What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

There is a reminder on the ticket that "official Donald J Trump for President Gear is ONLY available inside the venue".  So I guess I better not buy the knockoff crap outside the arena.

Yeah, don't get fooled with Chinese knockoffs of stuff made in China.

Does not exist anymore.  Post-election the Trump trademark is one the few US marks that can count on the full protection of the PRC.  Pay for play wins again!

[Admiral Yi]

What Bernie is talking about in that article is basically capital controls.

[Zanza]

There is a reminder on the ticket that "official Donald J Trump for President Gear is ONLY available inside the venue".  So I guess I better not buy the knockoff crap outside the arena.

Yeah, don't get fooled with Chinese knockoffs of stuff made in China.

Does not exist anymore.  Post-election the Trump trademark is one the few US marks that can count on the full protection of the PRC.  Pay for play wins again!

Are you already tired of winning so much or what? 

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah, I agree it's possible the Democrats could just change nothing, maybe get more leftist, and just wait for the browns to take over a few big Southern states.

Well they went more conservative and triangulated and then got clobbered by the being the party that made evil capitalism take all the rust belt jobs.

Stickland and Feingold went more populist left in Ohio and Wisconsin and did even worse then HRC.  You could point to their baggage but it's not like that wasn't a problem for HRC as well.  There is also the fact that Obama's personal popularity ratings remain high, even though he is the epitome on an establishment, globalist, moderate Democrat.

Focusing just on 2016 it's not 100% clear what happened.  But best guess is that the Democrats as a party became (fairly or unfairly) seen as the party of government at a time when people were in a throw the bums out mood.

That's not to say there isn't a structural problem for the party - there is.  For many years they have taken their eyes off the ball at the state level and it has reached crisis proportions.  The same effort, energy and intensity the party brings to GOTV in Presidential election years needs to be harnassed and mobilized more consistently at the grass roots state level.  That means e.g. converting berniebroistic sloganeering into mundane hard work getting good candidates to run for county treasurer and state rep and then getting people to the polls for those elections.  And it also means following Otto's advice of matching candidates better to locations and expanding the tent to accomodate that ideological diversity. 

[garbon]

Focusing just on 2016 it's not 100% clear what happened.  But best guess is that the Democrats as a party became (fairly or unfairly) seen as the party of government at a time when people were in a throw the bums out mood.

How's that so? Looks like most bums got to keep their warm seats in congress.

[The Minsky Moment]

What Bernie is talking about in that article is basically capital controls.

Hmm it looks like a grabbag of different measures and sanctions that doesn't add up to any coherent policy, other than doing mean stuff to corps when they do stuff we don't like.

As policy it doesn't make a ton of sense, but as politics - it highlights the fact that Trump ran as the tough guy populist who would take the stick to the fat cats if they didn't toe the America First line.  Now it's all carrot, no stick - instead of populist Trump, we have old-fashioned Chamber of Commerce corporatism. 

Part of a pattern.  The voters went for Populist Trump but so far it looks like they are getting Scott Walker with a loud mouth and an uncontrolled twitter account.

[Valmy]

That's not to say there isn't a structural problem for the party - there is.  For many years they have taken their eyes off the ball at the state level and it has reached crisis proportions.  The same effort, energy and intensity the party brings to GOTV in Presidential election years needs to be harnassed and mobilized more consistently at the grass roots state level.  That means e.g. converting berniebroistic sloganeering into mundane hard work getting good candidates to run for county treasurer and state rep and then getting people to the polls for those elections.  And it also means following Otto's advice of matching candidates better to locations and expanding the tent to accomodate that ideological diversity. 

Hey I would love to be wrong.

What ever happened to Howard Dean's 50 state strategy?

[Admiral Yi]

Hmm it looks like a grabbag of different measures and sanctions that doesn't add up to any coherent policy, other than doing mean stuff to corps when they do stuff we don't like.

As policy it doesn't make a ton of sense, but as politics - it highlights the fact that Trump ran as the tough guy populist who would take the stick to the fat cats if they didn't toe the America First line.  Now it's all carrot, no stick - instead of populist Trump, we have old-fashioned Chamber of Commerce corporatism. 

Part of a pattern.  The voters went for Populist Trump but so far it looks like they are getting Scott Walker with a loud mouth and an uncontrolled twitter account.

It looks like a policy designed exactly to drop outsourcing to zero.

[grumbler]

So, if a company wants to outsource, it should just claim it wants to outsource twice as many jobs as it wants to.

