Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

Beware the Ides of Febuary, Borius!

[Sheilbh]

Beware the Ides of Febuary, Borius!

It looks like Johnson managed to win the backbenchers over with a promise to bring in their former election strategist Lynton Crosby (also credited with turning things around for Cameron at Number 10 in 2012). I mean really just gives the impression that they're a pretty cheap date if that's all it takes, one rebel told journalists on the way out that they're "fucking deluded"

I suppose they just have to hope nothing else comes out and everyone forgets about this unpleasantness. In other news Dominic Cummings is doing a two hour "ask me anything" tomorrow evening.

Snap poll shows no change - 60% of people want him to resign (Tory voters are split 50/50), 75% think the Tories should try to force him out.

Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson (who has called for Johnson to go - as has the entire Scottish Tory party) almost in tears talking about this:
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1488235127847243780?s=20&t=PVWR_sdvbqLkKladhrzUNA

[PJL]

All in all really good news for Labour - they'll have 6 months of Boris with the cloud of the final Sue Gray report waiting to be published and the Met investigation itself.

[Sheilbh]

Not great, not terrible:


The Mail also reporting that Johnson attended his wife's "Winner Takes It All" Abba party in the flat on the day Cummings was fired - which is under investigation by the police

[Jacob]

Is that normal in British politics? To have a "haha fuck that guy he's leaving" party?

[mongers]

Is that normal in British politics? To have a "haha fuck that guy he's leaving" party?

Well those were certainly likely Rushi Sunak's thoughts as he listened to the din coming from the next door flat.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think so Although I imagine Gordon Brown's Treasury had a big session the night they got Peter Mandelson fired or Blair to finally announce the date he'd leave office.

But part of this is that Carrie Johnson seems to be an unusually politically active spouse of a PM. She met Johnson while she was a Tory media staffer during his campaign and was later Tory party director of comms - she then moved on to do comms for ocean conservation and animal welfare charities. So she has her own opinion on Tory strategy and she has ties with other Tory staffers and MPs - she's close to Javid, she's very good friends with several spads in the Cabinet Office. It was reported that some of the Sue Gray investigation would focus on those spads and others going up to the Downing Street Flat for "work meetings" when they work in different departments, for different ministers and Carrie Johnson doesn't have a formal role.

There has been an old fashioned and misogynist amount of briefing about Carrie Johnson - including by Dominic Cummings (whose nicknames for her were "Princess nut-nut" and "Carrie Antoinette" - the latter has stuck given the parties during lockdown). Basically lots of people find it very easy to ascribe any decisions they don't like from Johnson to Carrie. On the other hand she or people around her have been briefing the media too because there are plenty of stories reporting things "friends of Carrie" say she was decisive in - for example prioritising the vets from Afghanistan (they've dropped that one as public opinion has turned) or some of the net zero stuff.

But it's pretty clear there was a bit of a power struggle between Cummings and his team (I think all men with, given Cummings' behaviour, lots of macho posing) v Carrie and the "friends of Carrie". It seems to have got pretty personal - see Cummings' nicknames for Carrie and friends of Carrie have endorsed David Cameron's description of Cummings as a "career psychopath" and said he's an "obsessed bully". I don't really know how Cummings ever thought he'd win in a power struggle with the PM's wife, but here we are. There were reports at the time of people not strongly in either camp (including Johnson) just trying to keep their head down and not let things get out of hand. It didn't work in the end. But that's why, when he left, she decided to throw a big party with all of her friends and allies in the rest of government.

Worth saying Carrie Johnson is unusual in having her own network and position within politics before marrying Johnson. She's unusual because she is a political operator in her own right - there's been plenty of very political spouses in Number 10 (Dennis Thatcher and Cherie Blair spring to mind) but they didn't have allies in government departments and they didn't breif the media.

Edit: Good piece by Marie Le Conte on this - basically Carrie is a political player in a role that has no accountability. She points out that arguably she's more of a Westminster Conservative than Johnson (staffer for an MP, spad for a minister, press officer for party HQ, comms director for party HQ - she lived in the lobby reporting Westminster bubble) while Johnson's rise was The Spectator/Fleet Street/media world and then onto be London mayor (he's always been a pretty indifferent MP who doesn't need lobby reporters because he has his own media profile):
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/carrie-symonds-is-a-serious-political-player-so-its-not-sexist-to-ask-whats-her-game-j8bmdxh3z

Well those were certainly likely Rushi Sunak's thoughts as he listened to the din coming from the next door flat.

