What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

Also... it is tragicomical beyond measure that the post-War order and the West as a geopolitical entity is coming crashing down because the world is unable to satisfy the emotional needs of the "very special boy" that is Donald Trump.

... who was voted for by tens of millions. As bad as he is, keep in mind that there was a huge chunk of people who looked at him and said, "Yeah, give me a couple more years of that!"

I've harped on the power and danger of propaganda for a while.

I continue to believe in the power of propaganda, and that the current disaster facing the liberal democratic values of the West are significantly caused by the West ceding the field.

Individual Americans have as much free will and agency as any of us - but as a group they have been conditioned to become "like that" over the years by the media and messaging they've been exposed to.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Even if Trump got off the stage and a normal politician replaced him, America is now always just a single election away from declaring war on NATO allies. The support that's still there is unbelievable and the really scary bit here. Can't really see how trust can ever be rebuilt.

One path I can imagine is through a serious crisis in the US leading to a massive swing against Trump and his oligarchs, followed by a thorough de-Trumpification process where he, his families, and cronies are legally sanctioned and lose their wealth, and then followed by legal and institutional safeguards put in place for such a thing to not happen again.

It seems rather unlikely for such a scenario to play out any time soon, though.

Then again, sometimes these things sneak up on you. I guess there's a reason all those oligarch billionaires have been building bunkers in Hawaii and New Zealand and whatnot.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Yeah. Even if Trump got off the stage and a normal politician replaced him, America is now always just a single election away from declaring war on NATO allies. The support that's still there is unbelievable and the really scary bit here. Can't really see how trust can ever be rebuilt.

One path I can imagine is through a serious crisis in the US leading to a massive swing against Trump and his oligarchs, followed by a thorough de-Trumpification process where he, his families, and cronies are legally sanctioned and lose their wealth, and then followed by legal and institutional safeguards put in place for such a thing to not happen again.

The problem really goes beyond just Trump and his cronies though. The media landscape here has increasingly become dominated by the far right as Sinclair has bought up local stations and the main broadcasters have been bought or taken over by the right. Economically, we continue to see economic growth concentrated in the top 20% with little or no gains by the bottom. And the liberal left has repeatedly failed to rise to the occasion or take meaningful action.

[bogh]

Yeah, media landscape, electoral system (first past the post zero sum game, primaries pushing people to the extremes), gerrymandering, political courts staffed with incompetent hacks, bureaucracy purged of competence and many other factors. That stuff survives Trump.

Also judging by the Confederacy, discredited political cultures tend to survive for a long time in the US...

[HVC]

Yeah. Even if Trump got off the stage and a normal politician replaced him, America is now always just a single election away from declaring war on NATO allies. The support that's still there is unbelievable and the really scary bit here. Can't really see how trust can ever be rebuilt.

One path I can imagine is through a serious crisis in the US leading to a massive swing against Trump and his oligarchs, followed by a thorough de-Trumpification process where he, his families, and cronies are legally sanctioned and lose their wealth, and then followed by legal and institutional safeguards put in place for such a thing to not happen again.

It seems rather unlikely for such a scenario to play out any time soon, though.

Then again, sometimes these things sneak up on you. I guess there's a reason all those oligarch billionaires have been building bunkers in Hawaii and New Zealand and whatnot.

Even if that swings happens the path is open to the next guy. It's America's Sulla moment.

[Jacob]

The problem really goes beyond just Trump and his cronies though. The media landscape here has increasingly become dominated by the far right as Sinclair has bought up local stations and the main broadcasters have been bought or taken over by the right. Economically, we continue to see economic growth concentrated in the top 20% with little or no gains by the bottom. And the liberal left has repeatedly failed to rise to the occasion or take meaningful action.

Yeah, addressing that was covered in the "thorough de-Trumpification" part of the scenario. It's quite unlikely, obviously. I can't imagine it being even remotely likely except as a consequence of a major cataclysm or internal breakdown.

My expectation is that the high level of integrity of many of its individual members notwithstanding, the US military is not going to defend the Constitution against Trump's takeover.

I don't think the electoral process is going to deliver the US from fascism either. A popular uprising against Trump could work, but it is more likely to be suppressed or compromised than deliver. If anything is going to happen, I think it'll come after a hypothetical economic collapse triggered by the conflicts Trump and cronies are kicking off.

I remain vaguely optimistic for the medium and long term - I believe that the foundation of idiotic narcissism that the current regime is building on is inherently unstable and that will play out over time - but in the short term (years to decades) it's going to be a disastrous clusterfuck.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is no alliance now and I don't think that will change. Europe needs to develop strategic autonomy; things like our own starlink, payment systems, increasing nuclear weapons capability, stopping the use of the dollar for international payments etc etc

We may be too complacent and used to comfort to do this, I hope not.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

A popular uprising against Trump will likely go the same way as a popular uprising against the ayatollahs

[Jacob]

A popular uprising against Trump will likely go the same way as a popular uprising against the ayatollahs

The one difference is - I think - that the Iranian regime has spent decades shaping their various force applying institutions to support the regime's survival. In the US, while they've done some degree of purges in the the leadership there is more uncertainty about what level of despotism the military and various enforcement agencies will be ready to enforce (there's little doubt about ICE, of course).

That said, it's very clear that Trump and co are doing everything they can to provoke civil unrest, I expect to enact the next step of their plans.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Trump has sufficient amounts of magats with guns

[HisMajestyBOB]

Trump has sufficient amounts of magats with guns

How far can they travel in a rascal scooter though?