Carrier:  (we want to send 1,00 jobs to Mexico) We will send 2,000 jobs to Mexico.

Trump:  I R OUTRAGE!  Take $7 million dollars to keep half those jobs in the US, or else!

Carrier: (pretends to cower in fear)  Okay, we give in!  We will only send 1,000 jobs to Mexico.

Trump:  I WIN!  BIGLY!

[derspiess]

Mattis!!

[CountDeMoney]

Trump:  I WIN!  BIGLY!

More like Trump: I didn't think they would take me literally.

[The Brain]

According to a major Swedish newspaper Trump literally crushed the GOP opposition. I don't think they'd lie.

[frunk]

According to a major Swedish newspaper Trump literally crushed the GOP opposition. I don't think they'd lie.

He's big, but he's not Christie big.

[viper37]

Hmm it looks like a grabbag of different measures and sanctions that doesn't add up to any coherent policy, other than doing mean stuff to corps when they do stuff we don't like.

As policy it doesn't make a ton of sense, but as politics - it highlights the fact that Trump ran as the tough guy populist who would take the stick to the fat cats if they didn't toe the America First line.  Now it's all carrot, no stick - instead of populist Trump, we have old-fashioned Chamber of Commerce corporatism. 

Part of a pattern.  The voters went for Populist Trump but so far it looks like they are getting Scott Walker with a loud mouth and an uncontrolled twitter account.

It looks like a policy designed exactly to drop outsourcing to zero.

Quebec has had that policy for years.  Give a tax break here, give a break on wage taxes there.  Give a few million $ grant over there.  Make it a state sponsored financing to reduce the borrowing costs over here and take the bill once the non viable project doesn't live to the government hype (see Gaspésia, Cimment McInnis and Davie Shipbuilding, amongst others).

So far, it hasn't done any miracles.  Bombardier was given free money, more than once.  It was given a private contract with no competition to build trains for the Montreal metro.  They still outsource to Mexico and China.  The automotive industry has received a fuckton of money and tax incentives over the years.  Packard closed up shop.  So did Hyunday.  GM, Ford & Chrysler still outsource to everywhere they have plants in the world. 

Just this morning, I saw a Kraft* plant in Montreal closing up shop.  They'll make their cookies and chocolate bars out of the US now, with their existing plants.  Shrinking demand and lack of productivity are raised as reasons for the outsourcing. 

The biotech industry has received a fuckton of money from the Federal.  Then a fuckton of money from the Provincial government.  Then an extension on their patterns.  Then a fuckton of money from the Provincial government.  The drugs we use are mostly made elsewhere in the world.  The biotech industry is but a shadow of what it was in the 90s.  Yet, they had money.  Regulations were amended, tax breaks were given.  It didn't go to the US or Mexico, despite NAFTA.  It went to eastern Europe and to Asia with whom we have no trade deals yet.

Westinghouse closed its plant in Montreal, after receiving a fuckton of money and tax breaks from the provincial government. They move to Tennesse when the government and the city gave them twice the fuckton of money they previously got.  The guys in Tennesse are paid much less than those in Montreal and they give comparable production.

Once upon a time, Bernard Landry was the Prime Minister of Quebec (2000-2003).  Before that, he was Finance minister (1995-2000).  He devised a strategy where we would give financial incentives to foreign corporations so they would build a manufacturing base here, in Quebec.  There was massive intervention in the economy by the government, all the while they were trying to achived a zero deficit policy. It seemed to work for a while.  1998 was a very good year, lots of private investments all accross the province.  A few years later, none of these projects are here anymore.  The money we "invested" is gone.  The Société Générale de Financement (SGF), Landry's creature lost close fo half a billion $ in one year only, and close to 1/4 billion$ for the 5 next years.  Eventually it was merged with Investissement Québec and it's priorities had to change.

Lots of Southern US States, the same people who so vehemently abor socialism, give tax breaks and grants to businesses so they stay/move over there.  Doesn't seem to work much in the long term.

Bottom line is, this strategy only seem to work for a little while.  You get a short term boost in business activity.  Big corporations open up a plant or maintain jobs long enough to cash in on the tax breaks.  Worst case scenario, it costs them nothing.  Best case scenario, they make more money for a little while.  Then they close the shop and move back to wherever they were before.


*Parent company of which I actually forgot the name.

[Admiral Yi]

That's not what Bernie is proposing veep.  He's talking about fining companies that outsource, not giving them free money to stay.