Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Syt]

[Josquius]

This whole thing was gold for the tories.

[Agelastus]

I tend to be very dubious about by-election swings given the number of such seats that promptly flip back to the original party at the next General Election. Hartlepool may be unusual for a by-election due to the direction of the swing, but it is still a by-election.

Labour need the right candidate but I think Hartlepool is likely to become a Labour seat again at the next General Election.

Edit: Yes, I am aware that people say the UKIP vote prevented the Tories winning it in 2019; given the varied parties UKIP gained votes from in that Election I'm not 100% convinced of this now we are "out".

[Sheilbh]

I tend to be very dubious about by-election swings given the number of such seats that promptly flip back to the original party at the next General Election. Hartlepool may be unusual for a by-election due to the direction of the swing, but it is still a by-election.

Labour need the right candidate but I think Hartlepool is likely to become a Labour seat again at the next General Election.

This is fair - but it is only the third time since the war that the government has gained a seat in a by-election

Unless something changes in Labour I'd expect the Tories to keep it.

Edit: Yes, I am aware that people say the UKIP vote prevented the Tories winning it in 2019; given the varied parties UKIP gained votes from in that Election I'm not 100% convinced of this now we are "out".

This is my new unified theory of British politics - everything from Brexit to UKIP to Tory re-elections/Johnsont etc - is ultimately the fault of Nick Clegg.

It looks glorious in Edinburgh with Kirsty Wark - apparently in Scotland turnout is looking very high especially with postal voters. Generally the SNP benefit from high turnout because their vote is the "softest" but we'll see

Might start getting results from Scotland this afternoon.

Edit: Incidentally much as I am in favour of electoral reform the amount of time it takes to get results is the strongest argument in favour of FPTP v STV or PR

[Josquius]

I'm honestly doubtful on Hartlepool coming back anytime soon unless there's a massive Labour victory nationally (also doubtful on).
Last election it was really surprising that of those seats which did go Tory, Hartlepool somehow remained Labour.
I think we're probably looking at a Tory term or two there, with things only turning back as it becomes clear that wasn't the miracle overnight solution they hoped for.
The Tories scored over 50%, the usual explanation of the opposition vote being split that applies in many other of the flipped seats doesn't apply there, and the town's problems run deep. Its a fringe town of fringe towns. There's no clear solution for how to restore it even given a massive budget and interest.

One encouraging sign I guess is that the rate of decline is much smaller vs. 2019 than previously. Though there you do have to consider that there is a natural bottom to Labour support somewhere.

[Sheilbh]

From Patrick Maguire noting the first Tory win this morning (from third place) in Clay Cross North:

Patrick Maguire
@patrickkmaguire
Symbolic stuff. This place once elected a slate of Labour councillors who were so left-wing they refused to accede to legislation hiking council home rents by a pound, were taken to court, convicted and then disqualified from office.

[Agelastus]

I'm honestly doubtful on Hartlepool coming back anytime soon unless there's a massive Labour victory nationally (also doubtful on).
Last election it was really surprising that of those seats which did go Tory, Hartlepool somehow remained Labour.
I think we're probably looking at a Tory term or two there, with things only turning back as it becomes clear that wasn't the miracle overnight solution they hoped for.
The Tories scored over 50%, the usual explanation of the opposition vote being split that applies in many other of the flipped seats doesn't apply there, and the town's problems run deep. Its a fringe town of fringe towns. There's no clear solution for how to restore it even given a massive budget and interest.

One encouraging sign I guess is that the rate of decline is much smaller vs. 2019 than previously. Though there you do have to consider that there is a natural bottom to Labour support somewhere.

Looking at the last 20 years of election results Hartlepool has been pretty volatile with parties gaining and losing support; plus an independent took 10% of the vote this time which may reflect either a popular local candidate or a "none of the above" moment (I freely admit I know too little about the local politics there to know.)

I suspect Hartlepool is going to be competitive for Labour at the next election, although the Tories probably do have the advantage.

