Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

I expect that high black unemployment rate gets blamed on the black people.

Not exclusively.

[Josquius]

I think where labour are looking with Europe (rightly) is towards a customs union... But not in this government. More everything short of it for now but with it ready to go after the next GE when it should be ever more clear brexit was a disaster.

I've always felt that is reflected in his politics. He gives the impression of being a "serious" person but his actual ideas basically don't seem to amount to more than planting lots of trees. It's the politics of a well-meaning, benign landowner.

Sure.
But placed next to the other tories who are the less well meaning land owners, recently joined by the similarly dastardly mill owners...

Just listened to the Rest is Politics from yesterday and they basically spelled out my line of thinking here around Europe

[Sheilbh]

Again I'm slightly confounded that after 14 years in opposition, and having repeatedly stated (in opposition and then government) that growth is their one priority that Labour are going to take basically a year to actually come up with their industry strategy:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/12/labour-postpones-long-awaited-industrial-strategy

Labour will not release long-awaited industrial strategy until June
Exclusive: Strategies for life sciences to be published earlier but broader report expected in June

This isn't the only area - there are many other (eg from a security perspective the China audit, for spending departments Treasury reviews) - where government departments are basically just spinning the wheels until x report comes in. They can't announce or do anything significant on huge swathes of policy in advance of these reports, audits, reviews and strategies - but they are also being repeatedly delayed. I think this is a big problem both in terms of government actually doing anything but also the politics (I think part o the reason there's been so much space for the opposition, especially Reform) is that there is a news void where the government should be announcing/doing things.

Also I think it seems very arrogant/complacent to me - at most they've got 5 years to the next election. The last parliament saw a swing from the biggest Tory majority in 30 years to the biggest Labour majority in 25-30 years. People are dissatisfied and volatile. I don't think you can spend your first year (when you've got most political capital to do difficult things) pondering what you're going to do.

It feels like another area where they're failing (and I think this is a European theme to be honest) to meet the urgency of the situation we're in.

[crazy canuck]

There was a boom of economic mobility for Black men in the 60s.

Your charts are not measuring economic mobility.

[Valmy]

So when we are talking about how relatively good people had it in the 70s, we need to remember who was benefiting at that time and who was not.

Looks like black people are benefiting about the same as now as you did back in the 70s despite all this massive increases in economic growth and productivity. That doesn't make you stop and think a second?

[garbon]

There was a boom of economic mobility for Black men in the 60s.

Your charts are not measuring economic mobility.

Well of course people who had been effectively excluded from society had more opportunities when in the 60s they were given rights by the government.

I'm not sure economic mobility is the only (or key) way to measure quality of life.

Note this chart below would suggest America has been on a decline in absolute mobility for a long time?



And this link seems to suggest that mobility remains higher for white people than black - specifically black men less mobile compared to white men, while women appear comparable across black and white.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/race-and-economic-opportunity-united-states

[garbon]

So when we are talking about how relatively good people had it in the 70s, we need to remember who was benefiting at that time and who was not.

Looks like black people are benefiting about the same as now as you did back in the 70s despite all this massive increases in economic growth and productivity. That doesn't make you stop and think a second?

Stop and think what?

[crazy canuck]

There was a boom of economic mobility for Black men in the 60s.

Your charts are not measuring economic mobility.

Well of course people who had been effectively excluded from society had more opportunities when in the 60s they were given rights by the government.

I'm not sure economic mobility is the only (or key) way to measure quality of life.

Note this chart below would suggest America has been on a decline in absolute mobility for a long time?



And this link seems to suggest that mobility remains higher for white people than black - specifically black men less mobile compared to white men, while women appear comparable across black and white.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/race-and-economic-opportunity-united-states

My claim was not that economic mobility is the only measure. My claim was that the 70s had better economic mobility than now.  Your chart shows that my claim was accurate.

[HVC]

Man, the 40s must have been awesome

[Valmy]

Stop and think what?

To understand the point I was trying to make?

In the 1970s we were just a few years after the Civil Rights act. We had just completed 100 years of legal and systemic attacks, and centuries of legal human trafficking and enslavement and denial of rights before that, on the opportunities of black Americans. Logically the situation the should have been far worse for black Americans than it is today. Yet somehow fifty years later despite all the opportunities that should have opened up, the situation is not significantly changed. Because of the fucking point I was making: that there existed a stronger middle class and protections for workers and higher wages then that have been stripped away.

[Valmy]

Man, the 40s must have been awesome

Well...the 30s had to be pretty shit for that graph to work 

[garbon]

There was a boom of economic mobility for Black men in the 60s.

Your charts are not measuring economic mobility.

Well of course people who had been effectively excluded from society had more opportunities when in the 60s they were given rights by the government.

I'm not sure economic mobility is the only (or key) way to measure quality of life.

Note this chart below would suggest America has been on a decline in absolute mobility for a long time?



And this link seems to suggest that mobility remains higher for white people than black - specifically black men less mobile compared to white men, while women appear comparable across black and white.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/race-and-economic-opportunity-united-states

My claim was not that economic mobility is the only measure. My claim was that the 70s had better economic mobility than now.  Your chart shows that my claim was accurate.

Okay but that seems like an awfully narrow point - especially given there doesn't appear to have been anything special about mobility in the 70s - just another part of the downward slope.

[crazy canuck]

Okay but that seems like an awfully narrow point - especially given there doesn't appear to have been anything special about mobility in the 70s - just another part of the downward slope.

For people in poverty it is not a narrow point.  You are showing your privilege 

[garbon]

Stop and think what?

To understand the point I was trying to make?

In the 1970s we were just a few years after the Civil Rights act. We had just completed 100 years of legal and systemic attacks, and centuries of legal human trafficking and enslavement and denial of rights before that, on the opportunities of black Americans. Logically the situation the should have been far worse for black Americans than it is today. Yet somehow fifty years later despite all the opportunities that should have opened up, the situation is not significantly changed. Because of the fucking point I was making: that there existed a stronger middle class and protections for workers and higher wages then that have been stripped away.

I'm not sure my graphs support that. After all, would you expect all those graphs to start trending in negative directions (lower home ownership, higher poverty) without protections? Why would they just stay steady with the 70s if the conditions are worse?

What I see from those graphs is that black people have held mirred in a terrible enconomic situation by the same force that has always entrapped them - white people.

[garbon]

Okay but that seems like an awfully narrow point - especially given there doesn't appear to have been anything special about mobility in the 70s - just another part of the downward slope.

For people in poverty it is not a narrow point.  You are showing your privilege 

I wouldn't be part the share of children making more than their parents unless we are comparing my current income to my retired parents.