What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

The penalty was never going to be the big deal with a campaign finance charge.  It's the arrest, the booking, the prints, the mug shot.  The Rubicon has been crossed. 

Or will be crossed very shortly.

Which is why I think this is not a good idea. It's only going to play up his martyrdom. They should really wait for something serious, like Georgia or Jan. 6. He's going to walk away from this and his supporters are going to go on how the Dems keep picking on him but nothing ever sticks.

Will he? I don't really know the evidence against him but I agree it probably helps him politically to just go up and beat this, and not hide out in Florida hoping his rival DeSantis protects him.

[Caliga]

While I hate Trump and would love to see him handcuffed and behind bars, I worry about how this will inflame his nutjob cult of personality, and feel like on the balance arresting and putting him on trial is probably not going to turn out well, even if it's the right thing to do.

[grumbler]

I think that we should probably wait until charges are actually filed before deciding whether it was wise to proceed with the indictment.   Formally charging him will open up a discovery process that might be worthwhile on its own.

[Sheilbh]

I know it's idealistic of me but I think if they have enough evidence to charge, then they should just apply the same test that they would to anyone else.

Thinking about the political effects is exactly the sort of corruption of the system that Trump wants and is going to claim exists regardless.

I'm a little more "let justice be done though the heavens fall".

[Josquius]

Don't we want to empower Trump at the moment though?
He won't win the overall election if he wins the primaries (he won't) and we want him shitting all over De Santis.

[Valmy]

I know it's idealistic of me but I think if they have enough evidence to charge, then they should just apply the same test that they would to anyone else.

Thinking about the political effects is exactly the sort of corruption of the system that Trump wants and is going to claim exists regardless.

I'm a little more "let justice be done though the heavens fall".

Yeah me to. When he wanted to "lock up" Clinton I was actually kind of looking forward to seeing if they actually had something to charge her with. They didn't, not surprisingly, but I would have been fine with it if they did. Politicians, least of all, shouldn't be above the law.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Few things to keep in mind:

1. It would be deeply inappropriate for DA Alvin Bragg--a local prosecutor, to weigh national Democratic party political concerns in making a charging decision. He empaneled a grand jury, they returned over 30 counts, if he believes he has a strong case he has an ethical obligation to pursue it. While prosecutorial discretion is a thing, it is not appropriate to use it over "national political concerns."

2. There is nothing to show, right now, that Trump is going to easily beat this set of charges at all.

3. I broadly reject the concept that if Trump's potential share of the vote is say, 45-46% which has always been about where he tops out, that being indicted for a crime is going to increase that share. Making existing Trump supporters frothier, louder, and angrier doesn't actually produce additional votes. I broadly disagree that this "secures Trump's reelection" like idiot Musk said. There is a strong possibility he will also be facing an additional indictment in Georgia, and a moderate chance the DOJ investigation could result in a Federal indictment as well. If anything I would think "reluctant Trump voters" who we have always known were a portion of those who voted for him, are more likely to be peeled off by all the press and details relating to corruption in this. The hardcore Trumpers are part of a cult, but them being even more cult-like is not an additive electoral activity.

I do think the indictments working Trump's base up put DeSantis in a poor position to contest the primary though, with that crowd anything that is getting them riled up on Trump's behalf is going to make it very hard for DeSantis to get through to them.

[Oexmelin]

Legal impunity is what fuels the cult of force and strength upon which fascists thrive.

This goes well beyond Trump.

[Habbaku]

I know it's idealistic of me but I think if they have enough evidence to charge, then they should just apply the same test that they would to anyone else.

Thinking about the political effects is exactly the sort of corruption of the system that Trump wants and is going to claim exists regardless.

I'm a little more "let justice be done though the heavens fall".

[The Minsky Moment]

If he's down at Mar-a-lago, could Florida refuse to extradite? 

No Article IV of the constitution requires him to cooperate.  If he doesn't, New York can get a writ of mandamus and enforce in federal court in Florida.

[Jacob]

I know it's idealistic of me but I think if they have enough evidence to charge, then they should just apply the same test that they would to anyone else.

Thinking about the political effects is exactly the sort of corruption of the system that Trump wants and is going to claim exists regardless.

I'm a little more "let justice be done though the heavens fall".

Yup I'm on that team also

I mean, I might fret about the repercussions... but that fretting shouldn't change the course of action or the pursuit of justice.

[PDH]

I mean, I might fret about the repercussions... but that fretting shouldn't change the course of action or the pursuit of justice.

It is when worry become paralysis that we stop acting, the opposite of how unthinking action leads to chaos.

Good people fret and pause when fools don't know to fret.

[Tamas]

While I hate Trump and would love to see him handcuffed and behind bars, I worry about how this will inflame his nutjob cult of personality, and feel like on the balance arresting and putting him on trial is probably not going to turn out well, even if it's the right thing to do.

I maintain my theory that it would work splendidly for the GOP grandees and it is them with their influence over the judicial system who are orchestrating this.

Trump will never ever win an election again. Yet setting him aside by the party would trigger a right-wing civil war. Except if Trump is sidelined, better yet imprisoned by the Evil Establishment. Thats the perfect outcome. It removes him as a candidate and yet not only maintains his followers' support behind the party but galvanises it.

[The Minsky Moment]

1. It would be deeply inappropriate for DA Alvin Bragg--a local prosecutor, to weigh national Democratic party political concerns in making a charging decision. He empaneled a grand jury, they returned over 30 counts, if he believes he has a strong case he has an ethical obligation to pursue it. While prosecutorial discretion is a thing, it is not appropriate to use it over "national political concerns."

The DA is not a passive actor here - grand juries don't appear ex nihilo and surprise the DAs office by suddenly churning out charge sheets.

That said - I broadly agree with the point. 

If it had  been anyone else other than Trump - or it had been Trump c. 2012, this case would have been brought long ago.  It would be unthinkable for a self-respecting prosecutor to bring charges in a conspiracy case against the #2 guy in the conspiracy, get a plea and cooperation and then just walk away from charging the top guy, unless there were some powerful legal defenses that don't seem to exist here.  The only reason Trump wasn't charged is that he was president at the time.

Now that he isn't President, not to charge means taking the position that a crime that would result in the prosecution of any other person will not be charged for the sole reason that the perp used to be President.  And that proposition is repugnant to the rule of the law.

[Caliga]

Now that he isn't President, not to charge means taking the position that a crime that would result in the prosecution of any other person will not be charged for the sole reason that the perp used to be President.  And that proposition is repugnant to the rule of the law.

Yeah I know.  I just worry that innocent people are going to end up getting hurt as a result of the indictment, etc.  I know it's the right thing to do though.