What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Tamas]

Trump loses his appeal to 11th Circuit, which unanimously decides that Canon had no authority to appoint a special master.  Canon gets especially slammed in the decision.  All three judges appointed by Republicans, two of them by Trump himself.

He also lost, in DC Circuit, his claims that his lawyers testifying in front of Jan 6 Committee could invoke executive privilege at will.  They'll be back.

Very bad legal day for Trump.

You know what, I was thinking, this decision aligns very well with how Trump seems to be losing GOP adoration and focus. He could be all kinds of trouble if he won't end up being their candidate in 2024 but decides to run independent. Having "the Democrats" send him to prison would be a far, far superior outcome for them.

[DGuller]

I've been saying for a long while that at some point Trump will become convenient for Republicans to disassociate from, once he's no longer useful.  I've been badly wrong about it for a while, but maybe I was wrong only on the timing.

[Razgovory]

Trump loses his appeal to 11th Circuit, which unanimously decides that Canon had no authority to appoint a special master.  Canon gets especially slammed in the decision.  All three judges appointed by Republicans, two of them by Trump himself.

He also lost, in DC Circuit, his claims that his lawyers testifying in front of Jan 6 Committee could invoke executive privilege at will.  They'll be back.

Very bad legal day for Trump.

You know what, I was thinking, this decision aligns very well with how Trump seems to be losing GOP adoration and focus. He could be all kinds of trouble if he won't end up being their candidate in 2024 but decides to run independent. Having "the Democrats" send him to prison would be a far, far superior outcome for them.

It's what they are betting on.  Democrats get rid of Trump while Republicans defend him.  That way they get to have their cake and eat it too.  They tried this before after the insurrection but it didn't work.  I don't think it will work this time either.

[alfred russel]

I've been saying for a long while that at some point Trump will become convenient for Republicans to disassociate from, once he's no longer useful.  I've been badly wrong about it for a while, but maybe I was wrong only on the timing.

I said this the day after the midterms...Trump is done. It is one thing when he is winning elections, it is another when he is losing what should have been layups.

[Barrister]

I've been saying for a long while that at some point Trump will become convenient for Republicans to disassociate from, once he's no longer useful.  I've been badly wrong about it for a while, but maybe I was wrong only on the timing.

Trump still maintains the fanatical loyalty of a sizeable percentage of the GOP base though.

I think we've seen in 2022 that Trump's support is not necessarily enough to get Republicans elected in the general, but it is enough to win the GOP nomination.  Trump himself still has to be the odd-on favourite to be the GOP nominee.

[Habbaku]

Trump as the nominee would be a godsend this time around, but perhaps still too risky to actually desire.

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed he does a lot of damage in running for the nomination  however.

[Barrister]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

[Josquius]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

Sure. It'd also be nice if fusion power was finally cracked and cancer cured.

[Jacob]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

I'm hoping for serious, not-crazy, not-evil.

[DGuller]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

Sure. It'd also be nice if fusion power was finally cracked and cancer cured.

It would indeed be nice, no?  What's the catch?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've been saying for a long while that at some point Trump will become convenient for Republicans to disassociate from, once he's no longer useful.  I've been badly wrong about it for a while, but maybe I was wrong only on the timing.

Trump still maintains the fanatical loyalty of a sizeable percentage of the GOP base though.

I think we've seen in 2022 that Trump's support is not necessarily enough to get Republicans elected in the general, but it is enough to win the GOP nomination.  Trump himself still has to be the odd-on favourite to be the GOP nominee.

The GOP uses a hodge podge of selection systems in the primaries, but the majority are quasi-first past the post, where the highest vote getter takes most, and sometimes winner take all--particularly the last third of states on the calendar I believe deliberately tilt towards winner take all to provide a decisive winner down the stretch.

The typical first past the post problem thus arises, the same one that made Trump impossible to beat in 2015/16--as long as Trump is the plurality candidate he will amass more and more delegates, and by the time the field narrows to him and one challenger, it is very likely he will mathematically be unbeatable. Up to the point where this happens he probably only needs 35% of the primary votes, assuming a decently robust field of challengers--and I see no reason to assume we won't literally have DeSantis, Pompeo, Haley, Rubio, Cruz and a number of others out there.

To beat Trump the Republicans need powerful and incredibly egotistical Republican politicians to foreswear a run for the Presidency and coalesce in unison behind DeSantis (the best candidate to beat Trump and probably their best national candidate period.) We'll see if that happens. It somewhat did in the Democratic primary in 2020 when Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropped out to coalesce the moderate vote behind Biden and knee cap Bernie.

[Sophie Scholl]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

Do they have anyone left who qualifies and has any chance whatsoever of winning? The Trump era of the party has pretty much destroyed any relatively moderate or civil people and has encouraged everyone else to sink to the lowest possible level to keep up with Trump and company.

[Admiral Yi]

Do they have anyone left who qualifies and has any chance whatsoever of winning? The Trump era of the party has pretty much destroyed any relatively moderate or civil people and has encouraged everyone else to sink to the lowest possible level to keep up with Trump and company.

Maybe Mitt.

[Josquius]

Am I crazy for hoping that the GOP nominates a serious and not-crazy candidate so US voters have two viable candidates to pick from?

I don't think I'm crazy...

Sure. It'd also be nice if fusion power was finally cracked and cancer cured.

It would indeed be nice, no?  What's the catch?

It's not happening anytime soon.