflationary expectations caused coordination problems across the entire economy. I.e. if you have no clear idea what nominal wage increase will deliver the desired market clearing real wage, it's no big surprise if you get it wrong.

[Admiral Yi]

Assuming that framework of analysis applies, the problem in the 70s was not the unions per se, it was that the disruption of inflationary expectations caused coordination problems across the entire economy. I.e. if you have no clear idea what nominal wage increase will deliver the desired market clearing real wage, it's no big surprise if you get it wrong.

You seem to be implying that nominal wage increases were constant between unionized and nonunionized labor markets in the 70s.  Are you? Perhaps an assumption on my part that they weren't.

You also seem to be implying that the end goal of wage negotiators at this time was the market clearing real wage, which doesn't match at all what I've read, that they were aiming for constant real increases.

[The Minsky Moment]

You seem to be implying that nominal wage increases were constant between unionized and nonunionized labor markets in the 70s.  Are you? Perhaps an assumption on my part that they weren't.

You also seem to be implying that the end goal of wage negotiators at this time was the market clearing real wage, which doesn't match at all what I've read, that they were aiming for constant real increases.

1) I don't think I'm making an assumption about relative wage increases and I don't know what the data shows.

2) Wage negotiators on either side are never targeting market clearing real wages economy wide - the German system comes closest to attempting something like this, the US never did.  My point is simply that while labor negotiators bargain in nominal terms they ultimate target real purchasing power.  When price expectations are stable there is a natural tendency for negotiations to center around nominal income growth.  From labor's perspective it allows workers to preserve purchasing power and share in overall growth.  From management perspective, they can afford to meet the wage demand as long as their business is also growing in kind. 

When price expectations become unmoored, workers become uncertain about the purchasing power of wages, and there is a natural tendency to drive up nominal demands out of precaution.  Management may be willing to accept such demands, because they think that in a regime of price uncertainty, with the trend going upwards, they can pass off the rises with price increases.  The general point is that uncertainty about prices makes it much more difficult to reach consensus on a wage demand that is also likely to be close to market clearing, and where the uncertainty is driven by an upward trend, that bias is likely to be inflationary not deflationary.

[The Minsky Moment]

"People have to be careful because at some point I fight back," Mr Trump told a Washington radio station on Tuesday.
On Monday, the senator deplored "half-baked, spurious nationalism" in a perceived slight at Mr Trump's so-called America First policy.
A former prisoner of war, Mr McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer in July.
"I'm being very, very nice but at some point I fight back and it won't be pretty," Mr Trump told WMAL on Tuesday in response to a question about the senator's remarks.

Today:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Thursday it might require a subpoena to get more information about a deadly ambush in Niger . . .
Asked by The Hill whether the administration has been forthcoming on information on Niger, McCain said "no."
"I had a better working relationship, as far as information back and forth, with Ash Carter than I do with an old friend of 20 years," McCain added, referring to former President Obama's last Defense secretary.

Johnny H. 1, The Orange Horror 0

[crazy canuck]

"People have to be careful because at some point I fight back," Mr Trump told a Washington radio station on Tuesday.
On Monday, the senator deplored "half-baked, spurious nationalism" in a perceived slight at Mr Trump's so-called America First policy.
A former prisoner of war, Mr McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer in July.
"I'm being very, very nice but at some point I fight back and it won't be pretty," Mr Trump told WMAL on Tuesday in response to a question about the senator's remarks.

Today:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Thursday it might require a subpoena to get more information about a deadly ambush in Niger . . .
Asked by The Hill whether the administration has been forthcoming on information on Niger, McCain said "no."
"I had a better working relationship, as far as information back and forth, with Ash Carter than I do with an old friend of 20 years," McCain added, referring to former President Obama's last Defense secretary.

Johnny H. 1, The Orange Horror 0

Only 1 point?!  This isn't the CFL where you get points for punting into the end zone.  That was worth at least a converted touchdown.

[grumbler]

The relationship between US Unions and management was always extremely adversarial and hostile...or at least that is the reputation. In Germany both sides seem to get along better.

I don't think it is quite as universally adversarial in the US as you state, but the gist of your answer is correct.  In the US, labor and management generally seemed to think they could destroy the other and still save the business.  In Germany, by law, they are partners in any large enterprise.

[CountDeMoney]

This is why This Shit Will Never End.  The bubble is bulletproof.

Poll: 46 percent think media make up stories about Trump
But voters diverge from the president on whether the federal government should be able to punish news organizations that he believes make up stories about him.
By STEVEN SHEPARD
10/18/2017 05:56 AM EDT

Nearly half of voters, 46 percent, believe the news media fabricate news stories about President Donald Trump and his administration, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Just 37 percent of voters think the media do not fabricate stories, the poll shows, while the remaining 17 percent are undecided.

More than three-quarters of Republican voters, 76 percent, think the news media invent stories about Trump and his administration, compared with only 11 percent who don't think so. Among Democrats, one-in-five think the media make up stories, but a 65 percent majority think they do not. Forty-four percent of independent voters think the media make up stories about Trump, and 31 percent think they do not.

Among the voters who strongly approve of Trump's job performance in the poll, 85 percent believe the media fabricate stories about the president and his administration.

Trump last week accused NBC News of concocting a report that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had called Trump a "moron" and threatened to resign earlier this year. (Tillerson denies he intended to quit but has not personally disavowed the "moron" allegation.) After NBC reported that Tillerson's comments came after a meeting in which Trump suggested a broad increase in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, Trump called it "[p]ure fiction, made up to demean" him.

Throughout his young presidency — and during his campaign, as well — Trump has attacked media organizations that air or publish coverage critical of him and people in his orbit. On Tuesday, after the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll had left the field, Trump told a radio interviewer he thought news coverage of his administration would be more favorable.

