Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

To take a page from the Marty playbook, I think my Referendum vote will be decided by what outcome annoys Garbon the most. 

[garbon]

To take a page from the Marty playbook, I think my Referendum vote will be decided by what outcome annoys Garbon the most. 

I don't really have a stake in this battle. I mean I don't really want to see the sterling tank but then not being cockblocked by EU nationals sure would make it easier for me to find other positions in the UK.

[Zanza]

But it's also the direction of travel. I used to be very Europhile in the 90s and the early 00s because I think the direction we were going in was more positive. I think it was open to the world, while still trying to integrate and to create a distinctive European model. Now it seems very insular, I think it's strengthening populism (and again UKIP got 14% - look at the polls in the Netherlands, France, Italy) and I don't see any positive European model that we're working towards.

Right now we've got member states facing a genuine humanitarian issue on the border of Europe and the response is just to say Islam has no place in their country and they have to prevent the creation of a Muslim community there. Similarly we're six years into the Eurozone crisis and no closer to any change of policy. Finland a fiscal saint, facing external shocks to their economy is having to impose idiotic pro-cyclical policies because of the Euro and, unlike in the 90s, their currency can't depreciate 40%. I don't see any left wing argument for a Europe that's going in this direction, but I think there are pragmatic reasons to stay in for now. If, in ten years, we're still a Europe of Fico and Schaeuble then I think we should leave. That's not a club I'd want to be part of.

The alternative to the neoliberal EU we have no is not some kind of socialist EU. The alternative is newly nationalist nation states where you may no longer have the Euro, but the part about closing the borders and being anti-Islam is going to be stronger than ever. And it will be more insular and less open to the world than the current neoliberal EU. Is it strengthening populism? Maybe. But dissolving it would just make this populism win.

[Sheilbh]

The alternative to the neoliberal EU we have no is not some kind of socialist EU. The alternative is newly nationalist nation states where you may no longer have the Euro, but the part about closing the borders and being anti-Islam is going to be stronger than ever. And it will be more insular and less open to the world than the current neoliberal EU. Is it strengthening populism? Maybe. But dissolving it would just make this populism win.

There is no alternative?

And is populism really losing when Wilders and Le Pen are both leading in the polling? Obviously neither will take office (but then, obviously, Trump would never be the nominee...) but especially in the Eurozone the centre is being destroyed. It's Weimar when you have countries like the Netherlands where according to the polls the leading party on the right is Wilders' (around 40%) and the leading party on the left is the once Maoist Socialist Party (15-20%). If that's populism losing, I'm willing to chance the other option.

I think the Euro needs full fiscal and banking union or dissolution. I don't think any other option will work.

Personally sitting outside Schengen I don't think that borders are necessarily a bad thing which I know goes against the good old days of the European project. But I think there's more chance of countries accepting immigration, whether necessary economic migration or taking refugees, if they feel that they, the nation, are in control of their borders.

I really hope the EU does reform itself sufficient that I could be a Europhile again, but I don't see it happening. I think it's going to carry on the current route. It'll be more sub-par economic performance, more communities getting left behind and feeling disempowered and unconnected to their barely legitimate governors. The opinions of those communities being considered beyond the pale, whether it's against immigration or angry at economic or trade policy. And in the Lipsius they'll wonder why everyone's voting for monstrous populist parties rather than letting them get on with, I don't know, deregulating capital markets or harmonising widget sizes.

Edit: I never thought I'd say it but I really do think Tony Benn and Corbyn were right about this

[Zanza]

Populism isn't losing, but it is not yet winning either. The answer to this populism can't be to just give up and disband the EU. The answer must be to find a more positive narrative again, to embrace the disenchanted and find answers within the EU to their concerns. I find the idea that disolving the EU now would somehow make the populist go away unconvincing. You mention the rise of populism in the US. Another example is the SVP in Switzerland. Both show that even without the EU, people feel disenchanted and frustrated with the modern world and hope to find their salvation in the simple explanations of populists. One of which is blame everything on the EU.

