What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[celedhring]

Yeah, he was surely delighted when Trump killed TPP.

not so much that, more the gung ho rah rah anti-china

Funnily the one campaign promise which he has yet to deliver in this first week of shock and fury. He's bullied Mexico, about to ban muslim immigration, appointed an anti-EU ambassador to the EU... But China? So far it's made them a huge favor by killing TPP. I'm pretty sure they can live with that level of antagonism.

[CountDeMoney]

Yeah, he was surely delighted when Trump killed TPP.

not so much that, more the gung ho rah rah anti-china

Really? Is that what's coming out of Tokyo these days: "gung ho rah rah anti-china?"

[The Minsky Moment]

America fucked with them first. They are/were our closest allies. But we will teach a powerful lesson to any nation stupid enough to ally and depend on us.

if germany wants to try another relationship out and see how it works in the long term, that's fine. let the alliance between the democratic germany and authoritarian china flourish.

Why not?  Republican France and Tsarist Russia formed a strong alliance.  Go all in on cold realpolitik and there is no reason why such an alliance can't work.  PRC and Germany already have strong commercial ties, the Chinese have great respect for German engineering and manufacturing. There is no geopolitical zone of conflict.  It actually make quite a bit of sense in terms of traditional power politics and commercial interest . . . The EU and the PRC also share a common hostility to the dominance of US tech firms.  Keep on this track and a EU-PRC commercial deal is possible that leaves Silicon Valley out in the cold.  There's plenty of scenarios here where the US gets hurt if Trump is allowed to proceed untrammeled.

[Valmy]

were you expecting trump to lead the nation into an era of greatness? this nation elected him, and it'll survive the next four years. you said something about hard times coming ahead -- I implied there weren't going to be "hard times" for the average decently-well-off american

Ok please tell me where I implied the nation was about to be destroyed or where I said the nation did not elect him. I do not appreciate you bringing in this irrelevant shit to distract from the discussion at hand. It feels just a tad manipulative and like moving the goal posts.

And I strongly disagree with the last part. But we will see who is right in four years time.

Granted I still hold out hope that most of this bullshit will be checked by Congress.

[The Larch]

Apparently the supply of guacamole in time for the Super Bowl is at risk. 

Holy guacamole! could slam Mexican avocados

If President Trump can push through a border tax, those Super Bowl parties may become a little less festive.

That's because one of the Mexican imports that many Americans buy the most is avocados. As recently as 2014, Mexico accounted for 60% of the avocados in the U.S., Avocados From Mexico, a trade and promotion association, reports.

Avocados From Mexico says it is filling a gap in demand that U.S. growers would not be able to handle. Mexico's climate allows growing year-round.

It says avocado imports contributed $2.2 billion to the U.S. gross domestic product in 2015, $1.2 billion in labor income, $594 million in taxes and 19,000 jobs to American workers, citing a University of Texas study.

"Avocados imported from Mexico has allowed consumers the accessibility and affordability to make avocados part of their daily meals.  As the leading avocado brand, we remain confident that the trade policy between our two governments will continue to support U.S. consumers' growing love of avocados," Avocados From Mexico said in a statement.

The Haas Avocado Board, which tracks shipments of one most popular varieties, expects to see imports of 400.9 million pounds of Mexican avocados this year, compared to 24.9 million from California, one of the largest producing states.

Clearly, a lot of guacamole is at stake with any border tax move.

It hasn't been an easy run lately, however. Avocado prices spiked late last year. And now comes the prospects of a 20% tax, which was lighting up Twitter on Thursday night.

[LaCroix]

Really? Is that what's coming out of Tokyo these days: "gung ho rah rah anti-china?"

abe is fairly nationalistic. he wants to amend the japanese constitution to allow it to have a military, and he really hates china

[LaCroix]

were you expecting trump to lead the nation into an era of greatness? this nation elected him, and it'll survive the next four years. you said something about hard times coming ahead -- I implied there weren't going to be "hard times" for the average decently-well-off american

Ok please tell me where I implied the nation was about to be destroyed or where I said the nation did not elect him. I do not appreciate you bringing in this irrelevant shit to distract from the discussion at hand. It feels just a tad manipulative and like moving the goal posts.

And I strongly disagree with the last part. But we will see who is right in four years time.

Granted I still hold out hope that most of this bullshit will be checked by Congress.

my mistake, misread your "And a huge asteroid might destroy the earth."

