Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Iormlund]

Why would British public services like the NHS not scale with more taxpayers? It is all paid as you go anyway, right?

The whole NHS argument is complete bullshit. Are we really arguing that a few million young immigrants strain the NHS more than the hundreds of thousands of retirees that the UK has "exported" in exchange?

[Agelastus]

Why would British public services like the NHS not scale with more taxpayers? It is all paid as you go anyway, right?

The whole NHS argument is complete bullshit. Are we really arguing that a few million young immigrants strain the NHS more than the hundreds of thousands of retirees that the UK has "exported" in exchange?

If they were all in one country, no, I'd be an idiot to even contemplate arguing that.

But they're not all in one country, are they?

And doesn't a lot of their care get charged back to the NHS anyway? Something the NHS is notoriously bad at in return.

Addendum: apparently it did until 2014, anyway, and I can't find where the retirees provision has been cancelled, only that for working age emigrants and early retirees. So the NHS probably still pays for the care of most of our retirees abroad.

[Josquius]

It is true the UK pays more to other countries to cover health care than it recieves back.
But again this isn't the EU's fault, it's the NHS"s failing that they don't do a good enough job of tracking down payments that they're due.
Also perhaps there are just more brits getting ill abroad than Europeans in the UK.

Not sure if pensioners are different but if you're living abroad for 3 months or more you legally have to be on that country's health system. Hence me being forced to pay 200 quid a month for shitty swiss health insurance that I will never use.

[Richard Hakluyt]

This piece from the BBC is one of the best I've seen for showing that some British natives have lost out from immigration from the EU :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36258541

TLDR?

Boston has masses of relatively poorly-paid jobs that are well worth doing from the point of view of unskilled Eastern European workers. The town's average wage is way below both national and regional levels, however the cost of renting is far higher than the regional average. The NHS and education services are also under pressure from the sudden influx of extra people.

If immigrants are causing wages to stay low and unemployment to remain static or rise, then countries with no immigrants and especially those facing emigration should see wages rise and unemployment decrease, neither of which is true.

Not my point Tamas. I'm saying that the immigration does have adverse effects on some Britons, it is not always simply that they are bigoted morons. The rise of idiotic populist parties is tied to this dismissal of their (often precarious) situation. I do think that Osborne's crackdown on the welfare state coupled with the introduction of the national living wage will discourage immigration from less skilled workers, but then the reduction of the welfare state is also something that many do not really want per se.

[Iormlund]

The UK paid Spain €285 million last year to pay for its citizens care here.

To put it into perspective, it amounts to 0.5% of our health spending. There are ~750,000 Brits in Spain, mostly retirees. Over 1.5% of the population. To this you have to add up the well over 10 million tourists from the UK we get a year.

So no, you don't pay what you spend. Not even close. There's at least half a billion missing there.

[Agelastus]

The UK paid Spain €285 million last year to pay for its citizens care here.

To put it into perspective, it amounts to 0.5% of our health spending. There are ~750,000 Brits in Spain, mostly retirees. Over 1.5% of the population. To this you have to add up the well over 10 million tourists from the UK we get a year.

So no, you don't pay what you spend. Not even close. There's at least half a billion missing there.

If the amount we pay is based on the "average of what it costs Spain to provide healthcare to its insured residents", as an official NHS reply states, I don't understand your figures - if they're 1.5% of the population then they should be 1.5% of the health spending, roughly. 

Of course, the official figures for the number of Britons in Spain is between 300 and 380,000, not 750,000. In fact, the most recent data I can find seems to be 309,000 for 2015. Which would agree much more with the amount of money Spain is being paid for their treatment based on your figures.

I'm curious about your figure of 750000; I did find one article in 10 minutes of "google-fu" that made a passing mention of "non-registered Britons" and citing that this made the estimate of British expats in Spain about a million (or three times the official figure they were quoting.) Is registration voluntary or something? And how are the supposed half of Britons without residence cards (from a study quoted in the same article) getting things like medical treatment? The instructions I found were pretty explicit about having to get a certificate saying that you were entitled to free healthcare in Spain from the Spanish TGSS, one of the requirements for which was having a residency certificate.

[Tamas]

So what will happen to these hundreds of thousands of Brits spending retirement in Spain and other EU countries after Brexit?

a) the UK will make a deal to continue as it is now thereby making Brexit meaningless in this regard
b) tens/hundreds of thousands of unprepared British citizens will find themselves having to pay for their healthcare from their own pockets after spending decades paying into the NHS?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I fear that if a brexit vote occurs we will discover that the best solution to the various problems is to join the EU 

If Britain had some statesmen instead of second-rate political hacks then we could have led a program of reform and improvement within the EU, which the place desperately needs after all.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The UK paid Spain €285 million last year to pay for its citizens care here.

To put it into perspective, it amounts to 0.5% of our health spending. There are ~750,000 Brits in Spain, mostly retirees. Over 1.5% of the population. To this you have to add up the well over 10 million tourists from the UK we get a year.

So no, you don't pay what you spend. Not even close. There's at least half a billion missing there.

