Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Not sure I would agree with his conclusion. Where did this minorities needing protection and now being established bit come from?

A tory ethnic minority pm is potentially dangerous for minority rights. They could well spin it as proof of their warped version of "personal responsibility" being valid, that racism isn't a thing at all and everyone just has to try harder than they can accomplish anything.

[Tamas]

The points that article makes reminds me of my earlier suspicions that many on the Left are no less racist than those on the right, it's merely that it manifests in patronising and condescension as opposed to disdain and hostility.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's basically about class and that that is still the key divide in British politics more than race. The in/out group in UK politics is class - so as communities become more middle class, have more graduates/professionals/ABC1s, own more properties etc they are more likely to vote Tory. Just like white British communities.

This is visible with (non-Muslim) British Indians and there's evidence it's starting to happen with African and Bengali voters (though I think Tory Islamophobia is a big problem).

Edit: By contrast if communities are more working class, in more deprived areas - or Muslim (and subject to Tory Islamophobia) - then they are likely to vote and stay Labour.

[Tamas]

I think that's basically about class and that that is still the key divide in British politics more than race. The in/out group in UK politics is class - so as communities become more middle class, have more graduates/professionals/ABC1s, own more properties etc they are more likely to vote Tory. Just like white British communities.

This is visible with (non-Muslim) British Indians and there's evidence it's starting to happen with African and Bengali voters (though I think Tory Islamophobia is a big problem).

Edit: By contrast if communities are more working class, in more deprived areas - or Muslim (and subject to Tory Islamophobia) - then they are likely to vote and stay Labour.

I meant more about what the article implied about a practical Labour policy of choosing "racially appropriate" representatives more than the Tories do.

[Sheilbh]

Sorry yeah, I was mainly replying to Joe on what I think the last paragraph meant.

[Zanza]

I don't follow this closely. Any interesting policy ideas beyond tax cuts and culture wars from this bunch?

[Tamas]

I don't follow this closely. Any interesting policy ideas beyond tax cuts and culture wars from this bunch?

 

No.

[Sheilbh]

I don't follow this closely. Any interesting policy ideas beyond tax cuts and culture wars from this bunch?

I think what's interesting is the two candidates who seem to have a bit of momentum are Sunak and Badenoch. They're also the two candidates who wouldn't make promises about tax cuts. Sunak as the continuity Osborne-ism candidate says it's "fairytale economics" given the deficit. While Badenoch has made the big thing is the necessity for politicians to be honest with people and not not make promises they can't keep: "for too long politicians have said you can have your cake and eat it".

I think they may end up being the final two - support for Mordaunt is deflating as she's not really holding up under scrutiny, and I think the right realise they've not made the best bet by trying to push Truss whose campaign is going very badly and gets more unpopular the more people see of her (not least because she's basically running a Johnson loyalist, more in sorrow than anger, campaign which might appeal to some MPs but is really unpopular with voters).

Edit: Incidentally I think Badenoch is very unlikely to win, and this could be wrong because she is not very experienced, but I think she is the most dangerous candidate for the left. I think she is better at politics than Sunak or Truss but also has a clear, coherent vision in a way most of the other candidates don't.

[Josquius]

The points that article makes reminds me of my earlier suspicions that many on the Left are no less racist than those on the right, it's merely that it manifests in patronising and condescension as opposed to disdain and hostility.

More they parachute candidates less and when they do its for different reasons than ticking the not racist box - if you want to be as cynical as possible about them then this will be because they think  they've nothing to prove there whilst this has long been a big weak spot for the tories.

[Sheilbh]

All parties use safe seats to try and get bright young things/promising talent into parliament. But they still have to convince the local party - but that doesn't mean they're the favoured candidate, for example I think Sunak was but in Badenoch's seat, the CCHQ pick was a former Cameron staffer (now in the Lords), but she did better at the selection meeting.

It's not just parachuting.