[Admiral Yi]

Full fiscal union would be one Mediterranean wolf, one Eastern wolf and one Northern sheep deciding what to have for lunch.

[Monoriu]

I see the Leave EU side as basically saying, if you don't let us have part of the cake, then we'll throw the cake away so that none of us can have it. 

[Tamas]

I see the Leave EU side as basically saying, if you don't let us have part of the cake, then we'll throw the cake away so that none of us can have it.

No.

The Leave side is saying "yes we have been eating the cake at the table with you guys but you expect us to behave at said table, which is unacceptable. As a solution, we will throw a tantrum, go home, and then expect you to send us our pieces of cake.

[The Larch]

Is this poster for real?

[garbon]

I just saw that wetherspoons has a guide to both sides of the argument.

May have to go and have a look.

And now they have beer mats supporting exit.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/saraspary/wethersoons-has-made-200000-vote-leave-beer-mats-and-not-eve?utm_term=.wgDENlmwY#.lyDVg9v6Z

Wetherspoon's Has Printed 200,000 Brexit Beer Mats Ahead Of The EU Referendum

Hundreds of thousands of beer mats backing Brexit have appeared in J.D. Wetherspoon pubs today.

The beer mats are the brainchild of the chain's pro-Brexit founder Tim Martin and are accompanied by an EU special of the long-running Wetherspoon's news magazine.

The mats call into question the legitimacy of the pro-Remain International Monetary Fund, saying: "Why should we trust the IMF?" and, "Has the IMF warned the Eurozone that no currency, in history, has survived without a single government?"



Some Wetherspoon's customers congratulated the chain for wading into the debate.

One person tweeted that it was a "great way" to connect with people who felt disengaged.

Others took to the brand's Facebook page to express support and said "I'd drink to that".

But others slammed the move and called for a boycott.

Martin, the chair of the pub chain, told BuzzFeed News it was "perfectly acceptable" for the business to nail its colours to the mast.

He defended the beer mats and said the chain had reprinted eight articles from a variety of political leaders in the EU issue of the chain's in-pub magazine – four making the case for Brexit and four against, to make it balanced.

"On every table in every pub we've put both sides of the story," he said. Articles by David Cameron, Nick Clegg, the late Tony Benn, and Boris Johnson from other sources have been added to the magazine.

Martin said he spent a total of £3,000 on the beer mats, and was "hoping to do other things" in the run-up to the EU referendum on 23 June but hadn't thought of them yet.

"Here's another reason for me to not go to Wetherspoon's," said one, while another called it "badvertising".

[Duque de Bragança]

Bernard Tapie is not really a supporter of Lagarde's or Sarkozy's party. He was Mitterrand's best left-wing minister according to Tonton though.
Tapie is a typical affairiste who was not in bad terms with Sarko for a while and in very good terms with Mitterrand. He's persona non grata with the current PS after being convicted, like many at the PS 

As for the "payment", this arbitration decision was very fishy and is still debated in justice courts.

[Sheilbh]

Latest ICM poll:
Remain: 42% (-5)
Leave: 45% (+6)

It's interesting because so far there's been a big divergence of about ten points between internet and phone polling, which is novel. The internet polls show Leave doing significantly better. ICM are phone polling firm so it's striking. But obviously usual caveats: may just be a rogue poll, taken over a Bank Holiday so less reliable etc.

Populism isn't losing, but it is not yet winning either. The answer to this populism can't be to just give up and disband the EU. The answer must be to find a more positive narrative again, to embrace the disenchanted and find answers within the EU to their concerns. I find the idea that disolving the EU now would somehow make the populist go away unconvincing.

What if their concerns boil down to reducing immigration and changing economic policy?

