Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

By the by reporting in the Guardian that the government think the politics is too hard (although this government's approach to politics is reminiscent of Ned Flanders' beatnik parents: "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas") and one option to replace raising the rate of income tax is lowering the thresholds for income tax levels. Which I think shows an astonishingly contemptuous view of the intelligence of the public if they think they'll be able to get away with saying they've not broken a manifesto promise not to raise income tax while doing that.

I'm not saying people are right in expressing a desire to burn it all to the ground, but I sort of feel like that type of tricksy bullshit is the sort of thing the public loathe.

[Josquius]

That would be a moronic policy given inflation and fiscal drag mean by rights they should be going up if anything.
I mean jeez. At least add a new band or something.

[garbon]

Labour to implement Reform-like policies to *checks notes* prevent Reform from coming to power.

Of course, reading BBC comments, posters were ranging from skeptical that Labour can do it, to push harder and faster.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231x8rj1zpo

UK set to limit refugees to temporary stays

People granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, in a major change of policy to be announced by the home secretary on Monday.

Shabana Mahmood is expected to declare that the era of permanent protection for refugees is over, as she seeks to reduce asylum claims and small boat crossings.

Under the plans, those granted asylum will be returned to their home country when it is deemed safe and their status will be regularly reviewed.

Currently, refugee status in the UK lasts for five years, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain and have a route to citizenship.

There are currently some temporary schemes for those fleeing the conflict in Ukraine. This was initially for three years but extensions have been granted.

Government insiders are describing a move to temporary status for all successful asylum seekers as a "significant shift".

The policy has been copied from Denmark, where a government led by the centre-left Social Democrats has presided over one of the toughest asylum and immigration systems in Europe.

In Denmark, refugees are given temporary residence permits, typically of two years, and in effect have to re-apply for asylum when they expire.

A previous presumption in the Danish system to extend permits was scrapped.

Even for those who are allowed to extend multiple times, the route to citizenship has grown longer and harder.

The Danish approach is admired by UK government ministers, including Mahmood, who point out that as the Social Democrat party's immigration policies hardened their poll ratings rose - and those of a populist right-wing movement, the People's Party, fell.

The home secretary believes that unless Labour takes similar decisions then "darker forces" could thrive in the UK.

Last week, the BBC revealed that Mahmood had sent senior Home Office officials to Denmark to see what lessons could be learned from their system.

And it was not just temporary status for refugees that caught the eyes of her officials.

They also looked at Denmark's greater restrictions on "family reunion" - when refugees want to bring their spouses, partners or children to the country.

Mahmood believes Denmark's policies serve as a disincentive for people to seek asylum in the first place and is impressed that successful claims are at a 40-year low.

And she believes that what she sees as the current generosity of the UK system is acting as a magnet, and driving small boat crossings.

In a social media video trailing her announcement, external, Mahmood said: "We will always be a country that gives sanctuary to people who are fleeing danger but we must restore order and control."

But copying Denmark too closely would be controversial.

Four years ago the Danish government planned to return around 200 refugees to Syria even while a civil war raged - because it said some parts of Damascus were safe.

And Mahmood's new approach will certainly face opposition from some Labour MPs.

When it was revealed that Denmark was being used as a model for tougher rules in the UK, Labour's Clive Lewis told the BBC the system in that country echoed "talking points of the far right."

And he said "progressive" voters may migrate to more left-wing parties, such as the Greens, if Labour goes down this route.

Another Labour left-winger, Nadia Whittome, said following in Denmark's path would be a "dead end - morally, politically and electorally".

But the BBC understands Mahmood will issue a warning to her sceptical Labour colleagues in a speech to Parliament on Monday.

She will suggest that while some of her plans may seem immoderate, the alternative could be a further rise in support for Reform UK.

She is expected to say: '"If you don't like this, you won't like what follows me."

The home secretary believes Denmark is an example to emulate because its asylum policy - summed up as "less in more out" - has been achieved while remaining inside the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

But both she and her opposite number in Denmark - Rasmus Stoklund - want to see reforms and to rein in "activist judges" who might give too much emphasis to the ECHR's provisions on "rights to a family life" when deciding on deportation cases.

She is expected to address this in her statement on Monday.

Both Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that it would be more effective to leave the ECHR entirely.

And rather than giving refugees temporary status, Reform UK say they would detain and deport cross-channel arrivals.

The Conservatives argue that the only way to stop small boats is to bring back their scheme to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which was scrapped by Labour.

The home secretary is likely to acknowledge on Monday that the UK's borders are "out of control".

Simply adopting new policies is unlikely in itself to restore the trust of voters tempted by Nigel Farage.

But if Mahmood's policies actually reduce numbers, she will hope her party will be granted permission to be heard not just on migration but on other policies too.

[Josquius]

Not learning the lesson they should already have been learning from the Green surge then....

[garbon]

Not learning the lesson they should already have been learning from the Green surge then....

Oh apparently refugees can settle, they will just need to wait 20 years...

[Richard Hakluyt]

....in a dingy room with cheap and uncomfortable plastic seats....

[Josquius]

The principle that refugees only get 2 years and the path to citizenship isn't straight and open I don't necessarily disagree with. It seems sensible.

But... Making them go through the same life or death process every 2 years, a life permanently in limbo with no chance of putting down roots.... It's too much. Too dumb.

The entire idea that this will dissuade refugees just seems broken. We've seen time and again people coming here have huge misconceptions about how it would work. Far from all of them are savvy operators.

[garbon]

The principle that refugees only get 2 years and the path to citizenship isn't straight and open I don't necessarily disagree with. It seems sensible.

But... Making them go through the same life or death process every 2 years, a life permanently in limbo with no chance of putting down roots.... It's too much. Too dumb.

