Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

A turnip.

[Sheilbh]

Another party in Downing Street during the first lockdown. This was on the day they announced that people could meet in pairs outdoors (so pre-rule of six) and a senior civil servant sent an email round for people to have a drink in the garden as the weather was nice and they'd all been working hard. It was (and this makes me think even less of Johnson) a "bring your own bottle" work do

It's all just the unstoppable force that is the British love of after-work drinks meeting the immovable object of covid 19.

[Gups]

I actually think this might be the end of Boris if he can't plausibly deny attending

[Josquius]

I have it on good authority there were no balloons thus it was acceptable.

[HVC]

Boris was just sipping tea in the garden and a party formed around him. What was he supposed to do?

[Sheilbh]

100 invitees and he's not denying that he was there (officially - no comment while Sue Gray is doing her report). It's so bad even the Met have been in touch with the Cabinet Office

[alfred russel]

I actually think this might be the end of Boris if he can't plausibly deny attending

This is exactly how you end up with a clown like Boris as prime minister.

People get pushed out or put into office on clown criteria and you get clowns in the role. Not only were the rules dumb to begin with - and lots of people didn't follow them - but he had covid early on. He had some immunity.

[Sheilbh]

This is exactly how you end up with a clown like Boris as prime minister.

People get pushed out or put into office on clown criteria and you get clowns in the role. Not only were the rules dumb to begin with - and lots of people didn't follow them - but he had covid early on. He had some immunity.

But it's not about whether the rules were right or not (and obviously his guests may not have had immunity) but that they are applied equally, otherwise they lose legitimacy. This is the reason the queen sat alone at her husband's funeral, because she knows there'd be a huge reaction here if it was perceived that the rules don't apply to her.

I think there's a difference in political culture between the US and UK on this. It reminds me of the vaccination program when right at the start you had AOC and other very young because it reminds a little of early in the vaccination program when you'd have young reps like AOC doing videos about getting their shots - which was good, but here it would cause fury if MPs were getting vaccinations ahead of "ordinary" people based on the age criteria.

Hypocrisy and queue-jumping and "don't you know who I am" are things that the British public really doesn't like. People are relatively relaxed with being lied to, but they don't like being taken for fools.

[alfred russel]

But it's not about whether the rules were right or not (and obviously his guests may not have had immunity) but that they are applied equally,

Is that so? Because maybe I've missed the articles, or maybe it just hasn't been reported, but I haven't heard of bunches of people being thrown in jail or fired over covid rules breaches. Those breaches, incidentally, seem to have been commonplace.

[Sheilbh]

Is that so? Because maybe I've missed the articles, or maybe it just hasn't been reported, but I haven't heard of bunches of people being thrown in jail or fired over covid rules breaches. Those breaches, incidentally, seem to have been commonplace.

The breaches weren't commonplace. The vast majority of people followed the rules, compliance was far higher than any of the modelers thought possible and if you look at Google mobility stats the UK has consistently been below the general trend in Europe. Most people were conscientious and did their best and folowed the rules most of the time, though I'm sure there were accidental breaches along the way but they certainly didn't organise to breach them. People certainly liked judging and pulling people up for the mote in their eye so there's lots of attention given to breaches, but that's because deep-down we're a sad nation of curtain-twitching Calvinists

Politically, you can't be the person saying that people need to follow rules if you're not doing it yourself. You can't have a cabinet minister in Number 10 announcing that two people could meet together outside while in the back garden there's a party of over 40 people. The content of the rules aren't important - if you're imposing them on the rest of society, then they have to apply to you too.

And Johnson's in a political job - if he is removed because of this it's because Tory MPs will decide he's become a liability because of this and other things. It doesn't really matter which rules he broke or not (or even if he broke any), it's the public's perception that matters and the impact that has on the Tories' chances at the next election. And the bar for suffering political consequences isn't necessarily as high as being fired in a normal job or breaking the law - it's just what the public make of it.

[alfred russel]

And Johnson's in a political job - if he is removed because of this it's because Tory MPs will decide he's become a liability because of this and other things. It doesn't really matter which rules he broke or not (or even if he broke any), it's the public's perception that matters and the impact that has on the Tories' chances at the next election. And the bar for suffering political consequences isn't necessarily as high as being fired in a normal job or breaking the law - it's just what the public make of it.

100%, but if they want to have him pushed out over stupid stuff, then goodbye boris, you never deserved the job to begin with.

But at least on this forum, he has faced a ton of criticism for not being more stringent on covid rules. Society wanted the rules. He isn't a dictator unilaterally imposing them. Would you prefer he decided, "well the scientists recommend a course of action, the public supports it, but I'll be damned if i'm going to give up my lawn parties and i'll lose my job if i'm a hypocrite, so the swedish model is what we will have!"

[Admiral Yi]

Would you prefer he decided, "well the scientists recommend a course of action, the public supports it, but I'll be damned if i'm going to give up my lawn parties and i'll lose my job if i'm a hypocrite, so the swedish model is what we will have!"

You're overlooking a rather obvious alternative. 

[Sheilbh]

100%, but if they want to have him pushed out over stupid stuff, then goodbye boris, you never deserved the job to begin with.

Oh absolutely - and Tory MPs do not and have never really liked Johnson. There are very few "Johnsonites". They had misgovings over him, but decided to make him their leader - and PM - because they thought he was the best option to win an election. He won that election, with their best majority for 30 years. Now they're facing the consequences which are that the misgivings were accurate. He was good at winning an election but not at being PM (often for the same reason) and that's caught up with them. Johnson doesn't have the discipline or grip to make 2019 a permanent realignment, his politics are more left-wing/centrist than most Tories and his personality is now working against them.

They had their best result in decades and it's been wasted. The only significant policy achievement are that they got Brexit done and they raised taxes and now they might lose their seats. Given Johnson's classical education - it is an aptly Greek narrative

But this is always the risk in Tory politics - they will only tolerate you for as long as it looks like you'll win the next election but there are always another 10 ambitious people around you who think they can do the job better and are just waiting for their chance.

But at least on this forum, he has faced a ton of criticism for not being more stringent on covid rules. Society wanted the rules. He isn't a dictator unilaterally imposing them. Would you prefer he decided, "well the scientists recommend a course of action, the public supports it, but I'll be damned if i'm going to give up my lawn parties and i'll lose my job if i'm a hypocrite, so the swedish model is what we will have!"

But surely you just get to the same point of him possibly losing office? In that case he faces public fury and is brought down because he's not a dictator and there was something like 80-90% support for lockdown (pollsters were saying they'd never seen an issue with such strong support), so it'd be politically unsustainable. Or he's honest and says he can't follow the rules so he needs to step down, so someone who can is responsible. Or we have this situation where he imposes the rules and then doesn't follow them.

The way around this is if you impose the rules, then you have to follow them (with the single exception of drugs policy where everyone accepts the hypocrisy for some reason ).

[alfred russel]

What is ironic in the whole thing is he actually tried at the start to be selfless and set an example by taking to heart the advice of public health officials (who for whatever stupid reason are considered to represent "science") and shook the hands of covid patients, and the result was he nearly died.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k

Shaking hands with covid patients while an obese middle aged dude? Really dumb and a terrible example for everyone.

Going to an outdoor dinner party after recovering from covid and having solid immunity? And then getting vaccinated at the first opportunity? Not a bad set of decisions.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Drinks, nibbles, games....

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1466721316971728900?s=20


This remains my favourite piece on the entire business of the number 10 parties.