Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

Then you've got Scotland, the South East, the East and the South West of England. Those areas are all roughly at the level of Italy as a whole or mid-income bits of France or Germany. Then you've got the North-West, North-East, the Midlands, Northern Ireland and Wales. In GDP terms they're roughly between Portugal and Spain or some of the bits of Southern Italy and East Germany, they've a similar GDP per capita to Abruzzo or Saxony.

It's this last region that Theresa May needs to take care about, not the City. These were the people that voted for Brexit and they did so to make themselves heard. If you don't adress their frustrations, you'll face a nastier protest from that region in the future. It's too bad because I don't think that anything the EU did or didn't had a major influence on the depressed economic situation in those parts of the UK. It was always a domestic matter. So like you complained that now the EU is talking about reforms that might have kept Britain in, you could just as well complain that only now that you made a massive change to your foreign policy politicians start to address a domestic issue that has brewed for the last 3 decades or so.

[Sheilbh]

It's this last region that Theresa May needs to take care about, not the City. These were the people that voted for Brexit and they did so to make themselves heard. If you don't adress their frustrations, you'll face a nastier protest from that region in the future. It's too bad because I don't think that anything the EU did or didn't had a major influence on the depressed economic situation in those parts of the UK. It was always a domestic matter. So like you complained that now the EU is talking about reforms that might have kept Britain in, you could just as well complain that only now that you made a massive change to your foreign policy politicians start to address a domestic issue that has brewed for the last 3 decades or so.

I agree economically, but I don't think that's sufficient. I think the EU was a significant factor in the sense these communities had that immigration was out of control - regardless of whether it was too high or not that it was no longer something we could influence as a country. It's that sense of cultural alienation from London but also from Brussels that I think motivated the vote rather than actual material circumstances.

There's an element of 'what's wrong with Kansas' and 'clinging to Gods and guns' in a lot of the Remain analysis of these areas. It is a deeper cultural issue - Theresa May rightly pointed out that the group with worst educational attainment in the UK is now white working class boys for example and New Labour pumped money into these areas and did really help their economies but as the Goldsmiths piece I posted earlier said it turns out the issue wasn't redistribution but recognition. I don't know how we go about fixing that and I think that analysis goes for the rest of Europe too (eg. Pas-de-Calais and the FN). If it was just material factors and economics then I think it's easier to fix.

I'm not the sort of Leftie who thinks these people are all being duped by false consciousness and a hostile right-wing media (though that plays its part). I think there is something deeper. I'm very aware that my sort of solutions (infrastructure spending, reforms to attract maybe better teachers, structuring public spending so it's localised and responds to, for example, a sharp rise in immigration in an area) won't help address the cultural issues. I'm also aware that they're very much the sort of thing New Labour did and they're more difficult when we don't have any money left. But as someone who believes in an open, multi-cultural, diverse, globalised country I don't know how we do answer that cultural alienation without significantly compromising on that.

Having said that I do think there were some material factors. Nissan and Toyota said Brexit wouldn't impact their plans and Tata steel blamed EU state aid rules in closing down the steel plants I suspect those factors increased the Leave vote for different reasons in the North-East and South Wales.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Kansas has higher GDP per capita than Britain.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Kansas has higher GDP per capita than Britain.

............and is not in the EU, QED 

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's also almost the size of Britain, any Brts looking to flee the trials of Brexit can probably establish a colony there. Plenty of room. Bible study mandatory and I hope you aren't attached to any geography other than endless flat plains.

[dps]

There was also an attitude that the area had been neglected and not thought about; and satisfaction that "they" would have to do some work to sort things out. There seemed to be no conception that future developments could affect them adversely at all.

Let Britain slowly slide into poverty and irrelevance. If someone consciously chooses suicide, let them.

If Britain is really sliding towards poverty, I don't think it matters all that much if they're in or out of the EU.  And as far as international relevance is concerned, the more the EU integrates, the less relevant a Britain within the EU would be.

[frunk]

If Britain is really sliding towards poverty, I don't think it matters all that much if they're in or out of the EU.  And as far as international relevance is concerned, the more the EU integrates, the less relevant a Britain within the EU would be.

If Britain is sliding toward poverty it would probably make a great deal of difference to its citizens if they were inside the EU or not.  They'll be able to take advantage of the free movement to flee to the continent.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. Even if we're sliding into poverty I really doubt we'd manage to pick up another language  

[Zanza]

I think Project Fear was always overblown. Even if the British economy grows a percentage point or two less over the next decade due to Brexit, that won't make Britain slide into poverty. I would expect that the British economy will grow faster than the EU27 on average. But I fear it won't reach the people that voted for Brexit.

[dps]

If Britain is really sliding towards poverty, I don't think it matters all that much if they're in or out of the EU.  And as far as international relevance is concerned, the more the EU integrates, the less relevant a Britain within the EU would be.

If Britain is sliding toward poverty it would probably make a great deal of difference to its citizens if they were inside the EU or not.  They'll be able to take advantage of the free movement to flee to the continent.

No, because if Britain is sliding toward poverty, the rest of Europe's going to be headed that way at least as quickly--more so in the case of some of the economically less developed EU nations.  And if I were a Brit looking to emigrate, I'd pick the US or one of the Dominions over anywhere in Europe, anyway.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

[frunk]

No, because if Britain is sliding toward poverty, the rest of Europe's going to be headed that way at least as quickly--more so in the case of some of the economically less developed EU nations.  And if I were a Brit looking to emigrate, I'd pick the US or one of the Dominions over anywhere in Europe, anyway.

I don't see how that follows.  Different areas, even in places with a stronger union like the US, end up having different economic trajectories.  See the rust belt and rise of rural poverty.  Would those areas be better off if the people had fewer options for places to move?  Is the economy of Germany the same as Hungary?  It's a mistake to assume that everywhere will progress or regress the same.

The posited scenario was Britain sliding into poverty.  If you are claiming that the whole EU is also doomed I think you are talking a global economic meltdown.  At that point it probably wouldn't matter where you went, but as a person I'd always prefer to have more options rather than less for places to easily move to.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Project Fear was always overblown. Even if the British economy grows a percentage point or two less over the next decade due to Brexit, that won't make Britain slide into poverty. I would expect that the British economy will grow faster than the EU27 on average. But I fear it won't reach the people that voted for Brexit.

That's probably accurate, but I'm not sure what will really hope "globalization's losers" anywhere in the West. Like what realistically helps a 50 year old out of work steel worker in Pittsburgh or Britain for that matter? Their best option is to get on the dole and wait for death, because most of these people are simple never going to acquire the skills necessary to succeed in the modern economy.

Hamilcar's claim of a slide to poverty is hyperbolic, Britain is a quite rich country and likely to get richer over time, not poorer. The economic argument against Brexit is Britain would probably have been richer still if it had stayed in the EU, but by say, 2030 I expect Britain will be more prosperous than it is today. Just like you say, they'll have lost a few % of GDP growth due to this decision.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

One of my nieces is engaged to a British guy she met in DC, he was here working in a financial firm and has a CFA. They actually moved to London two years ago (her company was willing to get her an internal transfer visa as they have London operations), if they move anywhere because of Brexit it'll be back to the U.S.

[garbon]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

One of my nieces is engaged to a British guy she met in DC, he was here working in a financial firm and has a CFA. They actually moved to London two years ago (her company was willing to get her an internal transfer visa as they have London operations), if they move anywhere because of Brexit it'll be back to the U.S.

Seems like a non-telling anecdote but okay.