[mongers]

Shelf, what's you take on last night's 'leadership' debate, I recorded it, tried to watch it, gave up after 5 minutes went Truss started spouting some bullshit and though I have better things to do with my time. :-)

Didn't watch it. I was in Luton airport waiting for a very delayed flight watching the reaction online which was really divided/no consensus which is interesting.

My sense from the comments though was Mordaunt increased the worry that she's just a bit empty/pure PR (Johnson with good hair). Truss seemed to have a very, very bad night. Badenoch seemed to do okay - she's done what she set out to in this campaign I think. And Tugendhat did well but is a no hoper.

So I think, by process of elimination it was probably good for Sunak?

Thanks for that Shelf, saved me much time.

[Josquius]

All parties use safe seats to try and get bright young things/promising talent into parliament. But they still have to convince the local party - but that doesn't mean they're the favoured candidate, for example I think Sunak was but in Badenoch's seat, the CCHQ pick was a former Cameron staffer (now in the Lords), but she did better at the selection meeting.

It's not just parachuting.

Sure. Others do it too and I don't approve of it then either. MPs shoukd always have some sort of link to their seat.

This convincing the local party isn't quite the fair and open process it might be. From what I hear a lot is that central has decided on such and such a candidate and organising resistance is a difficult process.

[The Larch]

It seems that Corbyn was not the true socialist... but Liz Truss is... 

'It's socialism': heated Tory leadership debate exposes deep divisions
Truss says Sunak will choke economic growth by raising taxes while he accuses her of not being conservative

Rishi Sunak accused his rival Conservative leadership candidates of promoting "socialism" by promising unfunded tax cuts, as the deep divisions in the party over economic policy were exposed in a bad-tempered televised debate.

As the contenders clashed repeatedly over tax and spending in the ITV debate, Liz Truss confronted her former cabinet colleague, saying: "Rishi, you have raised taxes to the highest level in 70 years. That is not going to drive economic growth.

"The fact is that raising taxes at this moment will choke off economic growth," she added.

Truss has promised tax cuts worth as much as £30bn, suggesting they can be paid for through additional borrowing and faster growth.

Sunak insisted there would be a cost to immediate tax cuts, however, in "higher inflation, higher mortgage rates, eroded savings".

"And you know what, this something-for-nothing economics is not conservative, it's socialism," he said. "If we're not for sound money, what is the point of the Conservative party?"

The hard-fought leadership contest, triggered by the reluctant resignation of Boris Johnson as Tory leader 10 days ago, has pitted current and former cabinet colleagues against one other.

Truss, who has the backing of Johnson loyalists including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries, has defined herself in particular against Sunak, who led in both the first two rounds of voting among MPs.

He has staunchly defended his record as chancellor, however – including the decision to raise national insurance contributions.

As well as questioning colleagues' tax cut plans, Sunak also took on Penny Mordaunt's suggestion earlier on Sunday that she could ditch one of his fiscal rules – the promise only to borrow for investment, not day-to-day spending – to allow the Treasury to spend more on tackling the cost of living.

Challenged about it, Mordaunt said: "Too many chancellors have had too many fiscal rules that they have then had to ditch because they weren't able to meet them," prompting Sunak to shoot back: "Literally Jeremy Corbyn didn't think that was the right approach."

Taxes and the economy have been at the heart of the contest, with Sunak the only candidate not promising immediate tax cuts, promising instead not to tell "fairy tales" about what is affordable.

With each candidate given the opportunity to question one of their colleagues, three of Sunak's four rivals turned on him.

Kemi Badenoch asked him why he had failed to take more action on Covid loan fraud, despite the fact that she and other ministers had raised the issue with him during the pandemic.

He said: "That's absolutely not right", stressing the speed with which the scheme had had to be rolled out. Truss asked Sunak about whether he still favoured investment in China, and Mordaunt questioned whether he had done enough as chancellor to fund defence spending.

