Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Made a mistake of going on Facebook today.
Apparently there are still Johnson defenders out there and their approach is to say what about starmer doing the same thing as there's a video of him having a beer whilst chatting to the local mp at a constituency office in March.

[Gups]

Conservative Home seems about 95% in favour of him going

[Syt]

A thread of citations for people who broke lockdown rules, posted under #PartyGate:

https://twitter.com/kirkkorner/status/1483705791379034112

[Sheilbh]

The defector helped restore a bit of party tribalism yesterday and there was more talk of Johnson not facing a no confidence vote until at least the Sue Gray report. The problem with deciding that Johnson can stay on, for me, is that it seems like a very big gamble that everything there is to know in this scandal is already out there.

So the latest is Robert Peston reporting that Sue Gray "has found" the email from a senior official to the PM's PPS warning him that the 20 May party shouldn't happen - which aligns with Cummings' account more than Johnson's. And I still feel like there's more to come out - such as photos - possibly the afternoon of Sue Gray's report about a party she wasn't told about.

It's also reached a point where every time things calm down a new problem emerges. So this morning a senior Tory backbencher said the whips office were threatening to withhold funding for projects in the constituencies of rebels as well as leaking/encouraging the papers to publish stories that would embarrass them - he says from the reports he's heard it's blackmail and the MPs should go to the police (who will promptly ignore it). If they're stupid enough to directly link funding to a confidence vote then that's a problem, if it's just generalised ("nice Levelling up award you've got here, it'd be a shame if something happened to it") then I'm less sure.

On the one hand this is just how whips work, isn't it? There were loads of reports in the Blair years about MPs being told they wouldn't get x project in their constituency if they decided to rebel - so I wonder if part of this is people (including many MPs) aren't used to the politics of a government with a big majority (do what we say, or your career is over, we'll dish the dirt and you're behind Sinn Fein in the government's list of priorities) v a minority government or one with a weak majority (what do we need to do to win your vote?).

I'm not sure how much it'll matter unless it starts to get fleshed out a little.

Edit: Also the first step I think would be to communicate with the Speaker - and I think it's again why it's so good that Bercow's gone and Hoyle is speaker as I think he is actually trusted and well-liked by MPs on all sides.

[Tamas]

it's so good that Bercow's gone

[Sheilbh]

He was awful

Both on a constitutional level where he was biased. But also despite the general concern for conventions, Bercow overruled his parliamentary clerks on the rules so regularly that they got the right to record the issue, their advice and that they disagreed with his ruling. They literally had to invent a procedure for the first time in parliamentary history because he so routinely decided the rules as normal shouldn't apply.

On another level Bercow repeatedly blocked instituting normal HR proceedings for parlliamentary staff to report harassment or bullying. This may be because there were repeated reports of him bullying members of staff - and several people who worked for him had to be signed off on sick leave for PTSD. There are so many reports of employees in parliament (and for them working for the Speaker is the biggest/most important job) having to be re-assigned because of the abuse they got from Bercow. And as I say I just really struggle with the idea that a man who has multiple staff members with PTSD from working with him should have a role in public life - I hate that stuff and the parliamentary staff are I think particularly vulnerable because they're surrounded by people with power.

The reason there is a lot of investigations into bullying and harassment is because Lindsay Hoyle supports normal HR rights and thinks parliamentary staff should be treated with the basic dignity any worker should expect, rather than have to sacrifice that because they work in parliament. Hoyle is reportedly incredibly popular with the people who work from parliament from janitors and tea ladies (he named one of the rooms after a tea lady who'd died after working in parliament for over 40 years) to clerks and parliamentary counsel - because he is perceived as defending them against abusive MPs.

There's a reason Bercow is cordially loathed by parliamentary reporters (as opposed to Lobby correspondents who probably just love a bit of drama) like Esther Webber.

There's more than a bit of hypocrisy about the way people who are (rightly) angered at Johnson breaking rules and flouting conventions cheered on Bercow doing exactly the same thing just for the other side.

[Tamas]

I enjoyed the show, though.

Incidentally this has made me discover a treasure trove of Bercow gifs which I will shower this forum with in the near future.

[The Larch]

There's been discussion of a PM carrying on as Prime Minister while no longer leading their party - (...) I think Aznar did it too.

Nope, Aznar was PM until April 2004 and only left the party leadership in October 2004.

