Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm just saying that there is more than one way to skin a cat and that brexit would not lead to some miserable third world existence for the UK.

I don't care for all the fear arguments at all, or the rather pointless penny-pinching arguments, I think it comes down to temperament. I want the UK to stay in the EU and I want the UK to try and help improve the EU. Others want to leave and go back to buying their butter for 2/6 from New Zealand; or, if you are Boris, want to be PM.

[Jacob]

You could reduce the number of expensive Spanish nurses coming over and maybe get cheaper ones from the Philippines 

That reminds me of the apparent stance of these people that it is much more welcome to take immigrants from Asia than from Europe. I genuinly wonder if indeed they have a lower opinion of Eastern Europeans than, say Pakistanis, or it is just that it's safer to be racist when the subject is white and Christian.

It's probably a combination of the most recent noticeable immigration is from Eastern Europe. The British public has had longer to adjust to, say, Pakistani immigrants in large numbers.

[Jacob]

You are confusing things....

Fair enough.

My main point was that Tyr and people in similar positions are not unreasonable in worrying that their work situation might change for the worse in case of Brexit, contrary to what CM suggested.

[Gups]

You could reduce the number of expensive Spanish nurses coming over and maybe get cheaper ones from the Philippines 

That reminds me of the apparent stance of these people that it is much more welcome to take immigrants from Asia than from Europe. I genuinly wonder if indeed they have a lower opinion of Eastern Europeans than, say Pakistanis, or it is just that it's safer to be racist when the subject is white and Christian.

It's probably a combination of the most recent noticeable immigration is from Eastern Europe. The British public has had longer to adjust to, say, Pakistani immigrants in large numbers.

Well, either that, or the premise isn't true. I've never heard a Polack joke in the UK.

[garbon]

You could reduce the number of expensive Spanish nurses coming over and maybe get cheaper ones from the Philippines 

That reminds me of the apparent stance of these people that it is much more welcome to take immigrants from Asia than from Europe. I genuinly wonder if indeed they have a lower opinion of Eastern Europeans than, say Pakistanis, or it is just that it's safer to be racist when the subject is white and Christian.

It's probably a combination of the most recent noticeable immigration is from Eastern Europe. The British public has had longer to adjust to, say, Pakistani immigrants in large numbers.

Well, either that, or the premise isn't true. I've never heard a Polack joke in the UK.

What does that prove, McSnoot?

[Josquius]

I'm just saying that there is more than one way to skin a cat and that brexit would not lead to some miserable third world existence for the UK.

I don't care for all the fear arguments at all, or the rather pointless penny-pinching arguments, I think it comes down to temperament. I want the UK to stay in the EU and I want the UK to try and help improve the EU. Others want to leave and go back to buying their butter for 2/6 from New Zealand; or, if you are Boris, want to be PM.

Sadly altruism and bringing the east up to our level (well, the south's level anyway) doesn't sell well

[celedhring]

Isn't also the NHS quite fetishized in the British mindset, in a way that makes any setback to be blown out of proportion?

Yep. The media, especially the BBC never shut up about the fucking NHS.

Do I sense some exasperation?   

Btw, I think it must also be taken into account that the EU has been beneficial for the NHS in that it has allowed it to be staffed by other EU nationals. For years nurses have been recruited in droves in Spain (and I guess in other countries as well) to staff British hospitals, for instance. I don't know where I read that EU nationals were something like 10% of all the NHS' doctors, with non EU doctors holding an even higher %. It seems to be that the NHS is quite dependant on qualified inmigrants to be properly staffed.

Conversely, I'm seeing a big increase of Eastern Europeans in Spain's own healthcare system. The trauma doctor at my hospital is Hungarian, and they recently hired a Polish dentist.

The circle of (sanitary) life.

[Valmy]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

[frunk]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

Doctors without Borders.

[Valmy]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

Doctors without Borders.

Man it just loops around. Amazing.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

Doctors without Borders.

Man it just loops around. Amazing.

lol

---
I wonder if the brexiteers are aware that the ghost of Wellington will come to slap them around in case the vote is in favour of leaving.

[The Minsky Moment]

Leavers would argue (rightly I think) that there would be nothing to stop the UK from recruiting in Spain and elsewhere whether we were in the EU or not

Nothing except the restrictions on migration that are supposed to put in place once the obstacle of the EU is gone.
But this gets at the fallacy inherent the leave position: the idea that ex post one can easily cobble together most of the benefits of being in the EU without any of the supposed disadvantages.  In reality there is no way to do that without accepting back many of the same kinds of compromises and restrictions prompting demands for exit, with the added downside of eliminating any inside voice on EU policy.

Leaving may not be disaster, but it would be an historic own goal. 

[Zanza]

So who is left in the country at the bottom of the system to provide medical care to the locals?

https://next.ft.com/content/70813826-0c64-33d3-8a0c-72059ae1b5e3

Eastern Europe has the largest population loss in modern history



Eastern Europe's population is shrinking like no other regional population in modern history.

The population has declined dramatically in war ridden countries like Syria as well as in some advanced economies in peacetime, like Japan. But a population drop throughout a whole region and over decades has never been observed in the world since the 1950s with the exception of Southern Europe in the last five years and Eastern Europe over the last 25 consecutive years.

The UN estimated that there were about 292 million people in Eastern Europe last year, 18 million less than in the early 1990s, that's more than the population of the Netherlands disappearing from the region. The fall corresponds to a drop of six per cent, give or take.

The contraction began after the fall of the Soviet bloc and accelerated until the early 2000s when it began to slow down.



Emigration

Emigration is one of the main reasons behind the decline. Eastern Europeans migrated to Western Europe, enticed by the prospect of higher earnings and better welfare systems. The main destinations for Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians were the UK and Ireland. Estonians left for Finland, Romanians went to Italy and Spain. More recently, Norway has emerged as a popular destination.

But this is not only a story of emigration made possible by the enlargement of the European Union. People from the region had begun emigrating even before Accession, and countries that are not part of the union have also seen a strong outflow.

Romania, for example, lost 9 per cent of its population in the fifteen years to 2005. In 1990 alone, nearly 100,000 Romanian citizens settled permanently abroad, with similar figures in the following few years. According to an OECD report, in the early days Romanian emigration largely concerned ethnic minorities. Most recently, it's been job seekers. By 2007- the year in which Romania joined the EU- the majority of Romanian emigrants had already left the country.

Similarly, Bulgaria- which joined the EU in the same year- had a net migration rate of over eight per thousand in the first half of the 1990s, which progressively decreased to just over 1 per thousand in the last five years.

Albania, which is not an EU member, experienced an even larger outflow of migrants.



[...]

The narrowing of the wealth gap – more effective

Most Eastern European economies are growing at an incredibly rapid pace, largely because they're catching up.

What this means is that the difference in GDP per capita with Western Europe is narrowing. Broadly speaking, improving conditions in the region should reduce the incentives to emigrate. Better job opportunities and higher wealth should also lead to higher fertility rates.

The GDP per capita of the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia is now about eighty per cent or over that of the European Union. It used to be 50 per cent in Slovakia in the mid-1990s.



All these countries have seen their populations expand in the last decade.

But in poorer countries like Romania, Bulgaria, and Albania the size of the population is still declining.

[Josquius]

Truly it's now or never for the brexiters.
Another referendum in 10 years and their scary immigration stick is gone

[Zanza]

People being pissed off with the establishment will still be around in 10 years, so I don't think it is now or never. However, if Britain remains now, I expect no new referendum for 10-15 years at least. Probably only in more than 25 years unless something dramatic changes.