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The Minority Report a Reality!!!!!!!!!

Started by 11B4V, May 23, 2016, 07:33:49 PM

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Martinus

It sounds like law enforcement 101. Nobody is talking about putting people in jail preemptively, like in the Minority Report - but good intel should clearly be one of the biggest parts of both crime prevention and crime investigation.

CountDeMoney

This isn't about good intel;  it's about Compstat and making the numbers fit.  Anything that ports over to law enforcement the very same methodologies that are breaking everything else (Six Sigma, etc.) should be a clue.

Want good intel?  Get the cops out of their cars, walk their beats, know their neighborhoods, learn the streets the old-fashioned way.  Fuck Compstat.  Goddamned Vietnam Whiz Kids bodycounting bullshit.

DGuller

Computer models don't replace human judgment, they supplement it.

derspiess

Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 24, 2016, 02:26:16 AM
This isn't about good intel;  it's about Compstat and making the numbers fit.  Anything that ports over to law enforcement the very same methodologies that are breaking everything else (Six Sigma, etc.) should be a clue.

Want good intel?  Get the cops out of their cars, walk their beats, know their neighborhoods, learn the streets the old-fashioned way.  Fuck Compstat.  Goddamned Vietnam Whiz Kids bodycounting bullshit.

And get rid of them goddamned Glocks and go back to the humble, trusty .38 revolver, amirite??
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 24, 2016, 02:26:16 AM
This isn't about good intel;  it's about Compstat and making the numbers fit.  Anything that ports over to law enforcement the very same methodologies that are breaking everything else (Six Sigma, etc.) should be a clue.

Want good intel?  Get the cops out of their cars, walk their beats, know their neighborhoods, learn the streets the old-fashioned way.  Fuck Compstat.  Goddamned Vietnam Whiz Kids bodycounting bullshit.

Preach it, Brother Seedy.  The naysayers just Don't Get It.

Check at figure 32 on this Presidential report.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160423_cea_incarceration_criminal_justice.pdf

US has more than 150% more corrections officers than other countries.  Same amount of prosecutors, a few less judges.
But 34.6% fewer police officers.

That's the reality of modern US law enforcement.  Fight crime by grabbing any "risky" person and warehouse them in jail.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Berkut

The GOP seems to think the problem is that we don't put enough people in prison. Cotton actually said that we have a "under-incarceration problem".
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

select * from users where clue > 0
0 rows returned

Razgovory

Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2016, 01:33:11 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 24, 2016, 01:23:11 AM
Is this a principle you believe, in regards to law enforcement?

Can you just do the gotcha part without the question?

Gotcha.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

The Brain

Quote from: Berkut on May 24, 2016, 12:21:42 PM
The GOP seems to think the problem is that we don't put enough people in prison. Cotton actually said that we have a "under-incarceration problem".

Do you dispute that people are prison insecure?
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

DGuller


Jacob

Quote from: DGuller on May 24, 2016, 08:16:42 AM
Computer models don't replace human judgment, they supplement it.

... in many cases computer models justify executives and senior management overriding the judgement of experienced people based on numbers they can make fit their own preconceptions.

Which I guess is just a longer rephrasing of what you just said :)

DGuller

Quote from: Jacob on May 24, 2016, 04:48:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 24, 2016, 08:16:42 AM
Computer models don't replace human judgment, they supplement it.

... in many cases computer models justify executives and senior management overriding the judgement of experienced people based on numbers they can make fit their own preconceptions.

Which I guess is just a longer rephrasing of what you just said :)
No, that's not really it at all.

Humans have certain advantages over algorithms.  But they also have their cognitive biases and limitations on the amount of data they can process, so algorithms have certain advantages over humans.  If you don't want to be a fossil who gets left behind in the age of algorithms, you need to recognize this fact and focus on learning how you can augment algorithms most effectively.

The Minsky Moment

The algorithm can only be as good s the quality of the info going in and if the automation is being used as a justification for cutting the human budget you are in GIGO.  Also how does when verify the model without running into problems of reverse causality?  I.e. the algorithm targets certain at risk people, who are then subject to certain interventions which may in turn lead them to asocial responses.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

DGuller

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2016, 05:28:08 PM
The algorithm can only be as good s the quality of the info going in and if the automation is being used as a justification for cutting the human budget you are in GIGO. 
The issue of data quality is both vastly underemphasized and vastly overemphasized at the same time.  People who never built models generally don't appreciate just how crappy real life data is.  That said, people who never built models also don't appreciate how models built on imperfect data can still be useful, just not as useful.  Which can still be a whole lot more useful than no model at all.

QuoteAlso how does when verify the model without running into problems of reverse causality?  I.e. the algorithm targets certain at risk people, who are then subject to certain interventions which may in turn lead them to asocial responses.
You validate the model when you build it, not after deploying it.  And you have causation issues any time you want to intervene in something or prevent something, so if you're concerned about that, crime fighting is not for you.

Jacob

Quote from: DGuller on May 24, 2016, 05:05:00 PM
No, that's not really it at all.

Humans have certain advantages over algorithms.  But they also have their cognitive biases and limitations on the amount of data they can process, so algorithms have certain advantages over humans.  If you don't want to be a fossil who gets left behind in the age of algorithms, you need to recognize this fact and focus on learning how you can augment algorithms most effectively.

I think what I've been exposed to is people who talk the talk you just talked there, and who wielded spreadsheets and data to advance their arguments; but they have done so in areas where the proper application of algorithms is not well understood or where they themselves have no real understanding of the data they are wielding.

... cargo-cult and/or management fad applications of algorithms, as it were.

DGuller

Quote from: Jacob on May 24, 2016, 06:35:51 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 24, 2016, 05:05:00 PM
No, that's not really it at all.

Humans have certain advantages over algorithms.  But they also have their cognitive biases and limitations on the amount of data they can process, so algorithms have certain advantages over humans.  If you don't want to be a fossil who gets left behind in the age of algorithms, you need to recognize this fact and focus on learning how you can augment algorithms most effectively.

I think what I've been exposed to is people who talk the talk you just talked there, and who wielded spreadsheets and data to advance their arguments; but they have done so in areas where the proper application of algorithms is not well understood or where they themselves have no real understanding of the data they are wielding.

... cargo-cult and/or management fad applications of algorithms, as it were.
Yes, models can be dangerous in the hands of people with little knowledge.  So can chainsaws, but that doesn't mean we should go back to using axes.