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What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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Siege

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2016, 05:38:18 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 12:39:27 PM
Technological singularity.
This is the end game.
Free market capitalism, small government and our constitutional freedoms. This is the only way to accelerate the arrival of the singularity.

Trump wants to go after Amazon, Apple, Tesla, basically everyone in the Valley is screwed.  The  H2b visa will be gone and there will be a giant sucking sound of talent out of America.  But it's a great time be in business in America if you dig for coal, drill oil.  Also finance because Dodd frank is going Dodo Frank.  Trump will make us poised to dominate the economy of the late 19th century.  WTF do you think MAGA means?

After 8 years America will be the new Russia- an uncompetitive economy dominated by natural resource extraction and financial oligarchs

Your singularity will come but you'll need to move to Berlin for it.



Fuck that.
I aint gonna go to Berlin not even for the singularity.
I cannot let Zanza put a yellow star on my ass.


"All men are created equal, then some become infantry."

"Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't."

"Laissez faire et laissez passer, le monde va de lui même!"


Siege

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2016, 05:48:03 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 12:45:08 PM
My own shit is victory. 60% of the juddencrapp voted for the Trumpminator. This is waaaaay higher than expected.

Funniest part:
-"Hey Jonathan, are you voting for Trump or Hillary?"
-"David, there is no way Im voting for that nazi racist Trump. I am for Hillary all the way".
- "Awesome. Me too."

Next day, Jonathan goes to and votes for Trump. David does too.

Nice job you and your friends just put the guy who provides the media platform for the Daily stormer right into the heart of White House.

Hey but the trains might run on time, right?

Seedys crude but right - you need to get a clue about what it means to be a Diaspora Jew and fast.

I know what a diaspora jew is.
Afraid of his own shadow, betting against Israel so he is accepted, denying our right to exist.

No thank you very much.
I am a jew with gunz and loads of cornz.


"All men are created equal, then some become infantry."

"Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't."

"Laissez faire et laissez passer, le monde va de lui même!"


OttoVonBismarck

Quote from: dps on November 12, 2016, 11:09:52 AM
Just to clarify, are you suggesting that the Democrats should go full-on protectionist to defeat Trump merely as a political strategy, or are you saying the Democrats becoming protectionist is worth it to defeat Trump, or are you actually protectionist yourself?

I mean I support free trade as an economic principle; I opposed Trump early on because he was a buffoon, but also because he was advocating very simplistic, damaging protectionist policies. I think the way this is implemented by Trump, if it is implemented, will be very damaging to the U.S. economy.

So that being said, I thought Hillary was going to win this election in a walk. To be honest, any one thing she did better, she probably wins. Spending more time in the industrial Midwestern "blue wall" states, she probably wins. Addressing the email scandal 1.5 years ago when it first came up, and aggressively, she probably wins. Spoke more about economic plans in her debates and ads, she probably wins. Makes Bernie Sanders her running mate, she probably wins. Stays out of places like Arizona, Georgia, spends less money in Florida (which she wanted to win, but she could've won without it), and focuses more on putting mortar in the wall, she probably wins.

But all that being said, she was set to win an election, probably lose the Senate, and certainly the House would stay in Republican hands. They were gearing up to potentially refuse to nominate a Supreme Court justice for her entire Presidency. She was, like Obama, probably going to have debt ceiling fights, have to veto Obamacare repeals, budget shutdowns, and she'd be ruling through executive order, lawsuits, and regulatory actions for four years, maybe longer. The way it's going now it's hard to imagine the House or even the Senate turning blue. So I've keyed in not necessarily the reason Hillary lost the election--she lost the election for a dozen reasons and would've won if she had gone a different way on almost any of them, but rather the reason the Democratic party is not set up to be competitive nationally for a long time. I think it's the blue collar whites, without the blue collar whites the "demographic" advantage, that the Democrats have been crowing about for years is still probably 20 years off from making them easy winners in the House if they keep their current policy positions.