Yeah - at some point he's going to get dragged into this.

Part of me wonders if he actually has an alibi - just not necessarily a very palatable one - if he actually lives in one of his two London properties not Downing Street

[Sheilbh]

Separate from the general ongoing hot mess of British politics - I found this a really poignant and touching piece on the new growing Hong Kong community in the UK (and I quite liked the illustration).

Hopefully we'll expand the criteria to include more young people immediately as well as the current 5 million who are eligible for this route and people are able and safe to take it if they want to leave. I was going to phrase that as "hopefully the community will grow" but obviously that depends on Hong Kong continuing to become a worse place which would be a real shame

From Lantau to Ealing: Hong Kong's homesick exiles in Britain greet the Year of the Tiger
Many want to preserve Hong Kong's culture of protest against Beijing's anti-democratic crackdown.

Illustration by Jasmine Cragg for POLITICO
By Stuart Lau
February 1, 2022 4:00 am

LONDON — For many newly arrived Hong Kongers in Britain, this will be their first Lunar New Year away from home.

As families across the Chinese-speaking world gather to celebrate the advent of the Year of the Tiger on February 1, the Cantonese festivities across the U.K. in the coming days will often be a bitter reminder of separation from loved ones and from the places where they grew up.

The exodus from Victoria Harbour to the Thames swells by the day. Some 90,000 people have already applied for a new visa scheme that Britain introduced in January 2021, months after Beijing imposed its National Security Law on the former British colony. This new legal weapon — coupled with other, sometimes colonial, laws — is widely used by Hong Kong's government with Beijing's blessing to crack down on opposition politicians, media businesses and civil society organizations.

If they all come, those 90,000 Hong Kongers — equivalent to the population of an English town like Hastings or Hartlepool — will add to an already significant Cantonese community and join the West Indians, South Asians and Eastern Europeans as the latest wave of newcomers to help reshape the fabric of modern Britain after World War II.

Beijing criticized the U.K. scheme for turning Hong Kongers into "second class citizens," but many see flight to Britain as the only lifeboat available to them.

Carmen Lau, 26, is one of the new arrivals and has moved to suburban Ealing in West London. It's a world away from the fishing village where she would normally celebrate New Year.

"My family was a traditional fishing family in Tai O on Lantau Island," she explained over dim sum and fried rice in a restaurant in London's Chinatown. "During the Lunar New Year, we always got together back in the boathouse where my mother grew up. I also grew up there and we used to have those celebrations together, but here, I do not have any relatives."

Many of those who have just moved to the U.K. have first-hand experience of the massive protests of 2019, when 2 million Hong Kongers took to the streets — some clashing with the police — to call for the local government to withdraw an extradition bill, which could have seen Hong Kong citizens sent to mainland China for criminal trials.

Lau, barely two when Britain handed over its colony to China in 1997, was a member of an idealistic youthful generation caught up in the political showdown with the Communist party in Beijing.

With a degree in politics, she became an assistant to a pro-democracy lawmaker. Shortly after the 2019 protests broke out, applications for the District Council elections opened up. She found herself in a new movement hoping to break the tradition of widespread pro-Beijing influence in these local bodies, which run daily matters like setting up new libraries and pensioners' centers — to say nothing of organizing lion dances during the Lunar New Year.

The pro-democracy camp won an overwhelming and unprecedented landslide — and it didn't take Beijing long to react to stamp out that political threat. Lau bought a one-way ticket last summer when she sensed that she was about to become the subject of a government probe into electoral manipulation. She was quite right to be worried — with human rights groups and Western governments criticizing the Hong Kong authorities of launching a political persecution.

Two and a half years on from the start of the protests, the pro-democracy councillor is still affected by a strong sense of loss.

"Moving to a new country or settling in a new country is one thing, but I think the bigger challenge is that we face a failure, and we need time to recover," she said.

