What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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OttoVonBismarck

I have read some analyses that think we hit "peak" unstable / crazy in the GOP and are going to enter a long period where that recedes. Obviously no way to know if it's true but if you ascribe to that theory you can find some signs supporting it.

FWIW Trump could still win in 2024, as could basically anyone the Republicans nominate. I have said since not long after the 2020 election that Trump is likely Biden's best matchup--I think a lot of the squishy suburban voters who aren't reliably going to flip to Democrats but bailed on Trump are unlikely to feel like giving him another chance. Without them all the important states Trump would need remain out of reach--particularly since some of them are slowly getting a little bluer each cycle due to the natural shift of older white people dying off. But I still give Trump a puncher's chance of winning against Biden in '24. I think most other Republican candidates will probably be very close to even odds on beating Biden and some I think would be clearly favored to beat him.

The Democrats are a majority of the country but they are horribly distributed geographically, and that problem shows little sign of abating.

OttoVonBismarck

Odd little side bar on the geographic distribution thing, there are some signs that the Republicans may be--in a small way, starting to sort themselves a bit like that as well. I have seen a few of the deep dive data nerds who think that the persistent emigration of older white folk from the Midwest to Florida, which is a major factor in Florida moving from purple to red, likely dampened GOP performance in PA / WI / MI / MN, all rust belt states that while purplish had been showing some gradual signs of becoming more red in part due to out-migration of young people to coastal states.

As home prices have soared in States more typically desirable to young progressives, the theory goes more of them are staying put in "lower prime" states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, meanwhile the snowbirds who always planned to retire to Florida are continuing to do so apace.

I think data like that can be interpreted the way they're interpreting it, although I think there's so many factors in both migration and voting that it's a little hard to say if it really screwed the GOP over in '22.

The Larch

QuoteTrump Organization guilty of tax fraud, New York jury finds
Twelve-person jury returns guilty verdict against former president's company after being sent out on Monday to deliberate

A jury in New York has convicted the Trump Organization of criminal tax fraud in a major blow for the former president.

Although Donald Trump was not personally on trial, prosecutors insisted he was fully aware of the 15-year scheme in which they said executives were enriched by off-the-books perks to make up for lower salaries, reducing the company's tax liabilities.

The 12-person jury in New York's state court was sent out to deliberate on Monday morning after a six-week trial in which Trump Organization lawyers pinned blame for the fraud solely on the greed of longtime chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg.

The former close ally of Trump accepted a plea deal earlier this year admitting fraud in exchange for a five-month prison sentence. Prosecutors laid out a case heavily reliant on Weisselberg's testimony.

The verdict represents a serious blow to Trump and his family who rose to fame as property moguls in New York but whose business practices have long shadowed in secrecy with rumors of ill-doing.

It is also the latest in a raft of legal troubles that surround Trump, including several investigations related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election victory of Joe Biden and his apparent removal of sensitive White House documents to his Florida resort of Mar-a-Lago.

The monthlong trial featured testimony from seven witnesses, including Weisselberg and senior vice-president and controller Jeffrey McConney. An outside accountant who spent years preparing tax returns for Trump and the company also testified.

Earlier jurors had zeroed in on the last count listed on the verdict sheet: falsifying business records.

Jurors sent notes twice Tuesday asking for clarity on the falsifying business records charge and a reading of related testimony.

Weisselberg testified that he ordered accounts payable supervisor Deborah Tarasoff to delete "per Allen Weisselberg" notations from entries in Trump's personal general ledger reflecting that Trump personally paid private school tuition for Weisselberg's grandchildren.

First, jurors asked the judge to reread the charge and the elements they are required to find for a guilty verdict. Later, they asked to again hear Tarasoff's testimony.
Tarasoff, a Trump Organization veteran, testified that Weisselberg called her into his office and told her, "Go in and take my name off it" in September 2016.

After resuming deliberations Tuesday, jurors sent a note asking the judge to reread three counts of falsifying business records pertaining to the creation of false W2 tax forms for Weisselberg for 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The legal woes have to a large extent over-shadowed Trump's recent announcement of a 2024 run to return to the White House.

Though Trump's campaign was launched with great fanfare from Mar-a-Lago, it has not set the political world alight after high profile Trump-backed candidates were largely defeated in November's midterm elections.

Numerous rivals to Trump are now starting to emerge in the Republican party, especially Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

Admiral Yi

Anyone know what it means when a corporation, as opposed to an individual, is convicted on criminal charges?

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2022, 06:19:54 PMAnyone know what it means when a corporation, as opposed to an individual, is convicted on criminal charges?

Possible penalties include fines, restitution orders, and appointment of monitors or receivers.  Certain businesses in regulated fields can lose licenses and access to government contracts.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson


The Minsky Moment

Going back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 06, 2022, 06:31:27 PMGoing back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.

Because of reputational effects, or because of legal liability?

And is the decision to pursue charges against a corporation as opposed to individuals a political decision or is it based in law?

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2022, 07:30:35 PMBecause of reputational effects, or because of legal liability?

And is the decision to pursue charges against a corporation as opposed to individuals a political decision or is it based in law?

1. Mostly reputational but there is some linkage. I.e. one factor a lender or investor may consider is the probability they will be dragged into some ugly legal mess, receive subpoenas, etc.  The loan officer that approves Normco A can always say that if some problem happens, there was no way to know Normco wasn't normal.  The loan officer that approves credit to Convict Co T is going to have a lot of explaining to do at bonus time if problems happen with that deal.

2.  Same as with humans, but the ideal and real do not always match perfectly.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Barrister

Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Barrister

Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Brain

I guess he should have studied military history.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

alfred russel

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 06, 2022, 06:31:27 PMGoing back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.

this isn't a fair comparison.

Arthur Anderson had a significant business of auditing SEC registrants, and the SEC disallowed arthur anderson from providing that business during the time that they were convicted. So they lost a massive chunk of their clients and were effectively out of business before the conviction was overturned.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Gups

Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 06, 2022, 06:31:27 PMGoing back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.

this isn't a fair comparison.

Arthur Anderson had a significant business of auditing SEC registrants, and the SEC disallowed arthur anderson from providing that business during the time that they were convicted. So they lost a massive chunk of their clients and were effectively out of business before the conviction was overturned.

Isn't that what he just said?