[LaCroix]

Why not?  Republican France and Tsarist Russia formed a strong alliance.  Go all in on cold realpolitik and there is no reason why such an alliance can't work.  PRC and Germany already have strong commercial ties, the Chinese have great respect for German engineering and manufacturing. There is no geopolitical zone of conflict.  It actually make quite a bit of sense in terms of traditional power politics and commercial interest . . . The EU and the PRC also share a common hostility to the dominance of US tech firms.  Keep on this track and a EU-PRC commercial deal is possible that leaves Silicon Valley out in the cold.  There's plenty of scenarios here where the US gets hurt if Trump is allowed to proceed untrammeled.

france was completely isolated at that time. plus, the world is a much different place now than the late 1890s/early 1900s -- citizens of a democratic nation have different expectations. just look at US population's reaction to the idea of allying russia.

I'm assuming there's a reason beyond mere tradition why germany has stuck with the US and not already turned 100% toward china

[LaCroix]

Funnily the one campaign promise which he has yet to deliver in this first week of shock and fury. He's bullied Mexico, about to ban muslim immigration, appointed an anti-EU ambassador to the EU... But China? So far it's made them a huge favor by killing TPP. I'm pretty sure they can live with that level of antagonism.

he spoke with taiwan.. (+ I think there was a public comment or two that was anti-china around that time)

plus, it's only day seven, dude.

[Zanza]

Really? Is that what's coming out of Tokyo these days: "gung ho rah rah anti-china?"

abe is fairly nationalistic. he wants to amend the japanese constitution to allow it to have a military, and he really hates china

Trade is about economic interests, not about personal feelings.

BEIJING, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- Delegates from China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) discussed goods and services trade and investment as they met in Beijing on Wednesday for the 11th round of trilateral free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations.

Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen led the Chinese delegation, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

Since their launch in November 2012, China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Agreement negotiations have been carried out.

The three parties agreed that the establishment of a trilateral FTA will help give full play to their advantages, unleash the economic vitality of the three countries and boost regional prosperity and development.

In November 2015, leaders from the three nations reiterated in a joint statement that they should accelerate the FTA negotiations.

China is the largest trading partner of Japan and the ROK. The three countries, whose combined GDP accounts for around 20 percent of that of the whole world, would constitute one of the three largest economic blocs, along with the European Union and North America, both of which already have FTAs among themselves.

[The Minsky Moment]

International systems are easier to destroy than build.  I wouldn't underestimate the amount of damage that someone like Trump could due in 4 (or 8!) years especially if allowed to operate unchecked. 

[Valmy]

"And a huge asteroid might destroy the earth."

Which was another response to your bizarre segues and non-sequitors which you continually throw up, which you then twisted around and intentionally distorted in order to justify more smokescreens.

france was completely isolated at that time. plus, the world is a much different place now than the late 1890s/early 1900s -- citizens of a democratic nation have different expectations. just look at US population's reaction to the idea of allying russia.

We are friendly with many autocratic nations. People do not like Russia because of what they have done and what they are doing geo-politically. We would have been fine, and in fact attempted to forge, an alliance with Putin. And it seemed far more shocking in the 1890s that France and Russia would be allies than if Obama and Putin had come to some sort of agreement during the infamous 'reset button' or between Bush and Putin after Bush 'looked into his soul' so I see no evidence to support this assertion.

I'm assuming there's a reason beyond mere tradition why germany has stuck with the US and not already turned 100% toward china

The reason is reality. They have been part of an international system since 1955. One the US needs to support, not undermine.

[The Minsky Moment]

france was completely isolated at that time. plus, the world is a much different place now than the late 1890s/early 1900s -- citizens of a democratic nation have different expectations.

With UK leaving the EU, Italy in shambles, and France a long-term frenemy it's starting to seem a bit lonely for Germany as well.

just look at US population's reaction to the idea of allying russia.

The US has often been aligned with authoritarian states; it is now.  The objection to Russia is less their suppression of Pussy Riot and more there invading other countries.

\

[grumbler]

That would force an alliance between the US, UK, and Russia. It has been a while, but that worked out well in the early 40s.

In the 1940s, each of those had something the others needed.  That's precisely not the case today.

[grumbler]

Banned countries include:

- Lybia.
- Sudan.
- Somalia.
- Yemen.
- Syria.
- Iraq.
- Iran.

Allowed countries where Trump does business:

- Turkey.
- Egypt.
- Saudi Arabia.
- United Arab Emirates.

I'm not defending Trump's massive conflicts of interest, but the 7 banned are, imo, in much worse shape than the allowed 4. If you gave me the list of 11 countries and told I needed to ban immigration from 7 of them, I'd pick the banned seven every time.

I'd certainly ban Egypt before Iran, but I otherwise agree with you.