"For us the younger politicians, we got into politics because we saw hope that Hong Kong might have a chance to be a democratic society one day. But within a year, the government's attitude had changed," she lamented. "Not even resigning was enough to stop further action from them. When I decided to leave, only my parents knew. I didn't tell any of my friends and they were shocked when I told them I'd already left Hong Kong."

She dreams of going home — even if she concedes that return may be 20 or 30 years way.

Democratic flame

For many of those who have left Hong Kong — but certainly not all — there is a desire to keep alive something of the flame from the protest movement. While demonstrations have been mostly banned in Hong Kong (where the police have repeatedly cited coronavirus restrictions as a reason to outlaw them), Hong Kongers have organized protests in Manchester, Bristol and Birmingham in recent weeks to show support for jailed pro-democracy supporters back home.

There is also a desire to preserve the unique and brash cultural heritage of Hong Kong and not allow Beijing to snuff it out.

New groups have been formed teaching "Hong Kong-style Cantonese" and screening (made-and-banned-in-Hong Kong) documentaries chronicling the 2019 protests. A news presenter who used to work in Hong Kong's largest broadcaster has set up a YouTube channel with Cantonese news about Britain. The British government has also offered funds to campaigners providing assistance and counseling services to recent migrants from Hong Kong.

Nathan Law, once Hong Kong's youngest-ever lawmaker, is now the most prominent pro-democracy voice in Britain, where he arrived with refugee status.

He has put culture high on the list of the community's priorities. After all, observers say, China's ruling Communist party would like nothing more than for Hong Kong's democrats in exile to forsake their identity and dissolve into innocuous English exile.

"It's clear that the government is trying to erase protest memory by banning the movies and arts. As we are now living overseas, it's crucial for us to preserve them, as well as our culture and identity. These are our weapons to fight against the authoritarianism," he said. He noted that many Hong Kong cultural festivals have taken place in the U.K. "It is really a good sign that we facilitate integration and mutual understanding with the local community by cultural exchange. As long as we keep doing this, the spirit of Hong Kong will never die."

Crucially, though, unity is not a given. Hong Kongers are wary of each other because of potential clashes over political allegiance. The fact that someone has come to Britain does not necessarily mean that they are in the pro-democracy camp. The new British visa is not a refugee scheme, which means that there's no political assessment on the applicants. For many who've arrived, the most pressing concerns focus on integration and the practicalities of life.

Indeed, many of the new arrivals who try to engage one another by joining groups on Facebook and WhatsApp are quick to realize that any talk of politics would be the exception, not the norm.

Lying low

"When we meet up, we only talk about which restaurants to go to, where to do shopping or look for a nice flat. No one feels safe enough to share political thoughts with strangers who've just known each other," said Carol, a recent migrant who works in the tech industry. "There's a lot of mutual suspicion."

As Lau puts it: "Fear is a major thing, because you know you are never safe. Even in the U.K. there are spies or undercover from the [Chinese Communist Party] and because I still have friends and family back in Hong Kong, I am always aware of this."

Indeed, even many of Lau's cohort — ex-politicians who had a track record of speaking up — are keeping their heads down. Dozens of other pro-democracy politicians are currently taking refuge in Britain, but many of them refuse to talk to the media — or even publicly acknowledge the fact they've emigrated.

"We don't know what might happen to our family members if we become too high-profile here [in the U.K.]," said one former elected politician, who now works as a waiter and prefers not to be named. "It's better for us to lie low."

The same unwillingness to speak publicly is also true of former journalists, half a dozen of whom requested anonymity to speak for this report. Many of them recalled the worsening level of press freedom, which, in the words of the Hong Kong Journalists Association, has been left "in tatters."

Three independent media outlets, including the pro-democracy Apple Daily, have been shut down within the last seven months, while other media have seen the mass departure of journalists. Hong Kong's police chief last week reminded those attending a press conference that "press freedom is not absolute."

Unsurprisingly, media workers are among those who are worried enough to take up the new visa quickly. An ex-Apple Daily journalist, who moved to the U.K. about a year ago and spoke on condition of anonymity, said a return to Hong Kong would be out of the question.

"I think 70 percent of me wants to explore different countries, different cultures; 30 percent of me is thinking, like, I have to escape," she said. "I think most of us agree that [the past few years] was a really painful experience. It's like seeing your friends change into a different character. And you know that things will get worse."

"It's definitely not a nice thing to see."

