What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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Admiral Yi

I thought electoral votes were distributed solely on the basis of population.  Don't see how rural overrepresentation is a result.

Valmy

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2016, 12:44:41 PM
I thought electoral votes were distributed solely on the basis of population.  Don't see how rural overrepresentation is a result.

No. You get three just for showing up. (Except for DC, DC is weird)
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Tamas

So after 8 years of being "starved" of the Presidency and now having total control over the country, PLUS the very real risk of Donald running amok and destroying their party, isn't there a good chance a lot of Republican congressmen will just get behind whatever lunacy Trump thinks of, as long as they get perks and hoard money/influence while they are able to do so?

celedhring

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2016, 12:44:41 PM
I thought electoral votes were distributed solely on the basis of population.  Don't see how rural overrepresentation is a result.

Doesn't seem to be completely the case. This is from the 2008 election, and you can see that the most populous states are clearly underrepresented vs the less populated ones. There isn't that clear of a Rep/Dem bias (the Dems have a stranglehold on a bunch of small states themselves), but I haven't run the numbers.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/fairvote/pages/199/attachments/original/1450119297/2008votersperelector.pdf?1450119297

Gups

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2016, 12:44:41 PM
I thought electoral votes were distributed solely on the basis of population.  Don't see how rural overrepresentation is a result.

I guess it's the minimum 3. So the 500,000 Wyoming population gets 3 reps while 39m Californians get 55 (would be 234 reps if proportionate with Wyoming)

celedhring

Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2016, 12:48:02 PM
So after 8 years of being "starved" of the Presidency and now having total control over the country, PLUS the very real risk of Donald running amok and destroying their party, isn't there a good chance a lot of Republican congressmen will just get behind whatever lunacy Trump thinks of, as long as they get perks and hoard money/influence while they are able to do so?

Yeah, I can't see the Republicans wasting this chance of reshaping the country, they'll throw whatever bones at Donald in exchange of the chance of turning the clock back 8 years. Whether they have the political capital to completely run amok I'm not sure though.

Valmy

Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2016, 12:54:11 PM
Yeah, I can't see the Republicans wasting this chance of reshaping the country

Don't give them too much credit. The Republicans are great at uniting in opposition to things but quickly fall apart when trying to unite behind something (though I guess that is true of most political coalitions). They were in an even stronger position in 2004 and threw it away.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Berkut on November 09, 2016, 12:31:59 PM
It really isn't surprising.

The electoral college gives outsized representation to rural voters, who vote Republican.

The electoral college disparity is such that even if the EVs were distributed more in accordance to population, it probably wouldn't make a difference.  Particular this cycle where Trump won some big states like FLA/TX/PA and HRC won a bunch of smaller like DE/MD/NV/CT/etc.

Trump won the EC by eking out some narrow victories in key states while HRC ran up big voter numbers in places like CA and NY
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Minsky Moment

Note that the total "right" vote (Trump+McMuffin+Johnson) will be significantly > than HRC+Stein ("left")

This really isn't a Bush-Gore scenario.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

CountDeMoney

The fact remains that--after everything we've seen, from the general election to the primaries, even going back years as a predictor--the GOP (such that it is) STILL thinks it can manage Trump is almost as stunning as the election result itself.


Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2016, 01:13:11 PM
Trump won the EC by eking out some narrow victories in key states while HRC ran up big voter numbers in places like CA and NY

Yup.  Only close Hillary state I can think of is VA.

Barrister

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2016, 01:16:19 PM
The fact remains that--after everything we've seen, from the general election to the primaries, even going back years as a predictor--the GOP (such that it is) STILL thinks it can manage Trump is almost as stunning as the election result itself.

I don't think the GOP thinks they can manage Trump.  They merely hope they can.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

frunk

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2016, 01:14:43 PM
Note that the total "right" vote (Trump+McMuffin+Johnson) will be significantly > than HRC+Stein ("left")

This really isn't a Bush-Gore scenario.

I'm not sure, I think the Johnson vote is a weird coalition that potentially had more HRC voters than Trump.  I think many Never Trump chose to only go halfway and ended up at Johnson.

Jacob

Best case presidency benchmark: Silvio Berlusconi
Bad case presidency benchmark: Vladimir Putin
Worst case presidency benchmark: Hugo Chavez

Valmy

I have a hard time seeing anybody do worse than Chavez. Even Mikhail Gorbachev thinks he did badly.

He did die though. So that worked out well for him.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."