Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

The opinion polls are reassuring...this is the implosion of a political party not the collapse of the UK system of government. With Labour 30 points ahead the electorate are not so blind as to vote for an obviously incompetent party. So, after some more Tory shenanigans we can expect them to receive a crushing electoral defeat and either reform or die.

Just today, Labour on 53% and the Tories on 20%

But also even removing the actual causes of this collapse - they've looked like an exhausted, divided party in need of some time to renew in opposition since the election.

Report from Henry Zeffman from a "good source" that the 1922 Committee/Tory party are going to set the require number of nominations to run for leader at 100 MPs, so roughly a third of the parliamentary party. If that's true, I'm not sure Johnson can even get on the ballot which would be very humiliating for an ex-PM. I also think it rules out, say, Braverman who was clearly wanting to be a spoiler from the right.

Edit: Also seeing lots of fairly public pushing for and against Johnson returning - including this from a BBC reporter which I think would basically implode the party. As I say I think there's a genuine risk for the Tories if they try to bring Johnson back of the end of the Tory party with defections, by-elections etc:

Ione Wells
@ionewells
New - I'm told by senior Conservatives that there are MPs talking about triggering by-elections if Boris Johnson is serious about standing to be leader again. I've heard from MPs tempted to, and gathering evidence of defections and resignations in the event of his return.

As I say if the nomination threshold is 100 MPs then I don't think Johnson can get into the competition - only candidate I'm sure can is Sunak.

[crazy canuck]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

FPTP tends to squeeze votes into two parties.

But ultimately I think they're inheritors of the Liberal Party's tradition and votes (the SDP bit didn't really matter). They're a party of reform and the anti-Tory party in the bits of the country that weren't really industrialised - just like the Liberals were.

There'll be lots of tactical voting at the next election (as in 1997) so I imagine they'll do pretty well. But I think it's a testament of Starmer's success in detoxifying Labour after Corbyn that most people who want the Tories gone are happy voting for him and Labour - just as they were in 1997 so they're not desperately looking for an alternative.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Report from Henry Zeffman from a "good source" that the 1922 Committee/Tory party are going to set the require number of nominations to run for leader at 100 MPs, so roughly a third of the parliamentary party. If that's true, I'm not sure Johnson can even get on the ballot which would be very humiliating for an ex-PM. I also think it rules out, say, Braverman who was clearly wanting to be a spoiler from the right.

This seems pretty reasonable to me, in a parliamentary system having a members election that can produce a PM that has a bad relationship with her caucus in parliament is a recipe for disaster, the 100 MP threshold would most likely mean whomever the next PM is they will have less problems.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

And of course thinking about that with all the risk of party splits if Johnson returns you can't help but think of one of the bits of the strange death of Liberal England and the liberal split between Lloyd George and Asquith. A disreputable, morally compromised but charismatic leader with past electoral success refusing to leave the stage sounds a little familiar.

[crazy canuck]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

FPTP tends to squeeze votes into two parties.

But ultimately I think they're inheritors of the Liberal Party's tradition and votes (the SDP bit didn't really matter). They're a party of reform and the anti-Tory party in the bits of the country that weren't really industrialised - just like the Liberals were.

There'll be lots of tactical voting at the next election (as in 1997) so I imagine they'll do pretty well. But I think it's a testament of Starmer's success in detoxifying Labour after Corbyn that most people who want the Tories gone are happy voting for him and Labour - just as they were in 1997 so they're not desperately looking for an alternative.

Thanks for that insight. 

[Sheilbh]

This seems pretty reasonable to me, in a parliamentary system having a members election that can produce a PM that has a bad relationship with her caucus in parliament is a recipe for disaster, the 100 MP threshold would most likely mean whomever the next PM is they will have less problems.

It's sensible and will also help their very quick contest.

Now confirmed - via the party chair and 1922:

Eleni Courea
@elenicourea
Graham Brady + Jake Berry joint statement

— Nominations to be Tory leader close 2pm Monday — need 100 nominations

— Tory members get online vote

— Contest concludes next Friday 28th

— There will be one broadcast event so the public can hear from the final two

[crazy canuck]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

And of course thinking about that with all the risk of party splits if Johnson returns you can't help but think of one of the bits of the strange death of Liberal England and the liberal split between Lloyd George and Asquith. A disreputable, morally compromised but charismatic leader with past electoral success refusing to leave the stage sounds a little familiar.

Yeah, Richard's dream book when then be entitled "HUBRIS - The death Tory Britain"

[The Larch]

Hold a thought for the authors of this book, out for sale on December 8th.

[Valmy]

I wonder how bad an option the Liberal Democrats have to be to not show up in the polls at a time like this.

And of course thinking about that with all the risk of party splits if Johnson returns you can't help but think of one of the bits of the strange death of Liberal England and the liberal split between Lloyd George and Asquith. A disreputable, morally compromised but charismatic leader with past electoral success refusing to leave the stage sounds a little familiar.

I presume this is David Lloyd George holding on to power by utilizing conservative support? Or is it Asquith refusing to leave the stage and then deciding to put Labour in power? Tell me more!

[Sheilbh]

Hold a thought for the authors of this book, out for sale on December 8th.

That was Starmer's (very good) gag yesterday:
https://twitter.com/mannyfidel/status/1582791856491937792?s=20&t=rJ4nM3zalbMkPsZIwi7yWQ

[Valmy]

Damn. Said right to her face.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Apparently if you did not buy your "In Liz we Truss" mugs from the Conservative Party store, you missed your chance, they have already been pulled.

[Sheilbh]

I presume this is David Lloyd George holding on to power by utilizing conservative support? Or is it Asquith refusing to leave the stage and then deciding to put Labour in power? Tell me more!

Leave Asquith alone!

[Valmy]

I presume this is David Lloyd George holding on to power by utilizing conservative support? Or is it Asquith refusing to leave the stage and then deciding to put Labour in power? Tell me more!

Leave Asquith alone!

Ah. So clearly you meant David Lloyd George was the guy who killed the Liberals, not Asquith I take it