"Actually, dishonesty in the media is one of the things that surprised me the most," the president told radio host Chris Plante. "I thought after I won, the media would become much more stable and much more honest. They've gone crazy. CNN is a joke. NBC is a total joke. You watch what they report, it bears no relationship to what I'm doing. But the media is absolutely dishonest — and frankly, I've never seen anything quite like it."

Later in the day he hammered home the point via his favored medium. "So much Fake News being put in dying magazines and newspapers," Trump tweeted. "Only place worse may be @NBCNews, @CBSNews, @ABC and @CNN. Fiction writers!"

But voters diverge from the president on whether the federal government should be able to punish news organizations that he believes make up stories about him. Trump last week suggested the government could revoke NBC's broadcast licenses.

Only 28 percent think the government should have the power to revoke broadcast licenses of major news organizations that it says are fabricating news stories about a president or the administration, while 51 percent think the government should not be able to do that. Another 21 percent are undecided.

Voters are split along party lines on this question, too. More than two-thirds of Democrats, 68 percent, think the federal government should not have the power to revoke broadcast licenses of those organizations. But more Republicans, 46 percent, think the government should have that power than the third of GOP voters who don't think so.

"Voters, particularly Trump supporters, have become disenchanted with the national media," said Kyle Dropp, chief research officer and co-founder of Morning Consult. "Even 20 percent of Democrats think that the national media fabricate stories on President Trump and his administration. That being said, many are still not willing to let the federal government censor the media."

Overall, Trump's job-approval rating sits at 44 percent in the new survey, up slightly from 42 percent last week. A 51 percent majority disapproves of Trump's job performance, down a tick from 53 percent last week.

The poll also surveyed voters on Trump's relationship with congressional Republicans — an affiliation ruptured in recent weeks after public spats with Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.). GOP voters mostly take Trump's side: Majorities say the president is more in touch with the American people than congressional Republicans and better aligned with their own principles by identical, 33-point margins, 58 percent to 25 percent.

GOP voters generally downplay the extent of the rift. Asked whether Republicans in Congress support Trump, 51 percent of GOP voters say they do, and 35 percent say they do not. Similarly, 53 percent of GOP voters think Republicans in Congress support Trump's legislative agenda, compared with 32 percent who think they don't.

The poll was conducted October 12-16, surveying 1,991 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

[Valmy]

Yeah his supporters have absolute faith in his leadership and they make up a huge percentage of the electorate. So this is what they elected him to do and what they want. Well that is how our Constitution works I guess. Let them have their turn.

[CountDeMoney]

Well that is how our Constitution works I guess. Let them have their turn.

But does it have to be sudden death rules? 

[CountDeMoney]

Excellent example of the classic Trump finishing combo--

This was an avalanche of mistakes that Trump created, mistakes that compounded mistakes.

The first mistake was that Trump didn't acknowledge the soldiers' deaths at the outset. Why he didn't do so isn't clear. As David Graham pointed out at the Atlantic, the White House said on the day after the attack that the administration was "continuing to review and look into this," implying that there was still some uncertainty. But the soldiers' bodies soon returned to the United States; Trump could certainly have at that point mourned their passing.

The second mistake was compounding that inaction by trying to insist that he was doing more than what was expected of a president. It's the classic excuse of the kid who didn't do his report so he asks for more time because, instead of a report, he's doing a full diorama. But in this case, it was Trump saying that no one had ever done a diorama before, in front of a national audience that had seen a lot of dioramas. 

The third mistake was in trying to defend that claim by dragging another personal tragedy into the debate to serve as his witness: the death of Kelly's son. The move didn't prove his case and, instead, forced Kelly into a fray that he has long sought to avoid.

The fourth mistake was claiming that he'd regularly made those calls in the past, raising the natural question of whether he had. Before Monday, a president not calling every family that had sacrificed a loved one to the country wasn't newsworthy. Trump made it newsworthy.

The fifth mistake was compounding the new attention he'd drawn to those calls by apparently saying something that was interpreted by members of the family as disrespectful. Presidents' outreach to the families of soldiers killed in combat has often traditionally been private, as staff members for those presidents noted after Trump's news conference comments. By making those calls a public issue, Trump raised the bar he'd need to exceed to have them go well. It seems they didn't.

This is what Trump does.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/10/18/yet-again-trumps-defensiveness-makes-his-handling-of-a-gold-star-familys-grief-worse/

[Admiral Yi]

This is why This Shit Will Never End.  The bubble is bulletproof.

It's a terrible survey question.  I'm sure there's at least one fake Trump story out there.  I think someone linked in this thread about a major media outlet running a retraction.

[CountDeMoney]

This is why This Shit Will Never End.  The bubble is bulletproof.

It's a terrible survey question.  I'm sure there's at least one fake Trump story out there.  I think someone linked in this thread about a major media outlet running a retraction.

Do the Dumbfuckistanis consider Fox News as "national media" yet, considering they're routinely #1 in the ratings as the mainstreamiest of the mainstream media? Or do they not count?

[dps]

I don't trust the media, but while I do think that much of the media is biased (often unconsciously), I think the real problem with them is incompetence, not bias.

[jimmy olsen]

This is why This Shit Will Never End.  The bubble is bulletproof.

It's a terrible survey question.  I'm sure there's at least one fake Trump story out there.  I think someone linked in this thread about a major media outlet running a retraction.

Do the Dumbfuckistanis consider Fox News as "national media" yet, considering they're routinely #1 in the ratings as the mainstreamiest of the mainstream media? Or do they not count?

Actually they have fallen out of the top spot.

[Eddie Teach]

Who is on top, RT?