So to get back to the point--I think that the Democratic party, and probably the Republican party, need to seriously figure out some mechanism to handle the disruptions of globalization before we jump into any more free trade deals. The results of this election have convinced me that I've frankly taken an elitist, and tone deaf view toward trade. Trade hasn't affected me personally, and I've just looked at the macro numbers. We have more jobs, higher wages, middling to decent GDP growth etc. What I ignored is there are pockets, big pockets, of our country where people, especially men, without college degrees have seen either complete wage stagnation or even real wage decreases since the 1970s. There's a statistic out there that I never knew until this election, that since 1975 or so, up to 2014, the wages for white men without college degrees actually decreased 20%.

The Democrats are supposed to be the party of fucking labor, and they have signed several major trade deals and were negotiating one right now that may satisfy my personal economic desires, but they were doing it without doing anything to meaningfully help blue collar workers survive this transition. Obviously even European countries are struggling, but we have a much worse labor safety net than any country in Europe, and we've been going full steam ahead with free trade. It's pretty hard in some Euro countries to just shut a factory down and move it to some third world country. I have some spitball ideas on things we could do to try and protect labor while allowing free trade, but I'm not going to pretend I have the answers--but guys like Bernie Sanders have recognized there's a lot of anger here and people that speak to this issue are going to win these votes, the Democrats haven't spoken to this issue at all in 2016, at least the establishment Dems.

To be honest the Democrats could well see me switch parties if they were able to answer this issue with something smarter than 45% tariffs on China and Mexico.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 07:18:26 PM
Fuck that.
I aint gonna go to Berlin not even for the singularity.
I cannot let Zanza put a yellow star on my ass.

It's like RAI-AI-YAIHN
On your wedding day
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Razgovory

Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 07:18:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2016, 05:38:18 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 12:39:27 PM
Technological singularity.
This is the end game.
Free market capitalism, small government and our constitutional freedoms. This is the only way to accelerate the arrival of the singularity.

Trump wants to go after Amazon, Apple, Tesla, basically everyone in the Valley is screwed.  The  H2b visa will be gone and there will be a giant sucking sound of talent out of America.  But it's a great time be in business in America if you dig for coal, drill oil.  Also finance because Dodd frank is going Dodo Frank.  Trump will make us poised to dominate the economy of the late 19th century.  WTF do you think MAGA means?

After 8 years America will be the new Russia- an uncompetitive economy dominated by natural resource extraction and financial oligarchs

Your singularity will come but you'll need to move to Berlin for it.



Fuck that.
I aint gonna go to Berlin not even for the singularity.
I cannot let Zanza put a yellow star on my ass.

But you'll let Trump do so.  Take a good look at what I linked.  Do it.  It's important that you see.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 07:24:10 PM
I know what a diaspora jew is.
Afraid of his own shadow, betting against Israel so he is accepted, denying our right to exist.

No thank you very much

It's about knowing your ass from your elbow
Or in this case your Buchanan from your Reagan
Look up the origins of "America First"

Tough ass warrior but with your IFF rigged backwards. 
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Eddie Teach

Quote from: Razgovory on November 13, 2016, 07:44:09 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 07:18:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2016, 05:38:18 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 13, 2016, 12:39:27 PM
Technological singularity.
This is the end game.
Free market capitalism, small government and our constitutional freedoms. This is the only way to accelerate the arrival of the singularity.

Trump wants to go after Amazon, Apple, Tesla, basically everyone in the Valley is screwed.  The  H2b visa will be gone and there will be a giant sucking sound of talent out of America.  But it's a great time be in business in America if you dig for coal, drill oil.  Also finance because Dodd frank is going Dodo Frank.  Trump will make us poised to dominate the economy of the late 19th century.  WTF do you think MAGA means?

After 8 years America will be the new Russia- an uncompetitive economy dominated by natural resource extraction and financial oligarchs

Your singularity will come but you'll need to move to Berlin for it.



Fuck that.
I aint gonna go to Berlin not even for the singularity.
I cannot let Zanza put a yellow star on my ass.

But you'll let Trump do so.  Take a good look at what I linked.  Do it.  It's important that you see.

