Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Brazen]

35 Reasons To Vote #Leave from HuffPost (set irony detectors to 11):
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/johnny-rich/35-reasons-to-vote-leave_b_10322446.html

[The Minsky Moment]

There's no policy the Tories could decide and unite on. There is no majority (except remain), so regardless our stance would end up needing pro-EU Labour or SNP votes. I think it'd have to be set in the Commons not the cabinet.

Not exactly reassuring.
An at outsider*, it's hard to see the logic in blowing up a long-standing institutional relationship which overall has worked pretty well for Britain, go back to square 1, where the plan on square 2 is to attempt to reconstitute 70%+ of what you just blew up, except on worse terms than before.  You would have to attach a awful lot of importance to that other 30%. 

Only problem is that even among Leave there isn't much agreement as to hierarchy within that 30% or even which things are in the 30%.  The FT had an editorial a few days back pointing out the split within Leave between liberal radicals who want to make Britain into the Singapore of the North Sea, and nostalgic Little Englander types that want to turn back the clock to cozy old statist Britain.  His point was that at least one of those groups will end up disappointed.  In point of fact, I think it will be both.

* As a Yank, I admit to bias as the US is better off with UK in than out.

[Tamas]

This is Europe, mate. Kicking ourselves in the nuts for irrational reasons is what we do.

[The Minsky Moment]

This is Europe, mate. Kicking ourselves in the nuts for irrational reasons is what we do.

Ok.
But that's not the best slogan for Remain I could think of.

[Tamas]

This is Europe, mate. Kicking ourselves in the nuts for irrational reasons is what we do.

Ok.
But that's not the best slogan for Remain I could think of.

I meant that for the Leave side, which I am now expecting to win

[Tamas]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

[mongers]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Defeatist Continental twaddle Tamas 

Its a shit club, but a shit club is better than no club at all........VOTE REMAIN!!!

[The Minsky Moment]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

The first though is more authentically British than the second, which frankly sounds suspiciously American.

[The Larch]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Tamas]Half empty? Luxury! Back in Hungary our glasses are only filled to one fifth, if we're lucky![/Tamas]

[Valmy]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

The first though is more authentically British than the second, which frankly sounds suspiciously American.

The Gloria Britannia crowd is always there lurking.

[The Larch]

No single market for you!, says Dr. Nein.

No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says
In Der Spiegel interview German finance minister rules out Britain's chances of enjoying bloc benefits from outside EU

Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

"That won't work," Schäuble told Der Spiegel. "It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

"If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people."

The German conservative's intervention seems to rule out the "reverse Maastricht" option floated privately by some British MPs and government sources, whereby pro-remain MPs in Westminster could use their parliamentary majority to retain access to the single market after a British exit from the EU.

Their first target is likely to be to try to ensure that despite a Brexit the UK could remain in the single market by joining the European economic area, of which the non-EU countries Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland are currently members.

The single market – to which Switzerland also has access despite not being a member of either the EU or the EEA – guarantees the free movement of people, goods and services inside the bloc.

Supporters of the British Leave campaign argue that it is in Germany's economic interest to maintain barrier-free trade relations with the United Kingdom. Britain is the third largest export market for German car manufacturers, and the destination of around 7% of total German exports.

But commentators in Germany point out that Germany has more to lose from a Brexit than a segment of its export market, and that the government was able sideline economic interest to diplomacy in its relationship with Russia.

Until recently, the assumption in Berlin's political circles had been that Schäuble's finance ministry was more open than others to the idea of keeping open a back door for renegotiating some form of associate membership for Britain after an out vote.

But the interview in Der Spiegel, which will be published on Saturday but has been seen by the Guardian, indicates a less flexible stance.

"Europe will also work without Britain if necessary," Schäuble said. "At some point, the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision. And then we will accept them back one day, if that's what they want."

The Christian Democrat, seen as the key actor behind Germany's hardline stance towards Greece at the height of the eurozone debt crisis, said he and his counterparts in the eurozone would "do everything possible to contain these consequences".

"We are preparing for all possible scenarios to limit the risks," he added.

While warning that it would be a "miracle" if there were no economic drawbacks for Britain following a withdrawal, Schäuble also admitted that a Brexit could have dramatic consequences for the rest of the European Union.

The 73-year-old said it could not be ruled out that other countries could follow Britain's lead after the referendum on 23 June: "How, for example, would the Netherlands react, as a country that has traditionally had very close ties to Britain? It is important for the EU to send the message that it has understood the vote and is prepared to learn from it."

Schäuble also poured cold water on suggestions that France and Germany would react to Britain's departure from the 28-member bloc with a leap towards accelerated integration. On the contrary, he said, it was important that the EU needed to show that it could learn from the British referendum.

"In response to Brexit, we couldn't simply call for more integration," he is quoted as saying. "That would be crude; many would rightfully wonder ­whether we politicians still haven't understood.

"Even in the event that only a small majority of the British voters reject a withdrawal, we would have to see it as a wake-up call and a warning not to continue with business as usual. Either way, we have to take a serious look at reducing bureaucracy in Europe."

The British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne, who has played a leading role in the remain campaign, tweeted that it was a "major intervention from Germany: UK would have to accept free movement and pay in to EU to continue to access trade"

Schäuble's comments come on the same day that German chancellor Angela Merkel repeated her hope that Britain would vote to remain in the EU.

Speaking on Friday to a group representing family-owned businesses, Merkel said: "From my point of view, Great Britain remaining in the European Union is the best and most desirable thing for us all.''

She added: "We have very close cooperation on many questions with Great Britain, and would of course like to continue this within the framework of the European Union.''

Der Spiegel, which sells around 800,000 copies per issue, has upped its circulation in the UK for Saturday's special bilingual edition, and reduced the cover price from £5.20 to £2. The cover carries the headline in German and English: "Please don't go!"

In an editorial, the magazine argues that while it is too late "to convince the British to love the EU, perhaps we should use this opportunity to mention how much the rest of Europe admires them. It's unbelievable that they don't seem to see how much they've shaped the continent, how much we value them here, how close we Germans feel to them".

"Germany has always looked across the Channel with some degree of envy," it adds. "On our emotional map of Europe, the Italians were responsible for love and good food, the French for beauty and elegance and the Brits for nonchalance and progress. They have an inner independence that we Germans lack, in addition to myriad anti-authoritarian, defiant tendencies. A lot of what happened in Britain spilled over to us sooner or later, reinforcing our cultural ties."

In a homage to British cultural exports ranging from "James Bond to Twiggy's haircut", the magazine's staff writers said they wanted to offer Britain a "firm handshake, coupled with an honest, straightforward appeal: remain".

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

[Valmy]

It was rather delusional to think that Britain could keep access to the market while leaving the EU. If the EU allowed that well the whole thing might collapse.

[Martinus]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

We have doctors from Ukraine, Belarus, Syria and East Asia.

It's turtles all the way down.

[Martinus]

Germany, saving Europeans from their own electorates, one country at a time.