Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

It is important for our institutions that he goes and that the tories sack him without a qualm. Hopefully he will then become as irrelevant as former PMs usually become.

I'm fascinated to see what type of ex-PM he becomes.

If the tories continue to stand by him then we are in the same mess as the USA.

Fingers crossed.

I don't think we are on a few fronts though.

The Tories, from what I read, aren't standing by him as much as they're trying to work out the most opportune moment to get rid of him - but inaction is always the easier option. It's notable that very few Tories are coming out and defending him or associating themselves with him - and the few who are are not helping ("even a serial killer gets their day in court"/"we all broke covid rules and anyway is a law that only has a fine really a crime?"). In the US I feel we would already be at the stage where the White House was saying they partied every night against covid rules and that was good actually.

The media are different too - there are many problems and many biases in the British press. But it's almost reassuring to me that basically they would still prefer a scoop than supporting "their" side. So the Telegraph have had multiple exclusives on this - they used to employ Johnson; the Mail have gone back and forward (I suspect because their readers are angry and the Mail likes to channel the rage of their readers). The Sun have been a little more muted but they are in personal difficulties given that their Deputy Editor is one of the people who had a Downing Street leaving do and their political correspondent is Carrie Johnson's ex-boyfriend (until Johnson arrived) The only paper that's stayed full state media is the Express which no-one reads.

But most importantly public opinion is different. There was a great piece by James Johnson on this - who has recently been doing polling in the US. In the US there's basically 40% of people who say they will support Trump more or less regardless, in the UK it's only 8% for Johnson (which I imagine is just the irreducible core of the Tory party). 70% of people want Johnson to resign including half of Tory voters - the US never saw those levels with Trump where 80-100% of Republican voters supported him to the end (or the intermission).

In part I think this is just because we're less polarised - my understanding is the UK still sees poll movements on most issues that are broadly congruous. So all voters of all parties tend to move in roughly the same direction in response to the same news - whether it's Labour anti-semtism or these scandals. There is still a broad middle ground of opinion. My impression is that doesn't exist in the UK. It was different for a little while in relation to Brexit because of Brexit - but it doesn't matter any more - apparently you will have entire two hour focus groups where no-one mentions Brexit anymore. It's only an issue for the real obsessives/people still entrenched in that rather than the defining feature/divide in our politics that people thought it might become.

And just on that point it makes sense logically: if your entire pitch to voters was to "get Brexit done" and you've spent 24 months boasting that "got Brexit done", you can't then turn around and rally your supporters with Brexit unless you are admitting that you didn't in fact "get it done".

[Sheilbh]

And Sunak's gone public on the Savile comments - from Rachel Wearmouth of the Mirror:

Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth
Wow! Sunak breaks ranks to criticise the PM on his Jimmy Savile comments: "Being honest, I wouldn't have said it."
Sunak:"With regard to the news about Munira, she was a valued colleague. I v much enjoyed working with her & I'm sorry to see her leave govt. I'll miss working with her & with regard to the comments, being honest,I wouldn't have said it & I'm glad the PM clarified what he meant"

That seems like a sign after Mirza's resignation to the rest of the cabinet and Tory MPs. I suspect there's something to Iain Martin's comment that Sunak and his team can see the economic news coming down the pipe (inflation projected to peak at 7% this spring, tax rises etc) so he needs to move quickly before his unusually high popularity is wiped out - and, crucially, before someone else moves first.

[Tamas]

  That's a very stereotypical English thing. Sunak says ""Being honest, I wouldn't have said it."" Reaction OMG WOW WHAT DIRECTNESS!

[Sheilbh]

Re. palace coup rumours - Number 10 really imploding now:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Jack Doyle has resigned as director of communications at No 10. He's told friends he always planned to leave after two years and that his departure is not linked to that of Munira Mirza
Addressing staff tonight, he said: 'It was always my intention to do two years.
'Recent weeks have taken a terrible toll on my family life.
'Thank you all for your hard work and dedication. I wish you all the best for the future'

That's fine but in terms of the leaving after two years - from what I can see he only joined in April 2021. And "all the best for your future" is what you write on the leaving cards of colleagues you never want to see again, no?

Edit: Also - on the Munira Mirza - got a lot of time for journalists explaining the news through Disco Elysium references

Stephen Bush
@stephenkb
Some brief thoughts on Munira Mirza's resignation. The TL;DR is 'The wolf is at the door, Kim. He will eat the sun.'

[Sheilbh]

Reports that Johnson's "chief of staff" and PPS (the Bernard from Yes, Minister role) are also stepping down tonight. This was more expected - the PPS was the guy who sent the invite to the BYOB party (and has been "cooperating" with Sue Gray - plus he's a civil servant so he's just moving back to the Foreign Office), while Tory MPs have been complaining that Johnson needs to get rid of Rosenfield for ages.

But while they were expected changes as part of a "reset" - the timing isn't exactly helpful (although I suspect Number 10 is trying to bury the Mirza resignation which is more damaging). So drawing a line under this and moving on appears to be going swimmingly and running out of senior aides is going to be a challenge for a leaders whose first response is to blame his senior aides

As Ayesha Hazarika pointed out it's pretty extraordinary to be in this state just two years after winning an eighty seat majority and your party's best result in more than 30 years

[garbon]

That's a very stereotypical English thing. Sunak says ""Being honest, I wouldn't have said it."" Reaction OMG WOW WHAT DIRECTNESS!

[Tamas]

As Ayesha Hazarika pointed out it's pretty extraordinary to be in this state just two years after winning an eighty seat majority and your party's best result in more than 30 years

Almost as if Johnson is a deeply despicable and incompetent person, and the last election was lost by Corbyn and not won by Johnson.