On the positive side, the community is showing solidarity in exile.

"There are some barriers, as not everyone speaks good English. And naturally the upheaval has had a toll on some people's mental health, but I would say the signs feel encouraging to this point," said Johnny Patterson, a campaigner who has spent the past few years with the Westminster-based Hong Kong Watch group. "I have been struck by how well some of the Hong Kongers have supported each other to integrate."

The Hong Kongers even club together in their own football team that plays every weekend in south London.

Striking another nostalgic note, the Hong Kong team is named after the mountain that looms over the city's Kowloon peninsula: Lion Rock United.

[Sheilbh]

Telegraph exclusive - this is the bet Tory MPs are making. That at some point this drip drip drip will stop and between leakers, Cummings saying there's photos of Johnson at this party, police investigations and the eventual release of the full report - I see no reason for thinking that's at all likely. There's no drawing a line under something that isn't finished/where all the details haven't already come out.

So it's still just a gamble of get rid now or after the local elections:

Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
Exclusive:

Boris Johnson was in the Downing St flat the night of the 'Abba music' event being investigated by police for potential Covid rule breaches.

And the Guardian have an exclusive about another party:

Boris Johnson attended leaving do during strict January lockdown
Exclusive: sources say PM dropped in at prosecco-fuelled farewell in 2021 now being investigated by police

It's all over - the rest is timing.

Also - hilariously bad polling from Savanta ComRes yesterday after Johnson's statement:

Savanta ComRes
@SavantaComRes
NEW PARTYGATE SNAP POLL

65% do not accept PM's apology today
69% want him to resign
68% don't trust him and govt. to deliver
80% want PM to publish full, unredacted report
66% say he doesn't care about the hurt caused
On Partygate:
65% say PM told more lies than truth
26% say he has ONLY told lies
47% say it makes them ashamed to be British
Proportion who are ashamed rises to 53% 18-34

1,128 UK adults, 31 Jan (post statement)

[Sheilbh]

2-3 MPs announcing they've submitted their letter of no confidence yesterday and again today - another bit of drip drip drip that will only increase the pressure.

Interesting to see that a couple are the type of young ambitious backbenchers who only won their seats since 2017. It feels quite telling if that type of person is willing to bet that it's better being visibly trying to get rid of Johnson, than being a loyalist

I feel like a leader can take disloyalty from the old hands who are never getting into cabinet and are probably resigned to being permanent backbenchers; if the up-and-coming MPs turn on you then you're in trouble. And I imagine Rishi would love to get to know them and hear their ideas about how the Treasury can help their constituency - or Liz Truss can invite them to one of her "Fiz with Liz" things to "get to know new MPs".

[Sheilbh]

Oh very sad to see that Ben Bradshaw is standing down as an MP at the next election. It makes sense because he's been in office since 97, but always been one of my favourite MPs.

Sunder Katwala's been posting about this and how it is simply extraordinary what he had to face from the Tory candidate because he was openly gay. Looking back there were a few extraoardinary campaigns in 97 because of how far the UK's moved in the last 25 years - the views were already out of date in 97 which is why all those campaigns lost but are just unimaginable from a major party now.

In Exeter, the Tory candidate desecribed homosexuality as a "sterile, disease-ridden, God-forsaken occupation" and that attractive women in the workplace were "fair game for anybody" - he basically stopped talking to the press because of "negative publicity [...] we don't want some queer media person from London wrecking it". It was a Tory seat since 1970 - Bradshaw won very convincingly with a bigger swing than the national average and has held Exeter ever since - he thanked all the other parties (including UKIP) except the Tories for running a "clean" campaign.

As well as Bradshaw there was the anti-German xenophobia against Gisela Stuart in Edgbaston and David Evans' who attacked his opponent for being an unmarried mother "with three bastard children". They all lost but the transformation of views from as recently as the 90s is pretty profound (a lot of the credit I think goes to New Labour for just changing the culture on a lot of issues). It's a bit like the British version of when you see those polls on, say, inter-racial marriage in the US and there's still under 50% who approve of it as late as the Clinton administration - and then (as with gay rights) opinion seems to move very quickly and irreversibly in one direction.

[Sheilbh]

There's been a scandal for the last few days over a reference Johnson made to Starmer's time as Director of Public Prosecutions.

