Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

It'd take a heart of stone not to laugh - the polling on this was done on Tuesday and Wednesday so not much will have been after PMQs (which was watched by 3 million people ) or the sombre piss-up for Prince Philip:

YouGov
@YouGov
Boris Johnson's net favourability has dropped to another all-time low of -52

Favourable: 20% (-4%)
Unfavourable: 73% (+7%)

(Changes from 8-9 Dec)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic

I also find this quite funny - also the fact that it looks pretty likely that Johnson will be PM for less time than May - after all that plotting:


My guess was that the Tories would basically try and punt this until after the local elections in May so they could blame that on Johnson, get rid of him and elect a new leader over summer recess who then has at least one year before an election to try and win people round.

But I think this is now so bad that it's starting to cause damage the party beyond Johnson that is just going to build until he goes - plus I saw Truss, who has always been a loyalist, doing an interview and it's just grim. The line they have to take is so patently inadequate that I think it'll damage leadership contenders too (a bit like in the dog days of Gordon Brown's premiership and, I imagine, Major's).

I know that it's conventional wisdom - especially in the Tories - that whoever wields the knife never wears the crown, but I don't think that applies here. I think given the royal funeral angle, I suspect Truss or Sunak could go for it now by stepping down from cabinet something along the lines of "I was willing to give the PM the benefit of the doubt and wait for the report from Sue Gray. Given latest revelations that is not sustainable and we need a change urgently." I think they'd probably be rewarded by Tory members. They'd still face a tough set of local elections, but I think this has reached the point where if someone from the cabinet is the next leader they will be tainted by have stayed loyal/trying to defend this.

Edit: Also striking that Sunak is still the most popular politician in the country (with a reasonably high name recognition):


I think Patrick Maguire's point is right that there's Truss hype in the party - but 45% of voters don't know who she is and those who do overwhelmingly dislike her (though, as you can see, British people tend to dislike all politicians).

Edit: Mentioned PMQ above - but interesting from the Guardian's media correspondent that people are basically tuning in to the news/political shows:

Jim Waterson
@jimwaterson
Television news ratings last night have been *way* up on normal this week, people are actively tuning in for the latest on the Downing Street parties. BBC News at Six pushing 5m viewers, News at Ten on 4m, Newsnight and Question Time all benefitting.

As an example News at Six is normally around 3 million viewers - so people are noticing the story, care about it and are watching.

[Gups]

Truss is pretty invisible to the Birtish public. She rarely seems to do interviews etc. I think she was remain as well so slightly surprised at her popularity with the grassroots.

[Sheilbh]

Truss is pretty invisible to the Birtish public. She rarely seems to do interviews etc. I think she was remain as well so slightly surprised at her popularity with the grassroots.

Yeah it's very weird. And not just a grass-roots perspective - I saw a piece by someon about how Truss was the risky "populist" choice v Sunak who they said was a safer pair of hands and more pragmatic.

It seems a really strange perspective to me because Truss has been in cabinet for the last seven years, she campaigned for remain, she voted for all of May's deals - she seems like basically just a leadership loyalist and her career doesn't look that different from, say, Javid's.

Sunak on the other hand has only been in parliament since 2015, campaigned for leave (which is a bold move for a new backbench MP), only moved up to cabinet in 2019 and then became chancellor. It's an incredibly rapid climb and he seems to me a very risky choice just because I don't know how much Tory MPs (or anyone else) really know about Sunak and what his instincts are.

Some of it might be weirdness/enthusiasm of Truss's speeches in the past, but I think part of it is possibly just a little sexist that a cabinet minister for 7 years is seen as more light-weight than similar or less experienced male ministers.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Sunak has had a very easy brief so far; he might want to get out of his current job before the shit hits the fan.

[Josquius]

Sunak's name has been boosted a lot by Wetherspoons. I recall posters on the outside of their building when the eat out to help out deal thing was on crediting him (for all the covid)

[Tamas]

Sunak's name has been boosted a lot by Wetherspoons. I recall posters on the outside of their building when the eat out to help out deal thing was on crediting him (for all the covid)

Hah, I guess we know why that whole scheme was started, then.