There was a brief period at PSOE during Aznar's government, though, in which the Leader of the Opposition and the party leader were two different guys (Borrell and Almunia respectively), and it was a supremely uncomfortable time for them.

[garbon]

I enjoyed the show, though.

Incidentally this has made me discover a treasure trove of Bercow gifs which I will shower this forum with in the near future.

I thought gifs were verboten.

[Sheilbh]

Nope, Aznar was PM until April 2004 and only left the party leadership in October 2004.

There was a brief period at PSOE during Aznar's government, though, in which the Leader of the Opposition and the party leader were two different guys (Borrell and Almunia respectively), and it was a supremely uncomfortable time for them.

So not Aznar and not common in Germany

Separately there were loads of Tory MPs sharing screenshots of the new Labour MP saying things in WhatsApp like calling Labour very bad names etc. It struck me as a little short-sighted, because surely if he's defected the default assumption should be that he's been showing the Labour whips all of those WhatsApp groups so they'll have access to everything other Tory MPs might have said.

But another example of the benefit of a defector - and this is pretty disgraceful - is he was asked about William Wragg's comments today and said that he was told by the whips that plans for a new high school in his constituency would be scrapped if he didn't vote a certain way:
https://twitter.com/BBCNWT/status/1484149149700341770?s=20

I think there's a generational angle here - over half of Tory MPs were elected in 2015 or later. There's a lot of patronising going on by the older MPs - I've seen reports of them saying the new MPs haven't been "socialised" properly because of covid, there's lots of stuff about them not really "getting" politics and they should be grateful for Boris winning their seat for them (not, of course noting that he might lose the seat for them now). And I don't think it'll be lost on them that it was the older MPs who wanted to change the rules to save Owen Paterson. There's not a generational fight yet but I wonder if the lines are starting to emerge for one either for a post-Johnson or post-election fight

[Sheilbh]

As Bercow came out it turns out he's now doing videos promoting crypto for some shady companies and telling people not to sell the dip. It's like Farage selling gold on YouTube

It's just very shabby, isn't it?

Edit: Incidentally - via Twitter - as hard as this is to believe:


It reminds me a little bit of the civil service investigations into the Alex Salmond sexual harassment allegations - in that we are beyond the point of what a civil service investigation into their political bosses can tell you. They are better for identifying if there were flaws in process or procedure, or if the right guidance was followed, they can look at who knew what when on policy decisions etc. What they can't do and shouldn't be asked to do is make an assessment on whether the politicians they work for broke the law because that's not their job, or whether what they did is so serious that they should be fired because that's also not their job.

The civil service is going to be incredibly reluctant to do anything that would lead to the downfall of an elected prime minister - because that's for MPs or the voters to decide. And I think expectation is being deliberately built up by Number 10 over this report so anything short of a photo of Johnson leading a conga line in a toga is somehow vindication. The most it will be is a very carefully prepared loaded gun that is left on the table for Johnson's cabinet/backbench opponents to use.

[Syt]

[Sheilbh]

After Johnson's outriders spent the day dismissing the allegations about their whipping operations - I'm still not convinced dismissing new MPs as idiots who should know their place, for example by calling them "attention-seeking schoolchildren", is working:

Tory rebels seeking to oust Boris Johnson retaliate in 'blackmail' row
We have texts and a recording, say angry MPs
Steven Swinford, Political Editor
Thursday January 20 2022, 10.00pm, The Times

Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are considering publishing a secretly recorded conversation with the chief whip and text messages after they accused the government of blackmail and intimidation.

Cabinet ministers have condemned the Tory rebels, known as the pork pie plotters, as "attention-seeking schoolchildren" after their attempt to trigger a confidence vote in the prime minister faltered following the defection of a Tory MP to Labour.

The rebels claim that whips have threatened to withdraw funding from their constituencies and that government aides have smeared them by releasing unsubstantiated claims about their drinking habits and personal lives in the press. The claims have been denied by No 10.

The rebels met on Thursday to discuss how to respond. "They were comparing notes and discussing whether or not to make public texts and other evidence they have from the whips," a source close to the group said. "One member has recorded a heated conversation that they had with the chief whip."

William Wragg, chairman of the public administration committee and one of seven Tory MPs who has submitted a letter of no confidence in Johnson, urged colleagues to report the actions of whips to ministers or even go to the police.

