Green Energy Revolution Megathread

[CountDeMoney]

Why are British tree so comparatively bad?

Increased ammonia content along Mongers' bike trails.

[Valmy]

And see here I was moaning that we had had several 38C and 39C days.

[Zanza]

Tesla showed their Model 3 now, provided an options list and clearer delivery forecasts. It all looks more conventional now as their promised ramp up is slower than claimed before and the options to make the car desirable come at a considerable extra price and it is obvious where they cut corners to get to the low base price point. Still an important milestone towards an electrified mass market and will be interesting how well it sells and if they can earn money with the car.
The extremely minimalist interior is actually the most intriguing feature for me. Very different from most other cars.

[jimmy olsen]

France and the UK say they will ban the sale of ICE vehicles after 2040

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-autos-idUSKBN1AB0U5

Electric cars win? Britain to ban new petrol and diesel cars from 2040

Kylie MacLellan and Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2040 in an attempt to reduce air pollution that could herald the end of over a century of reliance on the internal combustion engine.

Britain's step, which follows France, amounts to a victory for electric cars that if copied globally could hit the wealth of oil producers, as well as transform car industry jobs and one of the icons of 20th Century capitalism: the automobile itself.

The mayors of Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens have said they plan to ban diesel vehicles from city centers by 2025, while the French government also aims to end the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040.

The British government has been under pressure to take steps to reduce air pollution after losing legal cases brought by campaign groups. Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives had pledged to make "almost every car and van" zero-emission by 2050.

"There should be no new diesel or petrol vehicles by 2040," environment minister Michael Gove told BBC Radio. The ban would only apply to conventional rather than hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and combustion engine, Gove's ministry said.

There is a mountain to climb, however.

Electric cars currently account for less than 5 percent of new car registrations in Britain, with drivers concerned about the cost and limited availability of charging points and manufacturers worried about making expensive investments before the demand is there.

"We could undermine the UK's successful automotive sector if we don't allow enough time for the industry to adjust," warned Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

Hawes said there were only 12,000 public charging points in Britain and new power infrastructure would be needed, as well as steps to ensure the power network could cope with large numbers of people seeking to charge vehicles at the same time.

The Future Is Electric?

While many automakers may find it hard to countenance the end of the combustion engine, some have embraced a future where electric vehicles, or perhaps even driverless ones, prevail.

This month, Volvo became the first major traditional automaker to set a date for phasing out vehicles powered solely by the internal combustion engine by saying all its car models launched after 2019 would be electric or hybrids.

[The Minsky Moment]

A bunch of UBS analysts tore apart a Chevy Bolt and were surprised to find that the cost of the underlying components was considerably cheaper than they thought, with considerable opportunity for further cost reduction.  They also think going forward, electric will have an advantage in that powertrains are simpler and more reliable.   GM is still losing money on Bolt, but UBS concluded this was almost entirely due to lack of sufficient scale.  The report says total cost of ownership will reach parity at 2018 - an "inflection point" - and that profitability on the manufacturer side will kick in by 2023.

[Zanza]

"There should be no new diesel or petrol vehicles by 2040," environment minister Michael Gove told BBC Radio. The ban would only apply to conventional rather than hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and combustion engine, Gove's ministry said.

That's a rather big caveat. Most hybrids these days get most of their power from a combustion engine and only very few use the combustion engine as a range extender (e.g. BMW's i3 and i8).

Hawes said there were only 12,000 public charging points in Britain and new power infrastructure would be needed, as well as steps to ensure the power network could cope with large numbers of people seeking to charge vehicles at the same time.

12,000 charging points for a fleet of 36.7 million vehicles shows that huge investments in infrastructure are necessary to make electric cars viable for everybody. Will be interesting if investors see that as a profitable enough business to invest on the necessary scale. Also needs massive amounts of roadwork to build charging point along the roadsides.

While many automakers may find it hard to countenance the end of the combustion engine, some have embraced a future where electric vehicles, or perhaps even driverless ones, prevail.

I am pretty sure the entire industry has accepted that by now.

