Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

The main mistake of that article is that it assumes some sort of a policy behind this "high wage low immigration" nonsense. There is none. It is just the best line to avoid having to do something about the several crisis unfolding due to the retarded choice of Brexit.

Similarly, it will be absolutely no problem for this government and Johnson especially to say and do things which go straight against this so called "policy". Heck, the cancelling of previous universal credit increase is straight against the declared "policy" of pushing wages higher. Johnson had no trouble explaining that away with some nonsense of not wanting to enable lower wages while "subsidising" people who work and have welfare payments and thus willing to work for less at their job. Utter nonsense, but for whatever reason he can get away with everything.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It was pretty much a non-event in the NW of England; went to Liverpool last weekend (in an electric car) but all the stations seemed to be operating as normal. Liverpool is right next to a major refinery which may account for it.

A major city right next to a major refinery? Colour me surprised. 

There are only 6 major refineries in the UK and not one of them is in the SE of England, I stand by my speculation 

[Tamas]

Even The Economist analyses the whole "high wage low immigration" thing as a part of "levelling up" and as an actual policy. What is it with Johnson's hold over people? Is it the hair? This is very obviously NOT an actual policy or plan. It was never ever mentioned until they ran out of the "it's not Brexit" excuses for the various shit happening. They are still not mentioning any sort of actual intentions or understanding on how fuel and goods shortages and the near-certain stagflation is going to result in more prosperity than what we had with EU membership. There is nothing being done proactively to pursue any kind of goal on this (apart from possibly personal financial goals of members of government). FFS.

[Sheilbh]

Aren't there two sides to it though - I would say it's the strategic goal not the policy. It's opportunistic, but most of politics is.

So on the side of government it's now for them to devise policies to deliver that goal, from the side of the media and analysis - this is the metric the government have set themselves. This is what they've said they're trying to do, so how we can analyse whether their policy proposals are likely to work and if they're implemented whether they're working.

There aren't policies yet - but the relevant ministers are Gove, Kwarteng and Zahawi who I think are all among the more competent ministers so I think they will come up with something. Ultimately I think it'll come down to whether the Treasury will fund it.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Gove will want to do something and Sunak wants to make savings; could the fat one have set them up for conflict  ?

[Tamas]

Aren't there two sides to it though - I would say it's the strategic goal not the policy. It's opportunistic, but most of politics is.

So on the side of government it's now for them to devise policies to deliver that goal, from the side of the media and analysis - this is the metric the government have set themselves. This is what they've said they're trying to do, so how we can analyse whether their policy proposals are likely to work and if they're implemented whether they're working.

There aren't policies yet - but the relevant ministers are Gove, Kwarteng and Zahawi who I think are all among the more competent ministers so I think they will come up with something. Ultimately I think it'll come down to whether the Treasury will fund it.

Oh come on how something that has never been discussed or mentioned until after 2 years of Brexit be a strategic goal of Brexit? In a few months they'll effortlessly switch to a drastically opposing narrative and we and the British press will be discussing it like some valid strategic thinking.

[Sheilbh]

Oh come on how something that has never been discussed or mentioned until after 2 years of Brexit be a strategic goal of Brexit? In a few months they'll effortlessly switch to a drastically opposing narrative and we and the British press will be discussing it like some valid strategic thinking.

I don't think it is a strategic goal of Brexit (though it was for some Brexiteers and some in the Leave campaign) - but it's this government setting out what their strategic goal is for the rest of their term and it's what we can judge them on in terms of whether they succeed or not. I don't really think they can switch narrative (unless they get rid of Johnson and there's a new PM) - what we'll have now is spin about the numbers where they'll be showing how they have delivered higher wages and levelled up areas.

If they do want to shift it'll be covered as a "what went wrong" story and a reset but that is very difficult to do in office - it's more common with a failing opposition leader.

I think it probably matters more now than manifesto pledges just because I think the pandemic interrupted that and I think the pandemic was a natural reset moment everywhere. You'd normally expect a government 4 months into winning a strong majority to be pushing its most controversial legislation, this time they were instead passing laws that allowed them to order people to stay at home etc.

