What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

Obviously, I want everybody to be subject to the law, even (especially) politicians and celebrities. Even politicians who are celebrities.

But since it is Donald Trump they better have some really damning shit on him. If this is some weak sauce garbage, it could be very damaging.

[The Minsky Moment]

The NYAG lawsuit is a civil case, which has two important implications

One is the the standard of proof is mere preponderance of the evidence,

Second is that taking the 5th amendment in a civil case allows for an adverse inference -- i.e. one can infer that the answer would have been damaging.  That is a significant since Trump and others liberally took the 5th in their depositions.

[viper37]

It's Trump, Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka who are sued.

Donald Trump, 3 of his children accused of business fraud by New York AG

Lawsuit alleges $250 million fraud, seeks to bar the Trumps from serving as executives of any company operating in New York

NEW YORK — New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit Wednesday accusing former president Donald Trump, three of his grown children and executives at his company of flagrantly manipulating property valuations to deceive lenders, insurance brokers and tax authorities into giving them better rates on bank loans and insurance policies and to reduce their tax liability.


The 222-page civil complaint asks the New York Supreme Court to bar Trump, as well as Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump, from serving as executives at any company in New York, and to bar the Trump Organization from acquiring any commercial real estate or receiving loans from any New York-registered financial institution for five years.
It seeks to recover more than $250 million in what James's office says are ill-gotten gains received through the alleged deceptive practices. While the lawsuit itself is not a criminal prosecution, James (D) said she has referred possible violations of federal law to the Justice Department and the IRS.


Trump lawyer Alina Habba dismissed the allegations as politically motivated, saying in a statement that the attorney general's claims are "meritless."

The lawsuit, filed in New York Supreme Court, is the result of a more than two-year investigation by James and names 23 properties in the Trump Organization portfolio, including his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida, his Seven Springs estate in Westchester County, N.Y., and the D.C. hotel he leased from the federal government until he sold it in May.
"The inflated asset valuations in the Statements cannot be brushed aside or excused as merely the result of exaggeration or good faith estimation about which reasonable real estate professionals may differ," it says.

It adds to a deepening list of legal challenges that Trump faces more than 18 months after he left the White House and at a time when he remains actively involved in Republican politics and has broadly suggested he will run for president again in 2024.

In addition to naming Trump and three of his children personally, the suit names the Trump Organization and Allen Weisselberg, Trump's longtime chief financial officer who recently pleaded guilty to tax crimes, and controller Jeffrey McConney.

Trump and his family have repeatedly called James's inquiry a "witch hunt," pointing to statements James made on the campaign trail in which she promised to investigate him. They have denied any wrongdoing.

"Today's filing is neither focused on the facts nor the law – rather, it is solely focused on advancing the Attorney General's political agenda," Habba said in her statement. "We are confident that our judicial system will not stand for this unchecked abuse of authority, and we look forward to defending our client against each and every one of the Attorney General's meritless claims."

Rather than focusing narrowly on a few instances of misconduct, James's office portrayed Trump, his family and executives of employing a wide array of fraudulent maneuvers in their dealings with lenders and regulators despite knowing that they were illegal. The suit highlights Trump's practice of distributing statements of financial condition inflating the values of his properties and sometimes exaggerating how many acres those properties cover or how many homes could be built on them.
Defense attorneys have said in court that commercial real estate firms routinely argue for lower tax appraisals and that the company's conduct was no different, but James said Wednesday that the misstated valuations cannot be brushed as a "good faith mistake."

The former president and his family should be held to the same standards as everyday Americans, James said at a news conference in Manhattan, noting that it is illegal for people to lie to banks in order to secure loans to send their children to college or get a home mortgage.
"Claiming you have money that you do not have does not amount to the art of the deal. It's the art of the steal," James said, mocking the titled of Donald Trump's 1987 book. "There cannot be different rules for different people in this country or in this state."

[Syt]

[Barrister]

So the NY Times reported on this kind of tax evasion years ago: that he would over-report values in order to get loans, then under-report values to minimize his taxes.  There appears to be plenty of evidence.

But a civil case of this magnitude is going to take years, even without factoring in Trump's attempts to rdelay.  This certainly isn't going to resolve before the 2024 election.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Lot to unpack from the Trumpism:

1. The New York Attorney General, like the AG of almost all (maybe all?) of the States, is not a law enforcement position, and is not involved in prosecuting crimes at all. Crimes are prosecuted by local prosecutors who are not part of the New York Attorney General's office.