You linked a loonie site, as is your wont.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

DGuller

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 13, 2016, 07:36:52 PM
So to get back to the point--I think that the Democratic party, and probably the Republican party, need to seriously figure out some mechanism to handle the disruptions of globalization before we jump into any more free trade deals. The results of this election have convinced me that I've frankly taken an elitist, and tone deaf view toward trade. Trade hasn't affected me personally, and I've just looked at the macro numbers. We have more jobs, higher wages, middling to decent GDP growth etc. What I ignored is there are pockets, big pockets, of our country where people, especially men, without college degrees have seen either complete wage stagnation or even real wage decreases since the 1970s. There's a statistic out there that I never knew until this election, that since 1975 or so, up to 2014, the wages for white men without college degrees actually decreased 20%.

The Democrats are supposed to be the party of fucking labor, and they have signed several major trade deals and were negotiating one right now that may satisfy my personal economic desires, but they were doing it without doing anything to meaningfully help blue collar workers survive this transition. Obviously even European countries are struggling, but we have a much worse labor safety net than any country in Europe, and we've been going full steam ahead with free trade. It's pretty hard in some Euro countries to just shut a factory down and move it to some third world country. I have some spitball ideas on things we could do to try and protect labor while allowing free trade, but I'm not going to pretend I have the answers--but guys like Bernie Sanders have recognized there's a lot of anger here and people that speak to this issue are going to win these votes, the Democrats haven't spoken to this issue at all in 2016, at least the establishment Dems.

To be honest the Democrats could well see me switch parties if they were able to answer this issue with something smarter than 45% tariffs on China and Mexico.
I've started questioning the free trade myself.  I understand the theory of why it is such a no-brainer, but what put doubts into my mind are the realities. 

In theory, if you move 1,000 jobs to China that pay $100,000 each, so that Apple can gain $200,000,000, that's a win.  You can always make Apple pay $150,000,000 to the fired workers, and everyone's happy.  In practice, Apple will just hoard $190,000,000 of its cash, and spent the other $10,000,000 paying Congress to make sure they don't have to pay up to the American workers.

Another theoretical consideration I question is that the world is not a zero-sum game.  Sure, China may win more from our trade, but we win too.  But if China spends those gains to permanently curtail our geopolitical power, do we really win at all?

dps

The thing about free trade is that it's good for everyone in the long term, but in the short to mid term, it can be very bad for some people.  I don't think anyone who has seriously looked at the issue has ever really doubted that some people get hurt if you're not looking long term.  And yes, it's an elitist position;  in practical terms, elitists are interested in the long term benefits to society as a whole, while populists are catering to short term fears and desires.  But that doesn't mean that those fears aren't real.

I think almost all of us here are elitists, at least when it comes to free trade issues.  Even those of us who aren't in favor of free trade seem to be elitists who simply disagree that free trade benefits everyone in the long term, rather than people looking at it from a populist POV, with maybe a couple of exceptions.  I think that I understand the people hurt in the short term by free trade more than most people here (for one thing, I don't feel any need to demonize the people who are being hurt by free trade as racists), but I have to admit that the result of this election causes me to strongly question how seriously I've considered the problem.

DGuller

Quote from: dps on November 13, 2016, 08:46:29 PM
I think that I understand the people hurt in the short term by free trade more than most people here (for one thing, I don't feel any need to demonize the people who are being hurt by free trade as racists), but I have to admit that the result of this election causes me to strongly question how seriously I've considered the problem.
I don't demonize people hurt by free trade as racists.  I demonize racists as racists.  Now, the political reality may be that economic problem exacerbate people's willingness to fall for racist rhetoric, and maybe that political reality has to be respected seriously, but that doesn't mean that those people themselves have to be respected.  Free trade or not, they're still bigots.


citizen k

There's free trade, then there's the so called "free trade" treaties that are light on free trade and written by the corporate lobbyists.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: citizen k on November 13, 2016, 10:22:14 PM
There's free trade, then there's the so called "free trade" treaties that are light on free trade and written by the corporate lobbyists.

What does this mean if you translate it from Berniebro speak to regular English?

Eddie Teach

Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

jimmy olsen

It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
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