[Tamas]

Oh come on how something that has never been discussed or mentioned until after 2 years of Brexit be a strategic goal of Brexit? In a few months they'll effortlessly switch to a drastically opposing narrative and we and the British press will be discussing it like some valid strategic thinking.

I don't think it is a strategic goal of Brexit (though it was for some Brexiteers and some in the Leave campaign) - but it's this government setting out what their strategic goal is for the rest of their term and it's what we can judge them on in terms of whether they succeed or not. I don't really think they can switch narrative (unless they get rid of Johnson and there's a new PM) - what we'll have now is spin about the numbers where they'll be showing how they have delivered higher wages and levelled up areas.

If they do want to shift it'll be covered as a "what went wrong" story and a reset but that is very difficult to do in office - it's more common with a failing opposition leader.

I think it probably matters more now than manifesto pledges just because I think the pandemic interrupted that and I think the pandemic was a natural reset moment everywhere. You'd normally expect a government 4 months into winning a strong majority to be pushing its most controversial legislation, this time they were instead passing laws that allowed them to order people to stay at home etc.

[garbon]

We can always count on our tory apologist.

[Sheilbh]

We'll see what's coming out from EU plans but this all sounds incredibly promising. This might be able to chip away at the UUP and other moderate unionists as a start to building cross-community support - my fear is the protocol aas already become so tied to identity that the pattern is already set (and breaking out of fixed, traditional patterns in Northern Ireland is a challenge) until the 2022 election and 2024 consent vote. But I think with engagement, especially with local businesses, hopefully that solid unified opposition can be broken down:

Shona Murray
@ShonaMurray_
EU-UK Sausage wars to end.
The EU is set to offer "dramatic" changes to how the Northern Ireland protocol, say sources.
4 non-papers will be published under titles relating to Medicines, SPS, Customs & Democratic Participation- i.e. role for NI politicians + civil servants.
EU sources says 'this is not tinkering around the edges, this will involve "big changes" which includes a "bespoke" arrangement for NI regarding SPS.
It's aimed at ending the so-called 'sausage wars' with a provision for 'national identity goods' ie: British sausages.
'We obviously can't get rid of all our checks as we need to protect the Single Market so surveillance will still be ongoing but we want to end the problems with the protocol' according to sources.
EU has already changed its rules to allow generic, NHS medicine into Northern Ire.

Essentially, there's a recognition in Brussels that NI is a small region so certain derogations can apply given the deep political sensitivity involving identity which prevails.
None of what'll be presented on Wednesday will be news to @DavidGHFrost and his team, says Brx. EU says they've been working in cooperation for several months. They won't know the specifics but the 'contours' will be pretty well known.
Member states, EC, EP are all concerned that this "big" offer will be rejected and 'banked' by the UK gov, and Johnson, Frost, Donaldson will continue crusade against the NIP.
But the feeling is that these changes are fundamental enough not to be dismissed.
EU will announce measures to invite NI reps into decision-making process for the NIP and SM.
'We never prescribed or suggested having NI reps present for negotiations because the UK is 'sovereign' but we're suggesting how the process can be made more democratic. @euronews

Separately I am very pleased the UUP is on the rise again and Doug Beattie, their new leader, strikes me as very impressive. He's a moderate unionist but also seems to want to modernise mainstream unionism so it's closer to Northern Irish society and less tied to the fundamentalist Christianity of the DUP and the TUV. His first party conference has a vaccine passport and he's said he'll expel any member who is spreading anti-vax nonsense online, he's said they need more women/to improve gender balance. He's former army and has supported Northern Ireland's decision to re-settle Afghan refugees (and called for more to be accepted).