The entire idea that this will dissuade refugees just seems broken. We've seen time and again people coming here have huge misconceptions about how it would work. Far from all of them are savvy operators.

I saw this Mahmood saying this morning on last point that it is to stop people smugglers from saying the UK terms as a way to entice people to cross from France. I immediately thought okay even if you make it more restrictive, the smugglers can just lie about conditions on the other side.

[garbon]

She also did say that refugees who were contributing to the UK would have a faster route than 20 years but curious to see what that looks like when you cut that against that at any check-in point during their asylum status, it could be decided their home country is safe and they are sent back.

[Tamas]

Sensible or not, it will fail it's ultimate objective. People who are bothered by immigration are bothered by immigrants not illegal ones specifically, they are just a good target either because they really think most of the new coloured faces are illegals, or because they feel allowed to speak against them.

But the number of brown people in the street won't decrease by this so it will not be deflating Reform. Quite the contrary because now both Reform and Labour are talking about immigration as The Issue.

[garbon]

Sensible or not, it will fail it's ultimate objective. People who are bothered by immigration are bothered by immigrants not illegal ones specifically, they are just a good target either because they really think most of the new coloured faces are illegals, or because they feel allowed to speak against them.

But the number of brown people in the street won't decrease by this so it will not be deflating Reform. Quite the contrary because now both Reform and Labour are talking about immigration as The Issue.

They won't be able to out reform Reform.

[Tamas]

I can see why people find the Right more comforting - no discussions or arguments in the open, gives you the illusion of things going swimmingly.

Reading daily news that have standards yet craves controversy for clicks, like the Guardian, is very exhausting.

"Reeves is rumoured to be raising income tax, this is really bad according to a lot of people"
"Reeves won't be raising the income tax, this is really bad according to a lot of people"
"Labour isn't tackling immigration so Reform is surging, this is really bad according to a lot of people"
"Labour is trying to address immigration, this is really bad according to a lot of people"
"We don't build anything, this is really bad according to a lot of people"
"Somebody almost built something, this is really bad according to a lot of people, luckily somebody else intervened in time"

[Tamas]

Sensible or not, it will fail it's ultimate objective. People who are bothered by immigration are bothered by immigrants not illegal ones specifically, they are just a good target either because they really think most of the new coloured faces are illegals, or because they feel allowed to speak against them.

But the number of brown people in the street won't decrease by this so it will not be deflating Reform. Quite the contrary because now both Reform and Labour are talking about immigration as The Issue.

They won't be able to out reform Reform.

Having said all that, I think it is fair to say that immigration is perceived as a problem to varying degrees by a now-critical amount of people (otherwise Reform wouldn't be this strong, simply). Conceding that field to them and just ignoring is probably the wrong idea at this stage.

But yeah, trying to be half as draconian as Farage promises (ha-ha) to be seems like a carbon-copy of the Tory strategy around Brexit - flaff about with half-arsed "solutions" not making a clear stance either pro or against.

Either they need to be positive about the immigration numbers (a tough sell I am sure) or do something that hinders Reform's ability to thematise properly: IDK, say "under the Tories we had record numbers of people coming in. This is a great potential for our country but it's also a short-term challenge. We are putting a practial full stop on immigration for a 5-year period while we catch up our infrastructure". Or something.

I don't know. It feels futile to try and avoid PM Farage, it is pre-ordained like Johnson or Trump was - too much the embodiment of English zeitgeist not to rule the country.

[garbon]

Sensible or not, it will fail it's ultimate objective. People who are bothered by immigration are bothered by immigrants not illegal ones specifically, they are just a good target either because they really think most of the new coloured faces are illegals, or because they feel allowed to speak against them.

But the number of brown people in the street won't decrease by this so it will not be deflating Reform. Quite the contrary because now both Reform and Labour are talking about immigration as The Issue.

They won't be able to out reform Reform.

Having said all that, I think it is fair to say that immigration is perceived as a problem to varying degrees by a now-critical amount of people (otherwise Reform wouldn't be this strong, simply). Conceding that field to them and just ignoring is probably the wrong idea at this stage.

But yeah, trying to be half as draconian as Farage promises (ha-ha) to be seems like a carbon-copy of the Tory strategy around Brexit - flaff about with half-arsed "solutions" not making a clear stance either pro or against.

Either they need to be positive about the immigration numbers (a tough sell I am sure) or do something that hinders Reform's ability to thematise properly: IDK, say "under the Tories we had record numbers of people coming in. This is a great potential for our country but it's also a short-term challenge. We are putting a practial full stop on immigration for a 5-year period while we catch up our infrastructure". Or something.

I don't know. It feels futile to try and avoid PM Farage, it is pre-ordained like Johnson or Trump was - too much the embodiment of English zeitgeist not to rule the country.

Certainly they can't ignore it is an issue.

I wonder if there's something to be said around communicating:


We know the Conservatives let too many asylum applications get backlogged and we're devoting x amount of resource to get that processed quicker so that we can make sure those who 'don't deserve' asylum are processed quickly out of the country. And amending legislation to get them through appeals faster too (though I know this is where right is proposing to exit ECHR)

We are also doing x to make sure that asylum seekers are contributing to society (while not stealing jobs) while we host them in our country.

We are introducing a more robust monitoring system so asylum seekers can't simply disappear into the country while awaiting outcomes on their cases

We also hear your frustration that we have asylum seekers getting housing to live in while you and your children struggle to find places to live where you have grown up/lived your whole lives. We're doing x, x, x to ensure that housing is being built in your neighborhoods that you can afford. No more endless cowering to developers who want to build endless luxury flats.


I feel like all of that sounds a little better while also working on things that will make a difference to British citizens.