[Zanza]

A bunch of UBS analysts tore apart a Chevy Bolt and were surprised to find that the cost of the underlying components was considerably cheaper than they thought, with considerable opportunity for further cost reduction.  They also think going forward, electric will have an advantage in that powertrains are simpler and more reliable.   GM is still losing money on Bolt, but UBS concluded this was almost entirely due to lack of sufficient scale.  The report says total cost of ownership will reach parity at 2018 - an "inflection point" - and that profitability on the manufacturer side will kick in by 2023.

By 2023 all manufacturers will have a sizeable portfolio of electric vehicles and probably also the factories to make sufficient amounts of batteries or suppliers who do it for them. Going into the market much earlier is hard for most companies as they can't afford to burn money on each car like e.g. Tesla. The investors in traditional car makers wouldn't stand for the kind of losses Tesla makes. But it will be interesting if Tesla can achieve the necessary scale to be profitable ahead of others because of their focus on electric powertrains instead of multiple powertrain variants.

[jimmy olsen]

Forbes thinks that the Model 3 is a gamr changer

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/driving-tesla-s-model-3-changes-everything

Telsa battaries to be used in off shore wind farm
https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/01/offshore-u-s-wind-farm-proposal-uses-tesla-batteries-to-store-power/

[viper37]

12,000 charging points for a fleet of 36.7 million vehicles shows that huge investments in infrastructure are necessary to make electric cars viable for everybody. Will be interesting if investors see that as a profitable enough business to invest on the necessary scale. Also needs massive amounts of roadwork to build charging point along the roadsides.

isn't it in Germany where some highways were converted to recharge electric cars as they drive?  Or was it only a plan for the future?

[mongers]

12,000 charging points for a fleet of 36.7 million vehicles shows that huge investments in infrastructure are necessary to make electric cars viable for everybody. Will be interesting if investors see that as a profitable enough business to invest on the necessary scale. Also needs massive amounts of roadwork to build charging point along the roadsides.

isn't it in Germany where some highways were converted to recharge electric cars as they drive? Or was it only a plan for the future?

No those are landing strip lights for flying cars.

[viper37]

ah that was England:
http://www.iflscience.com/technology/england-test-electric-motorways-charge-electric-cars/

[Tamas]

What about the batteries and the electricity necessary for electric cars? sure they are not an issue now when its an upper middle class trendy thing, but when all cars will have them? Those acid-laden batteries and all that extra electricity will have to be produced somewhere.

[The Brain]

What about the batteries and the electricity necessary for electric cars? sure they are not an issue now when its an upper middle class trendy thing, but when all cars will have them? Those acid-laden batteries and all that extra electricity will have to be produced somewhere.

OK doubting Tamas.

[viper37]

What about the batteries and the electricity necessary for electric cars? sure they are not an issue now when its an upper middle class trendy thing, but when all cars will have them? Those acid-laden batteries and all that extra electricity will have to be produced somewhere.

like Zanza said, by 2040, there will already be a huge supply chains for batteries.
If we look at the trend from past years, there's a lot of progress on this side, and batteries last ever longer before needing a replacement, and I think since the first Tesla, the cost of a battery has fallen by half.  In 20 years it might be a trivial costs as there are more&more manufacturers making them.  It might also happen that they don't need to be replaced for 20 years.  Right now, the battery in a Volt will last 10 years or 150 000 miles (94 000km).

Source: http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/4802/how-long-do-electric-car-batteries-really-last

As for electricity generation, it will require a global solution accross many countries.  In large countries like the US and Canada, where geography allows us to use less polluting forms of energy in many places, we'll have to cooperate among provinces to abandon coal or diesel generators where they can't use anything else and instead increase production in provinces where solar, wind or hydro-power can work. 

In Europe, they could build solar farms in Norther Africa and Southern Europe and use hydro and wind power in the North and integrate both systems so that they never have to rely on blackouts to sustain the demand.

I have no idea how far we can "push" electricity without generating significant losses in power that it becomes economically unviable though.  I don't think Quebec could produce electricity and send it up to BC, or even Alberta, but we could generate enough for the Maritimes.  Not that it would happen, though.  English Canadians would prefer to suffer total blackness and pay a thousand times more for their failed hydro-project rather than accept Quebec's electricity (see Muskrat Falls).  Fortunately, Americans are more open minded about that.

[Eddie Teach]

Ewww, French electricity...