[Gups]

Sunak has had a very easy brief so far; he might want to get out of his current job before the shit hits the fan.

That may be true from a public facing perspective but he has had to fight a lot of internal battles with the free spending Boris and from what one can tell seems to come out of them quite well.

It's early days but he seems to me the most impressive of the top cabinet members. He speaks well, has a good command of his brief and does media and social media professionally. If, God forbid, I were a Tory, he'd be my pick.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, he would be my choice as well. Though I hope they choose Truss and get consigned to electoral oblivion.

[Sheilbh]

That may be true from a public facing perspective but he has had to fight a lot of internal battles with the free spending Boris and from what one can tell seems to come out of them quite well.

It's early days but he seems to me the most impressive of the top cabinet members. He speaks well, has a good command of his brief and does media and social media professionally. If, God forbid, I were a Tory, he'd be my pick.

Flip-side is - most of the decisions that he's got lots of praise for around financial support during covid seem to have happened because he was forced into them by Johnson. His instincts were eat out to help out, fighting covid restrictions and try to do the absolute minimum financially to help businesses with restrictions (see the £6k help for hospitality this year which is nothing compared to money lost through cancelled Christmas events).

That would be my worry - that he's basically Osborne/Hammond but presentable and charming (or maybe that he's a bit non-ideological so just adopted the Treasury view because he's in the Treasury). It feels like everything he got right he was forced into, everything he got wrong was his policy choice.

Given that, I also suspect it's the Tories giving up on trying to re-align along an investment/"levelling-up" style strategy and just re-trenching a bit.

I have no idea who I'd go for. Sunak seems the most plausible/imagine him as PM. I think I'd probably want one of the others to have a good campaign - maybe Zahawi or Hunt.

Yeah, he would be my choice as well. Though I hope they choose Truss and get consigned to electoral oblivion.

Yeah I've said it before but she just reminds me of a Tory Ed Miliband. You still come across people on the soft-left who really love Ed Miliband, think he was unfairly maligned and actually had a geeky charm - and have you listened to his podcast - and I think that's how Tory members see Liz Truss. But to the rest of the country they just come across as a bit weird

[Maladict]

The only thing I know about Liz Truss is that cheese speech.
It's probably all you need to know really 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o

[Sheilbh]

Telegraph's got a story about another party - this one a leaving do for the Director General of the Cabinet Office Covid Taskforce (now CEO of Sheffield City Council), where she was responsible for drawing up covid restrictions It was the day before the Christmas party.

I think we're now up to 15.

[Tamas]

Telegraph's got a story about another party - this one a leaving do for the Director General of the Cabinet Office Covid Taskforce (now CEO of Sheffield City Council), where she was responsible for drawing up covid restrictions It was the day before the Christmas party.

I think we're now up to 15.

Essentially they used every single excuse to break their own rules and party hard. Beautiful.

Meanwhile:

The Evening Standard has tracked down a woman who was fined £12,000 for hosting her own birthday party on the day of Prince Philip's funeral.

Vianna McKenzie-Bramble, 28, was hit with the punishment for the outdoor celebration on April 17 last year, when around 40 people enjoyed food, drink, a DJ set, and a bouncy castle on the Hackney estate where she lives.

So far the Metropolitan police have suggested they plan to take no action against any of the parties in Whitehall, including the two parties in Downing Street on the eve of Prince Philip's funeral.

[garbon]

Is there anything they do other than party?

[crazy canuck]

Is there anything they do other than party?

Tell other people it is against the law.

[Josquius]

Gary Neville tipped for mayor of Manchester.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/gary-neville-tipped-for-politics-after-holding-starmer-talks-284013

I can't help but wonder if this is an error. Wouldn't 95% of Manchester be against a prominent Man Utd player?