I basically agree. As I say one of the reasons I'll vote remain is because I think the risks probably outweigh the possible benefits, but if we're in the same position in ten years and the EU hasn't changed then I'll probably be an outer. There is a real problem with the left for Europe - see the collapse of mainstream centre left parties everywhere - that Europe is kind of okay with EU leaders being basically racist and it seems broadly okay  with Orban and creeping authoritarianism, but trying to have an economic policy that's basically anything left of Blair isn't possible. If it doesn't change I think we probably have to stop lying back and thinking of Europe.

You mention the rise of populism in the US. Another example is the SVP in Switzerland. Both show that even without the EU, people feel disenchanted and frustrated with the modern world and hope to find their salvation in the simple explanations of populists. One of which is blame everything on the EU.

I think everywhere it's a function of globalisation, I just think that the EU is a really intense local version of globalisation with an actual elite running things - sort of how I think the Eurozone crisis is in many ways a mini-version of the global financial crisis. The Eurozone especially has sclerotic growth. In real GDP it's still not got to the 2008 peak. It also seems to be diverging into a low growth, low inflation, low interest, high unemployment zone of its own in comparison with the US and the UK (which have different issues). At the same time they've decided to impose and follow very strict rules which means there's really minimal difference between, say, Monti's unelected technocratic government and Renzi; there's not that big a difference between Sarko and Hollande.

Similarly immigration and multi-culturalism are big issues for many people. In both cases these issues have largely been removed from a national or a democratic debate and put on a technocratic, multi-national level. I think populism is largely driven in the UK, US and at least Western Europe, by the people who don't feel the benefits of globalisation. They're not feeling the growth because they're stuck in an area of economic decline. Immigration is a threat in a bad labour market and seems to challenge their status and their culture. Beyond all of that they don't feel able to change it or control it. People like us who enjoy globalisation, I think, feel some level of control in our lives that there's all of these benefits that we're able to take advantage of and that doesn't exist in nearly the same level if your 40 and on a low wage in Middlesbrough, or Calais, or Cleveland.

So I think that drives the appeal for people who are outside the system - of people like us - and who will challenge them. The EU may not be the source of all of their problems but it does profoundly limit the options the mainstream parties have on immigration or economic policy, even in a non-Eurozone country like the UK where the state aid rules are a big problem for the current Labour party.

I think in the UK because of our electoral system (UKIP: 14% - 1 MP) we've generally been a bit better at integrating that populism within the mainstream: there are plenty of Tories who are very near to UKIP and plenty of Labour on the left. I think that's why both we and the US have had the populists take over one of our main parties. My impression is that in (Western) Europe there's more of a keep them out of the mainstream approach - even if ideological enemies have to cooperate, whereas I could never imagine Labour and Tories uniting - which may work, or may just mean that when the levees breech it'll be spectacular.

Is this poster for real?

Based on a Google search it's something people are sharing on social media so my guess is it's not and like 90% of the political things people share on Facebook

[Sheilbh]

Full fiscal union would be one Mediterranean wolf, one Eastern wolf and one Northern sheep deciding what to have for lunch.

Maybe. No more than the US, but it would need similar democratic legitimacy.

That's why I think dissolution is the best and most realistic approach. If you look at the divergence of economies in Scandinavia alone it's really interesting for how much worse the Eurozone countries are doing. I don't know how much lost potential is worth a political ideal.

[Iormlund]

There is a real problem with the left for Europe - see the collapse of mainstream centre left parties everywhere - that Europe is kind of okay with EU leaders being basically racist and it seems broadly okay  with Orban and creeping authoritarianism, but trying to have an economic policy that's basically anything left of Blair isn't possible. If it doesn't change I think we probably have to stop lying back and thinking of Europe.

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but the reason the Left has lost ground here is simply that the Socialists have imploded after terrible governance and extreme corruption.

Whereas in the last 30 years there was only one leftist party that mattered, Leftists can now opt for the Socialists (Andalusian pensioners' party), Podemos (unemployed youth's party) or Ciudadanos (classic liberals).

[mongers]

I'm sensing a Brexit is now a real possibility, thought that's only based on talking to ordinary people and presupposes they stay motivated enough to go out and vote on the 23rd.