Basically Starmer was DPP at a time when there was a possible child sexual abuse prosecution of Jimmy Savile. It didn't happen. There is no question that Starmer was not at all involved in that decision (it was made several layers down). But he apologised for it on behalf of the Crown Prosecution Service. For last few years it has, however, circulated as a meme on the far-right and far-left that Starmer chose not to prosecute Savile.

Johnson initially made a comment in his response on the Gray report about Starmer "prosecuting journalists not Jimmy Savile" which went down very badly with Tory MPs. Starmer then called Johnson out over it - noting that Johnson's leader of the same party as Churchill and that both Tories and Labour fought together to defeat fascism; and now he's regurgitating lies from the fascist right. Johnson broadly doubled down but has now "clarified" that he didn't mean Starmer was personally responsible just institutionally responsible - in the same way, Johnson would say, as he is "responsible" for parties he didn't attend. But it still caused a lot of anger with Tory MPs - there's reports that this row more than the parties is now driving people to move against him.

Notably ministers and Tory MPs when asked about it aren't repeating Johnson's slur in part, I imagine, because if they said it outside Parliament they could be sued for libel.

Now his head of policy has resigned over it - she's Munira Mirza who has worked with Johnson for years. She was a deputy mayor when he was mayor, they worked together on Vote Leave and then in Downing Street. She has always been seen as a bit of a culture warrior (her husband also works at Number 10 - unclear if he's going and he's very close to Rishi Sunak) because of her old Revolutionary Communist Party (now Spiked) membership. Her resignation letter is pretty devastating on this:

Dear Prime Minister,

It is with great regret that I am writing to resign as your Head of Policy.

You are aware of the reason for my decision: I believe it was wrong for you to imply this week that Keir Starmer was personally responsible for allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice. There was no fair or reasonable basis for that assertion. This was not the normal cut-and-thrust of politics; it was an inappropriate and partisan reference to a horrendous case of child sex abuse. You tried to clarify your position today but, despite my urging, you did not apologise for the misleading impression you gave.

I have served you for fourteen years and it has been a privilege to do so. You have achieved many important things both as Prime Minister and, before that, as Mayor of London. You are a man of extraordinary abilities with a unique talent for connecting with people.

You are a better man than many of your detractors will ever understand which is why it is desperately sad that you let yourself down by making a scurrilous accusation against the Leader of the Opposition.

Even now, I hope you find it in yourself to apologise for a grave error of judgement made under huge pressure. I appreciate that our political culture is not forgiving when people say sorry, but regardless, it is the right thing to do. It is not too late for you but, I'm sorry to say, it is too late for me.

Yours sincerely,

Munira

She is if anything an anti-snowflake, a Johnson loyalist for over a decade and key to his operation in Downing Street - if she's going I imagine lots of others in Downing Street and the cabinet will be looking at their position. This feels like things could move quickly now. As I say her husband is in Downing Street - he's also a Tory operator. He was a speechwriter for Cameron, in party HQ under May and back in Downing Street under Johnson - he's now very close to Sunak. It might be nothing but this feels a little like the start of a palace coup and the people who've worked for and backed Johnson for a decade or more are now working to get rid of him

[Josquius]

It is great to see Johnson's "I'm with Q" nod and wink is proving beyond the pale for many.

[mongers]

There's been a scandal for the last few days over a reference Johnson made to Starmer's time as Director of Public Prosecutions.

She is if anything an anti-snowflake, a Johnson loyalist for over a decade and key to his operation in Downing Street - if she's going I imagine lots of others in Downing Street and the cabinet will be looking at their position. This feels like things could move quickly now. As I say her husband is in Downing Street - he's also a Tory operator. He was a speechwriter for Cameron, in party HQ under May and back in Downing Street under Johnson - he's now very close to Sunak. It might be nothing but this feels a little like the start of a palace coup and the people who've worked for and backed Johnson for a decade or more are now working to get rid of him

Rats leaving a sinking ship.

I'd wager she'll be back working in some form for a Sunak administration.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is important for our institutions that he goes and that the tories sack him without a qualm. Hopefully he will then become as irrelevant as former PMs usually become.

If the tories continue to stand by him then we are in the same mess as the USA.

Fingers crossed.