Sunak turned on Truss, asking her: "You've been both a Liberal Democrat and a remainer: I'm just wondering which one of those you regretted most?" The foreign secretary said she wasn't born in a Conservative home, and had been on a political "journey".

She also returned to the familiar theme of her Leeds comprehensive school, where she claims fellow pupils were let down by low expectations, contributing to her move to the right.

Shortly before the debate, Sunak's team had released a quirky black-and-white Pathé News-style video drawing attention to the fact that he backed Brexit in 2016, unlike Truss.

Conor McGinn, Labour's deputy national campaign coordinator, said the style of it "feels about right for the guy who as chancellor has brought us the highest taxes and biggest drop in living standards in 70 years ... Rishi Sunak's taken us back to the 1950s".

One of the few striking moments of consensus in the debate, in which the candidates repeatedly confronted each other, was when presenter Julie Etchingham asked them to raise their hands if they would welcome Boris Johnson into their cabinet.

None of them did so – though Mordaunt said "he got Brexit done". All five also said they would not call a general election to give them a mandate if they won the leadership contest this autumn.

Tom Tugendhat attacked his rivals for remaining in the government propping up Johnson, saying: "Even really good people lent credibility to the chaos."

Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, who supports Sunak, earlier suggested Truss's record in government belied her claim to be a tax-cutter. "Liz can answer for her policies and her record; she was chief secretary of the Treasury. People can see whether spending and headcount in the civil service went up or down," he told Sophy Ridge on Sky News. "Did she cut taxes at that time?"

The debate was the second of three televised clashes between the candidates. Half of the original field of 10 contenders, including Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt, have already been knocked out, after two rounds of voting.

Further votes among MPs will be held on Monday, Tuesday and if necessary Wednesday, with the final two candidates then presented to Conservative members, who will make the final decision by 5 September.

A new online survey of party members, published on Sunday by website Conservative Home, suggested Mordaunt's popularity may have peaked. It showed Truss beating Sunak by 49% to 42% and Mordaunt by 48% to 41% in head-to-head comparisons.

Mordaunt had earlier criticised what she called the "toxic politics" of the race, and "smears" against her.

Documents leaked to the Sunday Times suggested Mordaunt was prepared to remove some, though not all, of the medical requirements for individuals opting to change their gender.

Badenoch, her successor as equalities minister, who is also running for the leadership, has said Mordaunt's stance in the past was to push for self-identification. That contradicts Mordaunt's insistence in Friday's Channel 4 debate that she was "never in favour of self-ID".

Badenoch told the Sunday Times: "I'm not going to call her a liar, I think it's very possible she genuinely did not understand what she was signing off. It's a very complex area."

Btw, I find it quite bizarre that an internal party debate is televised nationally. Is that common?

[Josquius]

It's a sad sign of the state of things that we have adopted the American version of socialism as a dirty word.

[Sheilbh]

In fairness Mordaunt's suggestion of borrowing to support regular spending is actually to the left of Corbyn/McDonnell's policy.

Socialist has always been an attack line for the Tories, not least because Labour used to (and do again) describe themselves as socialist. "The socialists" is to them what "the Tories" is to the left.

Btw, I find it quite bizarre that an internal party debate is televised nationally. Is that common?

It's been common in recent years but I'm not sure how far back it goes. It's a bit like the primaries - this person will become PM or, practically, a main party's candidate for PM.

There were TV debates in the Tory leadership election in 2019 (I think in 2016 everyone's campaign imploded so quickly there weren't any ) and Labour ones in 2019, 2016, 2015 and 2010.

The last one has been cancelled because Truss and Sunak have pulled out - the last couple have been a bit of a circular firing squad. But when it's down to the final two there'll be twelve debates/hustings across the country for the membership - but I'm not sure how many, if any, will be on TV (it seems unlikely - but I think they are online and in person). And in addition to these I think they've had three debates for different groups of Tory MPs and one online.