Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is all arguable but for some years the UK created as many jobs as the rest of the EU combined :

https://fullfact.org/europe/has-uk-created-more-jobs-rest-eu-combined/

If there was a plethora of opportunities for working-class Brits on the continent then perhaps the complaints would be more muted.

[jimmy olsen]

I'm also expect some last minute concessions to be hammered out over the weekend.  it. We're certainly no Greece with regards to negotiating leverage, and Germany does stand to lose a lot if we do leave.

Lets see:

If UK leaves, Germany risks losing 7% exports, and guaranteed to create the EU's financial market capital in Frankfurt

If the UK stays due to last minute desperate German concessions, Germany will be guaranteed to keep 7% exports, guaranteed to keep losing the EU financial market to the UK, and will be guaranteed to raise up the spirit of unrest and "give us this or we leave!" demands from a number of EU states.

I am sorry but it is not going to happen. Germany lives on Russian gas and exports shitton of stuff there yet they were willing to go for the embargos. They are NOT going to risk EU integrity to cater for arrogant British demands.

Hasn't their reliance on Russian gas crated due to the rise in Green energy? I'm sure I posted an article on that in the Clean energy thread.

[Monoriu]

Hasn't their reliance on Russian gas crated due to the rise in Green energy? I'm sure I posted an article on that in the Clean energy thread.

In 2015, Gazprom Export supplied 158.56 billion cubic meters of gas to European countries. Western European countries accounted for approximately 82% of the company's exports from Russia, while Central European states took 18%.

http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/statistics/

[Gups]

I think it is quite simple at root. EU membership benefits the one group and has negative effects on the other. The complaints of the lower half have been ignored for many years and now they will take their chance and make their protest.

It seems a little contradictory to me to complain on the one hand that only educated professionals can take advantage of the open borders and on the other that too many uneducated working class types are taking advantage of the open borders to come to the UK.

It's not that so much. More that middle class people (like me) benefit from cheap Polish builders, child care etc while working class people see their wages stagnate.

[Martinus]

I think it is quite simple at root. EU membership benefits the one group and has negative effects on the other. The complaints of the lower half have been ignored for many years and now they will take their chance and make their protest.

It seems a little contradictory to me to complain on the one hand that only educated professionals can take advantage of the open borders and on the other that too many uneducated working class types are taking advantage of the open borders to come to the UK.

Not really contradictory. An English nurse displaced by a Polish nurse cannot take advantage of a freed up banker job in the City.

[Tamas]

Yeah but if all companies had to pay a high enough salary for low level jobs that native Englishmen get off their arses and actually get a job, then prices would rise and nobody would be better off.

Plus, let's not act like these immigrants are surviving here via photosynthesis: they eat, they sleep, they need clothing, entertainment, their hair cut, etc. They create demand not just supply.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Englishmen doing the low level jobs would be better off, the rest of us would be worse off.

[Martinus]

The Englishmen doing the low level jobs would be better off, the rest of us would be worse off.

Yup - despite Tamas refusing to acknowledge it, it's not the case of "everybody being better off in the EU".

[Tamas]

The Englishmen doing the low level jobs would be better off, the rest of us would be worse off.

Would they? Like, noticably?

Also, regarding that: how easy it is for Commonwealth migrants to come in and take jobs? Because I must admit, when I go about my daily life, the low level jobs I encounter (apart from pub personnel maybe) are predominantly taken by Asians.

So, if you bar East European entry from your job market, won't the positions be just taken by Commonwealth migrants, causing, if anything, a salary move downwards?

[Tamas]

The Englishmen doing the low level jobs would be better off, the rest of us would be worse off.

Yup - despite Tamas refusing to acknowledge it, it's not the case of "everybody being better off in the EU".

Did Milo post something about supporting Brexit? I missed it.

[Martinus]

The whole Breitbart/alt-right crowd is pro-Brexit. But I am not and I stated this several times before. But I think your emotional tantrums and refusal to acknowledge that within the UK there are both those who benefited and those who are worse off, is just silly.

Are you saying that Richard Haykluyt is also an alt-right fan? Because I agree with what he says on the topic 100%.

[Jaron]

Tamas,

I have a question for you.

If Britain exited the EU, would that have any ramifications for you?

Would your residency in the UK be at risk?

I think you've had great success in the last couple of years professionally and in your personal life. It'd be a great tragedy to see you go back to tech support and dodging goats on your way to work.

[Martinus]

The Englishmen doing the low level jobs would be better off, the rest of us would be worse off.

Would they? Like, noticably?

Also, regarding that: how easy it is for Commonwealth migrants to come in and take jobs? Because I must admit, when I go about my daily life, the low level jobs I encounter (apart from pub personnel maybe) are predominantly taken by Asians.

So, if you bar East European entry from your job market, won't the positions be just taken by Commonwealth migrants, causing, if anything, a salary move downwards?

I may be wrong but I don't think that Commonwealth migrants have an automatic entry into the UK - I believe they are subject to migrant quotas and go through some sort of application process, so the UK retains more control on what kind of people they want in.

Plus, I would assume that, as with Muslim immigrants into the US, the fact that Commonwealth migrants into the UK, these tend to be rather middle class people coming to perform professional jobs like doctors or accountants; and not people who compete for lowest wage/menial jobs.

[Tamas]

What I am saying is that "the lowest social strata is the worst off" is for me not a very convincing argument because the lowest strata, by definition, will always be the worst off.


I understand the argument that mass immigration is a big pressure on them, but I think this low level limited disadvantage on the short term is worth the long term advantages.

Also, I have two problems with the notion that closing the borders from workforce coming in can meaningfuly increase wages on a broad spectrum.
One is what I already mentioned. If there is a de facto raise of the general minimum wage, then two things happen: the amount ofavailable money rises, as well as costs, so prices WILL rise, reducing the positive impact of such a change, maybe to the point of being irrelevant.

The second is that in today's world no country can have a healthy economy in perfect isolation. If the factories will see a significant rise in costs due to wages, they will just move themselves abroad where the cheap workforce is.

Thirdly, the downward pressure on wages, if exists, can't go on forever. ESPECIALLY not with European immigrants who have about the same standards of living for themselves as Brits, and more importantly, have more or less functioning social safety nets waiting for them in their home countries as well, where all their connections and family etc are.

[Tamas]

Tamas,

I have a question for you.

If Britain exited the EU, would that have any ramifications for you?

Would your residency in the UK be at risk?

I think you've had great success in the last couple of years professionally and in your personal life. It'd be a great tragedy to see you go back to tech support and dodging goats on your way to work.

No I would be fine until UKIP needs a new shtick, and the unavoidable economic uncertainty and decline following the years of Brexit (this is inevitable in my opinion, even if Brexit ends up being an astonishing economic success in the long term), would point out East Europeans as the scourge still present despite the miracle-medicine of Brexit already having happened.
Now THEN my well being would be directly linked to the economic success of Brexit.