What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Josquius]

Saw some bits of starmer and trump talking yesterday

1: great poker face from starmer. No reaction. Just stoic. Albania has always been at war with Azerbaijan? Yes yes.

2: the bit where starmer said Hamas are terrorists and trump smiled and patted him on the back.... What the hell? Have the Razs been in trumps ear and told him people in Britain liked Hamas or something?

[HVC]

Thing is ... let's say the Democrats manage to take back the Senate, House of Representatives and Presidency by 2028 (feels very hypothetical at this point).

How do you even begin to fix the institutional damage that has been done by now?

Even if they do fix it, 2032 GOP will just dismantle it again. Doing it is not the hard part, it's realizing you can.

[crazy canuck]

Non Americans who want to visit the USA may also be well advised to be cautious in their speech.

That has been true for a few months already. Or at least if you're not careful about what you say about the deer leader, you better make sure you delete it all from your devices before you cross the border.


PP didn't win our election and so at the moment there is little risk that there will be any information sharing with the Dear lLeader about Canadian content. At least for now.

Although I note that the Baron probably is hosting this on an American server, and so the servants of the  Dear Leader have all our posts anyway.

[Josquius]

I've no plans to visit the US anytime soon but I can say for 100% if I do end up with cause to go I'm buying a new phone.

[Tamas]

I've no plans to visit the US anytime soon but I can say for 100% if I do end up with cause to go I'm buying a new phone.

Yep.

[Norgy]

Dubya endured his fair share of satire and media criticism. But he stood tall, anyway. Trump can't handle someone making fun of him, yet is qualified as president?

He is all about big crowds and ratings. Not policy.

Norway is doped on oil, but I have met two PMs, and they have no issues with getting a critical questions.

I noticed Trump mentioned Orwell among the greats along with Shakespeare. Now there is irony for you.

[Sheilbh]

Thing is ... let's say the Democrats manage to take back the Senate, House of Representatives and Presidency by 2028 (feels very hypothetical at this point).

How do you even begin to fix the institutional damage that has been done by now?

You don't fix it. You can't. I think that world is gone and not only is there no way of restoring it but a restorationist project would fail politically, causing further damage.

I think the institution that needs restoring is Congress. I've said it before but I do think if you build an imperial Presidency you will end up with a Caesar. If you are incapable of doing things through the legislature, then you will simply displace power to the judiciary and the executive - and my view is that the project has to actually be a re-balancing and a re-assertion of the legislature. As I think the most effective counter-weight to Trump or anyone else like him would be a Congressional figures who matter with their own democratic mandate.

If they win, and hopefully they do, my suspicion is that Democrats will go in for the more theatrical elements of oversight committee hearings which I don't think will work. I think they should go bigger but it may cause difficulties within their own coalition. Get rid of the War Powers Resolution, assert Congressional power on trade policy, push some legislation that is populist and popular on Medicare or Social Security and defy Republicans to back and embrace a fight with the courts. Plus I think look at the Gilded Age if that's where we think part of US politics is and embrace good government and reform - no more stock and share trading by members of Congress, appointees in the adminsitration or their immediate family; no more billionaires in appointed executive positions (obviously that will create ructions for say Pelosi or Pritzker or the current chair trying to heal the relationship with Silicon Valley guys who feel Musk has more say with Trump than they get with the Democrats). And to the extent they want to do the oversight bit - do a full report on Epstein, acknowledging that 2024 will be the last Convention addressed by Bill Clinton.

Engage in making a political argument with a political agenda - but also the only institution they should worry about is the legislature because a large part of why we are where we are is that they're not on the field and we have instead, imbued with immense power, the appointed technocratic roles of the executive and the judiciary.

[mongers]

I no longer even remember how to spell Optimissim.

[HVC]

Problem with empowering congress, Sheilbh, is that the GOP can still be elected to congress. Trump isn't some mastermind who brought down the American system. Hes a dope, but a dope with a machine behind him. A two party system dooms america. The system had a good 2 and a half century run. But not only is the train off the tracks, the tracks are themselves irrevocably twisted. How you fix that i don't know. A two party system is in every American  citizens soul, partisanship drives them. don't know how you break that, I'm not smart enough.

[HVC]

And while not as two party extreme as the US, the way the conservatives in Canada are lapping up American GOP dogma Canada isn't safe either.

[Sheilbh]

Problem with empowering congress, Sheilbh, is that the GOP can still be elected to congress. Trump isn't some mastermind who brought down the American system. Hes a dope, but a dope with a machine behind him. A two party system dooms america. The system had a good 2 and a half century run. But not only is the train off the tracks, the tracks are themselves irrevocably twisted. How you fix that i don't know. A two party system is in every Americans  citizens soul, partasinship drives them. don't know how you break that, I'm not smart enough.

Yeah I agree with that. I've said before but I can't think of a situation where a country gets out of this type of scenario with a presidency. I think it tends to end up either in an authoritarian regime or a "guardian coup" authoritarian regime in defence of the constitution.

But I'm a democrat - I believe in democracy. And I think the most effective sites of resistance in America for the last decade has been its democracy. It's been state and local government, decentralised electoral administration etc. The undemocratic institutions - whether that's the FBI or the courts or whatever else have been less effective. In my view precisely because they've been strengthened to compensate for the weakness of democracy (through Congress) at a federal level over the last 100 years. They need to be weakened if not destroyed and there needs to be more, and stronger, sites of democracy where I think resistance is most possible. I think any other idea focusing on the counter-majoritarian institutions will just deepen the malaise and provide even more power to the courts who are very conservative for the next twenty years or the executive.

FWIW I don't think Trump is a dope - I think he matters more to the GOP machine than vice versa.

[HVC]

FWIW I don't think Trump is a dope - I think he matters more to the GOP machine than vice versa.

While the GOP needs trump in this particular scenario. alternate world GOP could have still lucked out on another populist. Maybe it would take a few more decades, but it would happen and once it did we've seen how quickly the dominoes fall.  They've been playing to this end for a while. They needed their final piece. Without the machine trump couldn't have succeeded. Congress, like you said, would have stopped him or the courts.

As for your other point more democracy won't help when the option is the GOP just like more gasoline won't put out the fire... unless you add so much gasoline you burn down the building i guess

*edit* changed to Trump *couldn't* which makes my post make more sense

[Norgy]

I no longer even remember how to spell Optimissim.

No worries, even I could beat you at spelling. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Non Americans who want to visit the USA may also be well advised to be cautious in their speech  wear adult diapers and take other preparations for long periods of detention without trial if they fall into any of the following categories: (a) have expressed support for Palestine, (b) have said something critical about the President, (c) are one of the those sciency people that does sciency stuff, (d) own a mobile phone, (e) breathes oxygen.

FYP

[The Minsky Moment]

Albania has always been at war with Azerbaijan? Yes yes.

Trump is so good he stops wars before they can even be conceived.