But also there's a former British soldier in Northern Ireland to be prosecuted for historic war crimes. There are two Tory MPs accompanying him - one of them resigned as a minister over this case and the wider historic crimes issue in Northern Ireland. The man is now in his 70s but an inquest found that he shot a man with learning disabilities in the back unlawfully so he is now being prosecuted with him. Despite this becoming a bit of a cause celebre in certain unionist and veteral circles Beattie has, to his credit, said he wouldn't be supporting him and wouldn't be photographed with him like those two Tory MPs (also both former forces I think).

There is a wider issue around historic crimes in Northern Ireland and the UK government position on this is understandable to an extent but wrong. I think it does need fixing in the long term. But the truth is that historic crimes, or approaches to truth and reconciliation were parked by all parties during the GFA/BA negotiations because everyone knew it could derail the entire thing. So the current approach is agreed but unsatisfactory and I think it is time (especially if the NIP starts to be less controversial/divisive) to actually fix that issue.

Edit: E.g. their latest party broadcast is incredibly cringe, bless them, but also sort of unprecedetned for a unionist party because it shows things like a same-sex couple, someone who isn't white - even someone playing a Gaelic game (hurling)! So it's clear they are trying to modernise unionism and engage more with the reality of modern Northern Ireland rather than just return to the bunker.

[Tamas]

The EU continues to bow down on NI but it won't be enough. The DUP's behaviour during the negotiations made it very clear the real objective of their lot is the end of open borders but they can't state that openly. So excuses will be found to reject all compromise.

[The Brain]

Getting Ireland to leave the EU gets more attractive every day.

[Sheilbh]

The EU continues to bow down on NI but it won't be enough. The DUP's behaviour during the negotiations made it very clear the real objective of their lot is the end of open borders but they can't state that openly. So excuses will be found to reject all compromise.

I mean the DUP had a young earth creationist as leader this year - I'm not convinced that the same rules of political correctness apply to them. I think they have stopped talking about sodomy in the last 10-20 years which is a form of progress I suppose

I don't think the DUP necessarily matter. They will say it's not enough and will be fighting with the TUV for their core, hardline unionist and Christian fundamentalist vote. If this is enough to work it'll be because the moderate unionists like the UUP and soft unionist supporters of Alliance are able to work with it. That's the key - the problem is the DUP and TUV will be aggressive on this and acting as a gravitational pull on the rest of unionism. That's why I think the key will be engaging with local business and civic groups to counteract that and detach the UUP from the united unionist opposition.

I don't think it's bowing down - I think it's that Sefcovic has been good at engaging in Northern Ireland and has realised (with the Irish government making similar points) there were real issues in Northern Ireland about this and it isn't just some dastardly British plot.

We can always count on our tory apologist.

I think it's engaging with reality and how politics is covered/analysed, instead of being perpetually let down by even anti-Brexit press like Economist/FT etc. That way lies Novara/Squawkbox/the Canary and all the other Corbynite media let down by the mainstream media.

And I don't think the Brexit referendum is the sole lens of what happens with Brexit. There were always conflicting and alternative "leaves" - that's one of the reasons I think they won. What's interesting and striking is that despite a right-wing government they are emphasising the more lexiteer sides of Brexit (wage rises, re-skilling, improving productivity by investing in workers/production here) rather than the more right-wing Brexit (Singapore-on-Thames, bonfire of the regulations, accept chlorinated chicken to do a deal with the US). I always thought the right-wing Brexit was a fantasy because it never had any popular support outside of a fraction of the Tory member (and a lot of their funders/donors) - it feels like that's playing out.

It's still too soon to tell but I suspect the Brexit donor class may end up being disappointed - but that's the nature of political conflict that it creates new political incentives and opportunities and that the outcome not only isn't determined but often doesn't follow what the participants wanted.

[Darth Wagtaros]

So the Brexit minister says that a new Renaissance has begun.  Do you Brits plan on engaging in a new outpouring of artistic and cultural growth along with the occasional plague outburst?

[Josquius]

So the Brexit minister says that a new Renaissance has begun.  Do you Brits plan on engaging in a new outpouring of artistic and cultural growth along with the occasional plague outburst?

Mostly just the division and hate. Hopefully they won't go quite so far as burning people who don't support brexit.