[Sheilbh]

Looking at the last 20 years of election results Hartlepool has been pretty volatile with parties gaining and losing support; plus an independent took 10% of the vote this time which may reflect either a popular local candidate or a "none of the above" moment (I freely admit I know too little about the local politics there to know.)

H'angus the ex-Mayor?

[Syt]

Every time I read Hartlepool I think:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_hanger

[Josquius]

From what I gather the independent was the "BNP" candidate of the moment.  Its a common tactic of theirs to run on a "All political parties are scams!" independent platform when there's no big national far right party de jour or they think they can get more support that way.
Though it is surprising she still did so well; her vote is more capturable by the tories than by labour.
I could be wrong, I've not heard much about her, but a look over interviews and her facebook has a lot of the usual dog whistles.

[Sheilbh]

I'm really surprised how many people from all sides of the Labour Party seem to have it out for Starmer this morning. It seems a bit extreme

[Josquius]

I'm really surprised how many people from all sides of the Labour Party seem to have it out for Starmer this morning. It seems a bit extreme

Its interesting as you have the usual suspects going "haha labour tears today" when all I seem to be seeing is labour gloating? :/

[Sheilbh]

Its interesting as you have the usual suspects going "haha labour tears today" when all I seem to be seeing is labour gloating? :/

Labour gloating? At what?

I just mean I'm seeing very strong attacks on Starmer from the ultra-Blairites/centrists and from the left. I think the results are looking bad but everyone needs to calm down a little.

It sort of makes sense I suppose - for the left they need to prove Starmer will fail and this is why Labour should have stayed on the Corbynite lines; for the centre they need to point out Starmer isn't what they wanted either so their alternative hasn't even been tried.

[alfred russel]

I tend to be very dubious about by-election swings given the number of such seats that promptly flip back to the original party at the next General Election. Hartlepool may be unusual for a by-election due to the direction of the swing, but it is still a by-election.

Labour need the right candidate but I think Hartlepool is likely to become a Labour seat again at the next General Election.

This is fair - but it is only the third time since the war that the government has gained a seat in a by-election

Unless something changes in Labour I'd expect the Tories to keep it.

Edit: Yes, I am aware that people say the UKIP vote prevented the Tories winning it in 2019; given the varied parties UKIP gained votes from in that Election I'm not 100% convinced of this now we are "out".

This is my new unified theory of British politics - everything from Brexit to UKIP to Tory re-elections/Johnsont etc - is ultimately the fault of Nick Clegg.

It looks glorious in Edinburgh with Kirsty Wark - apparently in Scotland turnout is looking very high especially with postal voters. Generally the SNP benefit from high turnout because their vote is the "softest" but we'll see

Might start getting results from Scotland this afternoon.

Edit: Incidentally much as I am in favour of electoral reform the amount of time it takes to get results is the strongest argument in favour of FPTP v STV or PR

I think the early results in England are moderately negative for the SNP. A conservative surge with a labour collapse is probably negative for them...at the constituency level the conservatives only had 7 seats versus labour's 3.

The SNP was in shouting distance of all 3 of Labour's seats last time, and blow them out in this election and take them down to 0 constituency seats.

But they were in shouting distance of 6 of the 7 conservative seats, and more ominously the conservatives were close behind for a few seats that the SNP holds. The SNP won every close seat against Labour.

20 years ago who would have thought that Labour would be the third party in Scotland?

[Sheilbh]

First Scottish results from Orkney (which like Shetland is quite a unique constituency)

There's not too much to learn from it - obviously very strong Lib Dem result but a little swing of 5% to the SNP.

I'm not sure yet if we can draw across from local council elections in England to Scotland yet - not least because they have very different voting systems and in Scotland especially people tactically vote because they know that's necessary in the constituency seat. Often they do it to elect/stop a nationalist/unionist candidate.

People are far more likely to just vote what they're feeling/give someone a kicking in local elections.