2. He then specifically cites New York City's crime / murder rate, which the city operates substantially independently from the State, (James is not part of New York City's government.)

3. New York City, according to the 2019 UCR, ranks 80th of cities above 100,000 population in criminal homicide rate. In total crime rate, it ranks 95th--in fact Buffalo ranks higher in both metrics, so it is not even the city in New York State with the highest crime and murder rate.

4. As for polling, there has been little real polling of the race she is currently in for reelection, but she won like 65% of the vote in 2018. Back in July she was polling around 50% in high quality polls and her opponent was polling in the low to mid 30s. The poll that Trump is likely referring to, and which you can find on Breitbart and other fake news sites, is one put out by the Trafalgar Group recently that shows her losing--but Trafalgar is essentially a fake pollster. They generate pro-Republican polls for the purpose of Fox News and other partisan news sources being able to cite/talk about them. They aren't just a Republican leaning, but legitimate, firm like Rasmussen, Trafalgar is just legitimately fake. Their response rates etc, none of it are real.

[CountDeMoney]

My social media bubble is gleeful, but I'd like a sober second opinion from folks here.

That's so adorable how people still, after all this time, believe in the whole judiciary court thingy when it comes to Trump. 

He's being sued, whoopdie-fucking-do. Big deal, he'll settle. And, as usual, his donors will pay for it.

asks the New York Supreme Court to bar Trump, as well as Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump, from serving as executives at any company in New York, and to bar the Trump Organization from acquiring any commercial real estate or receiving loans from any New York-registered financial institution for five years.
It seeks to recover more than $250 million in what James's office says are ill-gotten gains received through the alleged deceptive practices.

[The Minsky Moment]

We are going to find out very soon how far up the federal judiciary the MAGA rot extends.

Apparently not into the 11th Circuit court of appeals, despite 2 Trump appointed judges on the panel.

Judge Cannon's injunction is stayed as to 100 classified docs, Cannon is slapped down in the opinion.

[Jacob]

That's good to hear

Apparently the next place to appeal to is the Supreme Court. Presuming it's up the the Supremes whether they'll even hear an appeal? What are the mechanics of this?

In separate news, I've been seeing a few clips of Rep. Raskin from Maryland. Pretty good.

[Admiral Yi]

I just noticed the number of ReTruths(tm) and Likes on Donald's....Truthie. Trooth?

[The Minsky Moment]

That's good to hear

Apparently the next place to appeal to is the Supreme Court. Presuming it's up the the Supremes whether they'll even hear an appeal? What are the mechanics of this?

They can appeal to the full 11th circuit court of appeals, to the Supreme Court, or both.  However, in both cases the decision to take the appeal is discretionary.  I doubt it will be taken.

[OttoVonBismarck]

We are going to find out very soon how far up the federal judiciary the MAGA rot extends.

Apparently not into the 11th Circuit court of appeals, despite 2 Trump appointed judges on the panel.

Judge Cannon's injunction is stayed as to 100 classified docs, Cannon is slapped down in the opinion.

Saw that this morning, seems like a decent bit of evidence that Cannon is shockingly bad at this whole judge thing, even by the standards of a Trump appointed jurist.

[viper37]

The Special Master appointed to the case has ordered Trump's team to prove their assumption that the FBI planted documents in Mar-a-Lago.  Ouch, that hurts. 

[Barrister]

The Special Master appointed to the case has ordered Trump's team to prove their assumption that the FBI planted documents in Mar-a-Lago.  Ouch, that hurts. 

Not prove.  But the Special Master just wants them to actual say if they're claiming it or not.  Which is actually kind of colder.

[The Minsky Moment]

Dearie is reacting to the fact that in the District Court, Judge Cannon allowed the plaintiff to proceed by making factual claims, representations, and insinuations without proper evidentiary support - i.e. without sworn affidavits or documentary proof.  That is a big no-no and it explains in part why Judge Cannon's decisions were such a train wreck - she was incorporating "facts" that were not part of the record.

One immediate consequence was the slapdown on appeal, because the first thing the appeals court does is review the record, and the record below consisted entirely of exhibits and affidavits submitted by the DOJ.

Dearie is dealing with same situation.  His first task is to nail down the universe of what he is supposed to review and what it is.  So a key preliminary question is whether the FBI inventory is accurate.  On the first day, he asked the Trump lawyers about it, and they basically said "Maybe."  That doesn't work.  They either have to accept the inventory or dispute it, and if they are disputing, they must give reasons why in some sort of evidentiary form.