"The intimidation of an MP is a serious matter," he said. "Moreover the reports of which I'm aware would seem to constitute blackmail. As such it would be my general advice to colleagues to report these matters to the Speaker of the House of Commons and the commissioner of the Metropolitan Police."

One member of the group said that they were told by a whip "you're done" when voting against the government last year: "They pulled me over and I told them I was voting against them. They got right up in my face. They told me that if you think you're getting a single f***ing penny, forget it. If you think a minister is coming to your patch forget it. You're done."

In other developments:
• An investigation by the civil servant Sue Gray into Downing Street parties has uncovered a critical email from a senior official warning against a drinks event in the No 10 garden in May 2020.
• Steve Baker, a senior Tory MP, said it was "checkmate" for Johnson as others indicated that they were waiting for Gray's report before submitting letters of no confidence.
• The 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs is considering changing its rules so that Johnson could face two confidence votes in the space of a year.

The rebels' claims of blackmail and threats were supported by Christian Wakeford, the MP who defected from the Conservatives to Labour moments before prime minister's questions on Wednesday. He told BBC North West that he had been informed previously that a new high school would not be built in his Bury South constituency if he did not back the government in a Commons vote.

"I was threatened that I would not get the school for Radcliffe if I did not vote in one particular way," he said. "This is a town that's not had a high school for the best part of ten years. How would you feel when holding back regeneration of a town for a vote? It didn't sit comfortably."

The Tory MP Dehenna Davison, 28, hit back at "bonkers" claims that she was the ringleader of a plot to oust Johnson. She said she was "very disappointed" by reports of her involvement. There were claims — strongly denied — of her "often being on the whisky and Coke in the afternoons".

Tory MPs indicated that Johnson had been granted a reprieve until the Gray investigation concluded. However, there are concerns in No 10 that it will damage him more than is expected.
David Davis calls on Boris Johnson to quit

Baker said: "We didn't make Boris Johnson prime minister for his meticulous grasp of tedious rules but this is appalling and the public are rightly furious. At the moment I'm afraid it does look like checkmate, but whether he can save himself — we'll see."

Senior Tory MPs are also considering changing the rules to allow two confidence votes in a year. At present the prime minister would be immune from a second leadership challenge for a year if he won a vote of confidence. The executive of the 1922 Committee discussed allowing a second vote if it had the support of a third of Tory MPs.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, admitted on Thursday that parties were held in Downing Street. He said that millions of people had been angered by the failure of people in government to follow the rules and those who broke them should "absolutely be disciplined". Javid is the first minister to concede publicly that parties did take place.

On a visit to Taunton, Somerset, Johnson said of Wragg's claims: "I've seen no evidence, heard no evidence, to support any of those allegations." He added that he would "of course" look for evidence to support the claims.

A government source said: "The whips' office spends a huge amount of time on colleague welfare. They genuinely care for their flocks. To suggest that they would bully them is clearly not accurate."

Unrelated but I think there's probably an interesting long-read on how new tech is changing politics - from the ERG organising on WhatsApp to stuff like this. The stuff that used to be difficult (organising a rebellion/discontents) seem a lot easier and the stuff that used to be easy (threatening MPs in the lobby) has become more perilous.

Also a lot of Thick of It/House of Cards cosplay going on here.

I also feel this may be one of the benefits of getting people into the Commons when they're older and have already had a bit of a career because the weirdness of it as a workplace is probably seen as normal by, say, a 28 year old MP but utterly different from the expereince of almost all of her constituents.

Edit: Incidentally David Davis is a really mixed bag as an MP - he got a debate today which seems to have been very good (and just within the rules of what they could say without pre-empting ongoing court cases/being in contempt) on "lawfare" and the use of London as a venue for intimidating journalists through libel and defamation claims, and generally the use of courts and law firms in the UK by oligarchs in what he called the "kleptosphere" (enabled by other law firms in London). Foreign Affairs Select Committee also working on a big report on this issue. But lots of very interesting and important details that probably couldn't be said anywhere outside of parliament - so good on him.

[Sheilbh]

The Daily Star adding to the pantheon of tabloid journalists dressed as birds following politicians around:


The caption below the by-line and "we hire world class fancy dress costume" are just perfect

[Gups]

That doesn't look like a duck and if it's lame doesn't walk like a duck either. Jury's out on whether it quacks like a duck.

I like the though for the day.