[Josquius]

As Ayesha Hazarika pointed out it's pretty extraordinary to be in this state just two years after winning an eighty seat majority and your party's best result in more than 30 years

Almost as if Johnson is a deeply despicable and incompetent person, and the last election was lost by Corbyn and not won by Johnson.

Corbyn was nice but shit at politics.
Johnson is an absolute shit but good at politics.

[HVC]

Which as an outsider astounds me.  He doesn't appear particularly charming or intelligent. Not even in a used car salesmen slimy style like trump. Dude looks and moves like uncle fester in a wig.

[Sheilbh]

Almost as if Johnson is a deeply despicable and incompetent person, and the last election was lost by Corbyn and not won by Johnson.

Well, quite - I'd also add historically unpopular. Johnson's the only PM in history to come into office with negative approval ratings. During the 2019 election he consistently polled beneath May's levels from 2017 That's why I still spend so much time and energy being annoyed at Labour - all they needed to do was support literally anyone else for leader

And the current crisis in Ukraine and the UK stance (which is supported by Tories and Labour) goes some way to showing the issues very many people had with Corbyn. I mean one of his advisors and oldest allies was declared persona non grata in Ukraine after his involvement with the "Solidarity with the Antifascist Resistance in Ukraine campaign" in 2014. He said it was a war being waged by Kyiv, following the diktats of the EU and NATO, against people exercising their right to self-rule and questioned if Ukraine was behind downing the Malaysian flight - Ukrainian intelligence agencies apparently suspected him of being part of a pro-Russian propaganda campaign While Corbyn only used to have a show on the (now banned) Iranian state channel Press TV, he was a regular on Russia Today

There is no doubt in my mind that if Corbyn was in charge right now there'd be open revolt by the parliamentary Labour Party over Ukraine policy - probably trying to remove him - and he'd be the Western leader most sympathetic to Putin by some distance.

Corbyn was nice but shit at politics.

Corbyn has bad politics. And he may be nice but he's spent his entire career (right back to Tony Benn's pretty disgraceful deputy leadership campaign) with bad/nasty people.

I feel like Corbyn and his reputation is either going to end up being not that far from his brother's as a fringe lunatic mixing with some very dodgy folk or he'll be turned into a cuddly national treasure. I can't tell which - but I'm going to fight the latter

[Tamas]

As Ayesha Hazarika pointed out it's pretty extraordinary to be in this state just two years after winning an eighty seat majority and your party's best result in more than 30 years

Almost as if Johnson is a deeply despicable and incompetent person, and the last election was lost by Corbyn and not won by Johnson.

Corbyn was nice but shit at politics.
Johnson is an absolute shit but good at politics.

Corbyn was a dumb idiot who fraternised with every enemy of the UK without a moment of pause or reflection. Just because he was more pro-state ownership than the Tories doesn't make him nice.

[Sheilbh]

Which as an outsider astounds me.  He doesn't appear particularly charming or intelligent. Not even in a used car salesmen slimy style like trump. Dude looks and moves like uncle fester in a wig.

I don't get it at a simple level and I never really have - but I genuinely think part of it is that I grew up in Scotland. I never understood the appeal of Cameron or Johnson - Theresa May, Major, Thatcher I get, even if I disagree with them.

I think part of it is that if Trump is the curdled embodiment of American salesmanship and "power of positive thinking" self help; I think Johnson is the same for English cynicism and desire not to be, or not to be perceived, as too serious (Scotland, on the other hand, values seriousness). He weaponised humour. I read a Tom McTague piece with a line about Disraeli that he was a mocking observer watching the very stage he was performing on and I think that is a huge part of Johnson's appeal - the sense that he's in on the joke. Everything he does is with a look to camera and a wink - which is why he can't deal with actual outrage beyond the normal confected outrage of a news cycle.

Plus I think - again from McTague - of Johnson's own lines on politics: "politics is a constant repetition of how we make kings for our societies, and how after a while we kill them to achieve a kind of rebirth. Some of the kings are innocent... some of them are less innocent... It doesn't really matter. They must die." Or on the Tories: "whatever happens, let no one say that this is a struggle for the Tory party's soul. There is no such thing. The Tory party is a vast organism animated by a few vague common principles such as tradition and love of country, and above all by the pursuit and retention of power." So he can't be too surprised that this is how it is, inevitably, ending for him - less innocent and in the way of the Tories retention of power.

Edit: This is from an interview with a Johnson loyalist tonight asked about Number 10
"Does it feel like the last days of Rome in there?"
"No it doesn't. I think the last days of Rome were more fun"

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think that Corbyn is an unpleasant anti-semitic fuckwit.......just my two pence worth 

[Admiral Yi]

Corbyn was nice but shit at politics.

Plenty of people might disagree--Blairites(tm), victims of IRA or PLO terror, anti-Maduro Venezuelans, etc.

[Sheilbh]

Plenty of people might disagree--Blairites(tm), victims of IRA or PLO terror, anti-Maduro Venezuelans, etc.

Victims at the Bataclan given that he was Chair of Stop the War when they said (later withdrawn) that "Paris reaps whirlwind of western support for extremist violence in Middle East" or families of British soldiers when Stop the War acknowledged the legitimacy of the Iraqi struggle "by whatever means necessary" to end the occupation (also later withdrawn). All the stuff that caused other politicians on the left, like Green leader Caroline Lucas or gay rigths campaigner Peter Tatchell to stop working with Stop the War - but Corbyn never had any issue with that association. Just like he's never had an issue sharing a stage with people who are such blatant Holocaust deniers that most other Palestine Solidarity campaigner won't go near them.