Of course the retirees are spending their pensions in Spain, pensions paid for by the UK and private schemes based in the UK. I'd be interested to know how much that amount is and to what extent it benefits the wider Spanish economy. Like our immigrants from Eastern Europe I suspect that the British retirees are a net benefit to the host country.

(though not everyone will be thrilled at the idea of hosting a million boozed-up, bright-red Brits who won't even learn the local language)

[Brazen]

Unfortunately like the Scottish independence vote, while out means out for the foreseeable future, an in vote opens the possibility of new referendums every time conditions change.

[Tamas]

As a general rule, direct democracy seems to be a silly idea for any important decisions.

I mean, look at this campaign. Surely, in reality, both decisions have advantages and disadvantages both on the short and the long term, which are hardly up for debate.
But can you hear either side saying "sure, this particular thing would probably be better choosing the opposide side, BUT, it still would be a clear net loss so plz vote on my side".

No, no matter the topic at hand, both sides go full "OMG the other side is destruction regarding this, while our choice would ensure 7th heaven or at very least the status quo regarding it".

It is IMPOSSIBLE to make an informed decision as a regular voter, because there is way too much propaganda and access to real neutral information on the matter is next to impossible to obtain for an average citizen, even assuming one would care enough to go after it.

Now of course such an utter lack of hard data should push everyone to prefer the status quo over the dramatic change, but that is beside the point.

The point is that the UK's fate for the next generation is going to be decided by people voting based on two groups whipping up high emotions to push their own agendas which BTW they hide behind said emotions.

It is a mockery of responsible democracy, and I think it is the British version of the Trump phenomenom.

[Martinus]

Thanks for stating the obvious, Tamas - democracy is bad when it leads to outcomes we don't like.

I think it is very naive to think that, with that popular sentiment going on, the UK would be better off by taking this decision away from the people, though.

The mockery of democracy here is the elites taking a major life changing decision and then failing to convince the people why it is right for them - but instead painting those skeptical as ignorant xenophobes and racists. Happened here, happened with Merkel and the refugees, happened with American establishment and illegal immigrants. Now democracy is back to collect its dues - with interest. And it ain't pretty.

[garbon]

Thanks for stating the obvious, Tamas - democracy is bad when it leads to outcomes we don't like.

I think it is very naive to think that, with that popular sentiment going on, the UK would be better off by taking this decision away from the people, though.

The mockery of democracy here is the elites taking a major life changing decision and then failing to convince the people why it is right for them - but instead painting those skeptical as ignorant xenophobes and racists. Happened here, happened with Merkel and the refugees, happened with American establishment and illegal immigrants. Now democracy is back to collect its dues - with interest. And it ain't pretty.

Childish poster is childish. News at 11.

[Josquius]

The UK paid Spain €285 million last year to pay for its citizens care here.

To put it into perspective, it amounts to 0.5% of our health spending. There are ~750,000 Brits in Spain, mostly retirees. Over 1.5% of the population. To this you have to add up the well over 10 million tourists from the UK we get a year.

So no, you don't pay what you spend. Not even close. There's at least half a billion missing there.

If the amount we pay is based on the "average of what it costs Spain to provide healthcare to its insured residents", as an official NHS reply states, I don't understand your figures - if they're 1.5% of the population then they should be 1.5% of the health spending, roughly. 

Of course, the official figures for the number of Britons in Spain is between 300 and 380,000, not 750,000. In fact, the most recent data I can find seems to be 309,000 for 2015. Which would agree much more with the amount of money Spain is being paid for their treatment based on your figures.

I'm curious about your figure of 750000; I did find one article in 10 minutes of "google-fu" that made a passing mention of "non-registered Britons" and citing that this made the estimate of British expats in Spain about a million (or three times the official figure they were quoting.) Is registration voluntary or something? And how are the supposed half of Britons without residence cards (from a study quoted in the same article) getting things like medical treatment? The instructions I found were pretty explicit about having to get a certificate saying that you were entitled to free healthcare in Spain from the Spanish TGSS, one of the requirements for which was having a residency certificate.

I lived in Sweden for 2 years without being registered with the commune. Only realised I was meant to have done that after a year and a half there
I was registered with the central government and had my official ID number so it caused zero issues.

Considering that brits have the legal right to freely travel to Spain.  Tracking down and deporting those who have technically over stayed the 3 months tourism limit isn't a priority for the Spanish authorities. It would be a waste of resources

As for health treatment in europe - they can just use the European health insurance card.  Charge it to the nhs.

[Agelastus]

Considering that brits have the legal right to freely travel to Spain.  Tracking down and deporting those who have technically over stayed the 3 months tourism limit isn't a priority for the Spanish authorities. It would be a waste of resources

I would draw the conclusion, then, that if it's considered a waste of resources British expatriates can't be costing the Spanish healthcare system etc. enough to concern the Spanish authorities.

As for health treatment in europe - they can just use the European health insurance card.  Charge it to the nhs.

That won't work for long term expatriates since they expire and have to be issued/re-issued by the country of residence, surely? Are you implying that there's long term major fraud in the system that needs to be stamped out?